*Paris-Nice* Sunday 6th March - Sunday 13th March

Key Stages

Monday 7th March & Tuesday 8th March - Stages 1 & 2
These two flat stages should end in bunch sprints and we shouldn't see any time gaps, although looking at the weather we could well see some crosswinds so anyone with stage or outright aspirations will have to keep their wits about them.

Wednesday 9th March - Stage 3 (168km)
This is the first stage that could have a significant bearing on the outright winner. The finish on Mont Brouilly is nasty enough with 3km @ 7.7% and a final km at over 9%, but the stage itself will be very hard. The stage is only 168km long, which should ensure a decent pace. But it will be hard to control as there are 7 categorised climbs in total, with 6 of them coming in the last 90km. This early in the season we should see a number of dropped riders here. The peloton get a look at the finish 30km from the end of the stage but then do a loop round before coming back round to the finish and the final Cat 2 climb. It isn't possible to win the outright on this stage but it certainly is possible to lose it.
Stage 3 Map

Stage 3 Profile

Stage 3 finish


Thursday 10th March - Stage 4 (193.5km)
Although there is a Cat 2 climb, the Cote de Saint-Uze 30km from the finish, 2.8km @ 6.5%, and a couple of uncategorised climbs in the finale, this should come back together for a bunch sprint.

Friday 11th March - Stage 5 (198km)
With 5 categorised climbs, including up to Chalet Reynard on Ventoux there is plenty of climbing today but the final 20km are flat after two short steep Cat 2 climbs. We shouldn't see any big time gaps today in the outright but it will be interesting to see which sprinters can cling onto the group and fight out the finish.

Saturday 12th March - Stage 6 (177km)
7 climbs and an uphill finish at La Madonne d'Utelle. Although the final climb is fairly steady the preceding miles of climbing will make sure we have a fairly small group comming to the end and the final few hundred yard are above 10% meaning someone could go a long way towards winning outright by winning this stage and taking 10 bonus seconds.
Stage 6 Map

Stage 6 Profile

Stage 6 finish


Sunday 13th March - Stage 7 (141km)
This looks like a well designed route and this final stage could be explosive if we have a close GC. None of the 6 categorised climbs are in themselves that hard, but this is a short stage and should be taken at a fast pace. This will ensure its hard for the team in yellow to control. With a climb up the Col d'Eze ahead of a 16km descent into Nice to finish things off, bravery could be well rewarded here, and there's every chance the jersey could change hands on the final line.
Stage 7 map

stage 7 profile

stage 7 finish


I've taken Romain Bardet for the outright here. The young French rider has shown he has the nous and bottle to make the winning moves from small groups. He's a cracking climber, and a super descender. 25/1.

Today's stage has a few narrow "white roads" in the finale which should be quite a spectacle although not sure the pros will agree

Stuck a few cheeky each ways on as well in case this turns into a real grind. Bonifazio 50/1, Bevin 80/1, Terpstra 80/1, Theuns 125/1 and best of all big Stan Stannard 250/1. What's not to love about Stan today? Cold, wet, snowy, track roads near the end...could be a decent chance for him to stretch the legs off the front ahead of the big classics.

Nice call. Bouhanni must be thinking "anyone but Demare". Good that it split up in the wind before the gravel - made it a bit safer

Very good decision that by the commissars, imo. Don't see enough of it at the WT level.

I've missed the last few days and the start of Tirreno-Adriatico due to work commitments. Going to be watching the highlights today on catch up. Looks like this should be a sprint stage today, time for Kittel to open his account?

Had a stab at Gallopin at 33/1 for stage 5.

Great win that by Lutsenko, timed the attack very well. We were looking for the right type but he didn't enter my thoughts.

After TCS were sitting in behind SKY doing all the work and Contador jumped out to get sprint bonus seconds, I was convinced he was going to win the stage and take the Leader's Jersey. And this was confirmed when Majka punished the peloton with his pace-setting duties on the steep section with Contador sitting on comfortably. TGA must have been very grateful for SKY's work as it gave Dumoulin a comfortable ride, but evidently he is not there with his condition and whilst he nearly bridged to Contador group on the final climb, in much the same way as in Oman when he patiently rode back into contention, he spent himself by that effort and faded out badly in sight of the summit. +32 secs behind now requires a move which is not supported by the evidence and I think he can no longer win. I mean, he would need to attack near the top of the Col d'Eze, clear out, and then daredevil power-descend for 15kms to gain bonus stage win time and hold onto a 22 secs gap. Highly unlikely, so that project is toast!

Contador on the other hand will be livid after that loss, and being only +15 secs behind, really only requires a 10 sec gap on the descent to beat G. That however will be difficult to achieve given how strong SKY showed themselves to be, and whilst Contador has Majka, G showed he has Henao, who was unfailing and full devoted to G today, and the big reason why he pulled out such an impressive ride. However, G can be fragile when backing up on such terrain, so 1.) if TCS can assemble on the front of the peloton and pile on the pressure to give the peloton another hard ride as they did today, and 2.) if Contador can repeat his attacks of today near the top of the Col d'Eze tomorrow, then the evidence would suggest that Contador can crack G and open a gap near the top. Nevertheless, there are a lot of "ifs" required and Contador is not the best of descenders any longer, and whilst I would maintain my faith in a classy and cunning rider such as Contador with such a small gap and time on offer on the line, who admittedly was shown up by G today, I think SKY are strong enough to defend against TCS and keep G in the Leader's Jersey by the finale.

With the liquidity being the way it is in this market, my only viable option is to bank G, but that would require a price of evens, which is looking suspect.

Incidentally, Lutsenko was included in the market close to my forecast at 31/1, however he was 80/1 with the Books, so that was much closer to his true price given his performance out the back door.

Cheers,
SP

Sensational ride from G to bring it back when looking on the floor.