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22 Mar 16
12:08
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11 Jul 11
A tad bit late into this with a thread, on account of expecting MC to initiate proceedings for us, but I understand he is experiencing some technical difficulties not of his choosing, so will put this thread up even as stage 2 begins.
Nevertheless, not much has really occurred in the 176km loop around Calella to start in stage 1, so if anything it'll be interesting to get some thoughts down on the main GT contenders for this season, since stages 3 and 4 are where the GC battles are likely to occur. Incidentally, the La Molina (Alp) stage looks more decisive in affecting the GC than it actually has been proven to be over the years, with only Purito in 2014 confirming its importance when he won the stage to win on GC.
**** Chris Froome: Came back from illness after his Tirreno-Adriatico non-start here last year and failed to get going, finishing in 71st place. Best here was a 6th in 2014.
He received no appearance money for his participation in the Herald Sun Tour during the Australian cycling season in February, where he came out in combatative fashion, winning on MC, GC and winning the short 122km Arthurs Seat climb stage. Therefore, he was keen to get a light, early race test to gauge his condition.
Has been illness and injury free so far this season, and has shown he can show up on the start line in near top condition with little in the way of competitive riding. Warrants respect. Classy type. Special.
*** Richie Porte: Won this last year.
First start in the BMC jersey was in the Australian Nationals, where he finished 2nd in the ITT and had a DNF in the Road Race. Next, 2nd on GC in TDU, winning the queen -- Willunga Hill -- stage, then poor in Oman due to a repeat of his 'piriformis syndrome'. Paris-Nice was his target, which was preceded with a two week training session in Monaco, and his 3rd place finish on GC was better than I expected, however whilst he animated the climb of Col d'Eze and finished off well for 3rd, he couldn't ride away from Bertie.
Suggesting he is close to regaining the dour quality which had described him as a GT contender. Looks close to finding top form. One of the main contenders. Watch closely.
** Joaquim Rodriguez: Has won this stage race in 2010 and 2014, and also 2nd in 2013. Won the La Molina stage and held the lead to the finish in Barcelona.
This season on GC: Valencia 22nd. DNF Algarve stage 2. 81st Tirreno-Adriatico. Basically, no form.
Appears to ride well in this race and it would not surprise to see him holding the Leader's Jersey at some point in the race. Cunning type with loads of experience. Keep safe.
* Nairo Quintana: 5th in 2014, 4th in 2013 best results, here.
Repeated his 3rd place finish of 2015 in San Luis to open his season. Then rode in his climbing, high-altitude Nationals race for 4th, one month later.
Highly talented rider who hasn't set the road on fire thus far, and appears slow to get going nowadays. Take on trust.
* Fabio Aru: 6th in 2015, best result here.
Opened his season in Valencia for a 6th place finish on GC. Was beaten by Contador in the Algarve of the mountain stage 5 by 20 secs, however he couldn't repeat that on GC and finished behind some ordinary riders for 9th, nearly 90secs behind winner G, and nearly a minute behind Contador who finished in 3rd.
Has not done enough to suggest he will be prominent here, however his youth suggests he can be competitive at the drop of hat. Take on trust.
1/2* Alberto Contador: Stripped from his victory on GC here in 2011, so his best result is a 2nd in 2014.
Opened his season slowly in the Algarve, leaving his claim late until the final stage 5, which he won, but where he failed to establish a lead on GC and he had to settle for 3rd, some 26 secs down on G. Next up in Paris-Nice, he was much more decisive against race leader G in the final stage 7, opening up a race-winning move up the final climb but ultimately failing on winning the GC when Wellens won the stage. Looked severely out-of-shape during stage 6 near the top of the moutaintop finish, where he just could not crack G after multiple unconvincing attacks, and in fact near the line was passed by G.
Looked old and slow last start, beaten comprehensively by inferior opposition, and may be doing his GT ambitions a disservice by showing up here in this company at this point of his condition. Discount.
Nevertheless, not much has really occurred in the 176km loop around Calella to start in stage 1, so if anything it'll be interesting to get some thoughts down on the main GT contenders for this season, since stages 3 and 4 are where the GC battles are likely to occur. Incidentally, the La Molina (Alp) stage looks more decisive in affecting the GC than it actually has been proven to be over the years, with only Purito in 2014 confirming its importance when he won the stage to win on GC.
**** Chris Froome: Came back from illness after his Tirreno-Adriatico non-start here last year and failed to get going, finishing in 71st place. Best here was a 6th in 2014.
He received no appearance money for his participation in the Herald Sun Tour during the Australian cycling season in February, where he came out in combatative fashion, winning on MC, GC and winning the short 122km Arthurs Seat climb stage. Therefore, he was keen to get a light, early race test to gauge his condition.
Has been illness and injury free so far this season, and has shown he can show up on the start line in near top condition with little in the way of competitive riding. Warrants respect. Classy type. Special.
*** Richie Porte: Won this last year.
First start in the BMC jersey was in the Australian Nationals, where he finished 2nd in the ITT and had a DNF in the Road Race. Next, 2nd on GC in TDU, winning the queen -- Willunga Hill -- stage, then poor in Oman due to a repeat of his 'piriformis syndrome'. Paris-Nice was his target, which was preceded with a two week training session in Monaco, and his 3rd place finish on GC was better than I expected, however whilst he animated the climb of Col d'Eze and finished off well for 3rd, he couldn't ride away from Bertie.
Suggesting he is close to regaining the dour quality which had described him as a GT contender. Looks close to finding top form. One of the main contenders. Watch closely.
** Joaquim Rodriguez: Has won this stage race in 2010 and 2014, and also 2nd in 2013. Won the La Molina stage and held the lead to the finish in Barcelona.
This season on GC: Valencia 22nd. DNF Algarve stage 2. 81st Tirreno-Adriatico. Basically, no form.
Appears to ride well in this race and it would not surprise to see him holding the Leader's Jersey at some point in the race. Cunning type with loads of experience. Keep safe.
* Nairo Quintana: 5th in 2014, 4th in 2013 best results, here.
Repeated his 3rd place finish of 2015 in San Luis to open his season. Then rode in his climbing, high-altitude Nationals race for 4th, one month later.
Highly talented rider who hasn't set the road on fire thus far, and appears slow to get going nowadays. Take on trust.
* Fabio Aru: 6th in 2015, best result here.
Opened his season in Valencia for a 6th place finish on GC. Was beaten by Contador in the Algarve of the mountain stage 5 by 20 secs, however he couldn't repeat that on GC and finished behind some ordinary riders for 9th, nearly 90secs behind winner G, and nearly a minute behind Contador who finished in 3rd.
Has not done enough to suggest he will be prominent here, however his youth suggests he can be competitive at the drop of hat. Take on trust.
1/2* Alberto Contador: Stripped from his victory on GC here in 2011, so his best result is a 2nd in 2014.
Opened his season slowly in the Algarve, leaving his claim late until the final stage 5, which he won, but where he failed to establish a lead on GC and he had to settle for 3rd, some 26 secs down on G. Next up in Paris-Nice, he was much more decisive against race leader G in the final stage 7, opening up a race-winning move up the final climb but ultimately failing on winning the GC when Wellens won the stage. Looked severely out-of-shape during stage 6 near the top of the moutaintop finish, where he just could not crack G after multiple unconvincing attacks, and in fact near the line was passed by G.
Looked old and slow last start, beaten comprehensively by inferior opposition, and may be doing his GT ambitions a disservice by showing up here in this company at this point of his condition. Discount.
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I've gone the other way from you on Contador, but I don't disagree with anything you say above and it forms part of my thinking.
Contador has been beaten up by domestiques all season so far. In Algarve they let him go because he wasn't a challenge to GC and although he won the stage the fact they let him go as an irrelevance will sting. In Paris-Nice when he was dropped by Zakarin and Thomas on the MTF that would have further annoyed him. As he's never won here and is currently on a last hurrah I think he'll be more motivated than usual to take this, the chance of him getting popped in Spain are zero. I've had some tiny interest in Mathias Frank, Tom Dumoulin, Uran & Bardet. All overpriced IMO and likely to be let go if the big names mark each other. Good luck all. |
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Forgot prices, apologies.
Bardet 25/1 Uran 40/1 Dumoulin 100/1 Franck 200/1 All e/w |
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My apologies for no prices. I put up the GT contenders to set a foundation for discussion and inspiration ahead of the season proper for them, but obviously any of the riders you mentioned (plus others) have a chance to win, particularly Dumoulin and Bardet. I've just thrown a lazy few coins on Froome.
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My choices are for Stage 3 I forgot to put that up. Dumoulin has gone home so that's not a good start.
Sky on the front with 32k left with only Weening up the road. |
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Contador certainly came out of the La Molina stage best of the GC men, however it was a clear example of his cunning nature more than his good form. He just worked in patiently on the main group whilst the others launched their attacks. Quintana, Porte, and Bardet all attacked at some point in the final few kms, but it was Froome who was the only one to answer those attacks on multiple occasions, so he certainly had some excuses to fade on the final ramp so badly. Nevertheless, his whirling cadence was distinctly missing when he attempted to ride off the front, so he'll need to employ a more patient approach on today's stage and leave his attack late to commit with "bury-mode", if it is there. I think a more patient ride is required, but SKY, whilst controlling the front of the race heaped too much pressure on Froome, and with that role now on the shoulders of TCS, Froome will be tested in a different way.
Contador has done well, but he hasn't impressed me. Froome can improve on that performance in this different role, he showed he can back-up well after a tough climbing ride as he did here in Australia at the start if the season, so am expecting a better showing. Porte might be better suited than his teammate TJVG on today's stage, and he looks like he has some improvement also. Quintana may require more riding. However, Contador is going to sink or swim, and whilst I accept what CJ stated earlier about him, I am still willing to discount his chances on what was a very soft outing for him, yesterday. Cheers, SP |
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Got my money back essentially with a 3rd for Bardet yesterday. The pace on the final climb played for Dan Martin superbly and with no Valverde he wasn't really challenged. Hugh Carthy had a massive ride yesterday, I'm wondering if he went all in for that and he'll have nothing left for today. If he's there again today within the top 20 I'll be very impressed.
I don't really have a bet for today as I think the break has a really good chance of getting it, or an attack from far out if the break are reeled in. That said I'm willing to guess into the wind and pick out a few outsiders. I really fancied Arroyo, but bookie of choice(read necessity) isn't offering him as an option. So I settled on.. Ruben Plaza 50/1 Michael Woods 125/1 Robert Gesink 150/1 All e/w. I'm backing Contador for the GC for reasons alluded to above that don't have a lot to do with cycling. |
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Very interesting and entertaining stage. Fair play to Contador, he was very much in Froome's position of yesterday, having to close down attacks whilst being much more exposed on the road than Froome was yesterday. Firstly he shut down TJVG, then Porte, then Quintana, and then he was being bruised by Quintana until the earlier role took its toll and Quintana went clear. It was really nice to see Quintana role along as effortlessly as when he first came on the scene, but Contador did well to withstand so much damage.
I think it is now obvious that Froome is now a long way off his condition, last time he was riding like this he began to find bad luck in races, so this may turn into a problem for him if he doesn't find some answers soon. The questions were evident quite early when he was repeating that position on his bike of yesterday. Big danger signs for him. Looks like a big training block in SA to console himself before ramping up his Tour preparations in Romandie and Dauphine, but he'll be hurt here psychologically, big let down. So, a different type of test for Contador tomorrow. MOV, with the better team to TCS will want this for Quintana, and Porte appears to be finding good confidence. |
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obviously Froome hasn't started his doping regime yet
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Katusha must be pumping big $'s into the sport,
they make Lance look look like a super clean rider |
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kick Catalunya out of the EU
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