*Strade Bianche* 5th March 2016

*** Peter Sagan 31st last year, some +5 mins behind when lost contact after a strong attack by Vanmarcke. So far this year he has sent strong signals to the peloton that the Rainbow Jersey on his shoulders is not there by accident. He is willing to either attack solo to create a selection and then also combine in a group to consolidate the breakaway, and after which he displayed little in the way of fatigue for a 7th last start in KBK, and a 2nd behind GVA in OHN prior to that, where perhaps an energy gel might have helped. TCS have assembled a strong team for him, expecting a commanding performance. Loves this race and is suited by the parcours. Has given strong indications he fears no one in the peloton. Looks primed for this. 9/1 various. Deserves 9/2 favouritism. Excellent WIN ONLY value. Sure to make presence felt. The one to beat.

* Diego Rosa 26yo talent out of ITA, riding for AST. First start for the 2015 season was in this race for a 5th place finish, bettering his 66th place finish in 2014. Confirmed his strength and ability in 2015 by bookending his season in Il Lomardia for another 5th place finish in what is a much more difficult race. In a team of stars, he is nevertheless suggesting that he has the dour qualities to work as a domestique and still have a kick for the finale. Should be 120/1. Likely to hit 65/1 prior to the start. Currently 40/1 best with PP.  Interesting proposition. Worthy of very close E/W consideration.

1/2* Sonny Colbrelli 25 yo rider from ITA has decided to remain with BAR even though his manager fielded unsubstantiated interest for his services from WT teams. 56th here last year, came after a slow start to the season. This year he has had a cracking start, winning the GP Lugano last start and finishing 2nd two weeks prior in a tough Italian race. Excellent E/W value. 250/1 best with BF/SB. Improving type. Expect forward showing. Consider.

1/8* Robert Gesink    29yo Dutchman lacks experience over the white gravel roads of Tuscany with this being only his first start in his 11-season career, however he is suited by the distance and profile, has reported positive reconnaissance from parts of the course, and is coming off a fair, early start to the season with a 25th place finish on GC in the Algarve. 200/1 best with PP. Excellent E/W value. May surprise with a strong performance. Consider.

LATE SCRATCHING: Diego Rosa.
Gone to Paris.

Okay, now that I have stopped shaking I can attempt a short review, of sorts.

No surprise to see that the main -- race-winning -- selection was made by Sagan. He simply does not fear anyone in the peloton, and when he let rip at about 20kms from home, a perfect distance I thought (what's that gravel climb called?), given that the peloton knew the fireworks would be set off once the four-man breakaway were brought back. I believe Spartacus and Stybar had to work a little to join Sagan, but once these three got together it did look imposing. Expected GVA and especially Kwiatkowski to bridge across soon after, since the latter rider showed his superb descending skills and gaining some metres on the descent just before Sagan's selection, however this chase group opened a break very quickly and the peloton looked flat after hard early riding. I'm not sure everyone noticed, but on the road section at about 12-14kms I believe, Spartacus showed he was on good sensations when he disguised a turn with an attack, however Stybar was going well and he didn't miss the importance of getting back on the wheel of Spartacus at that point. A little bit of loss of concentration and that was the bike race for Spartacus right there, I thought.

This was a frustrating moment actually, because I was under the impression that Stybar was best-suited of the four for the finale, and believed that Sagan and/or Spartacus had to attack some distance out, like what Brambilla did, and solo, otherwise they would be disadvantaged by the steepness of the finale and it would be a repeat defence by Stybar.

Nevertheless, we know how classy Spartacus is and given this is his farewell season, he was going to leave his guts on the streets of Siena in order to take the victory for himself, I just didn't realise how impressive that was going to be to witness. Very special stuff. He was an unknown quantity for me going into the race given the news surrounding his retirement at the end of the season taking the focus from off his likely performance, he showed what a destructive acceleration he has in such situations. Absolutely brilliant to punch on Brambilla and hold Stybar out, actually stretching away a little before the line.

Sagan was never going to win with a repeat of the Kwiatkowski scenario repeating, and whilst he did impress me to make the selection, he did also show that his characteristics are changing bit-by-bit as he asserts his dominance over the peloton as a kind of Mafia Boss, suggesting that the flatter cobbled classics are really going to be his staging point for battle this season, particularly GW, E3, and Roubaix.

Good ride by Fuglsang, very impressive.
GVA looked flat, and then tired.
Gesink was there for a long time, albeit camped on the back of that rapidly thinning peloton.
Never even heard Colbrelli's name mentioned once.
Nibali, oh dear!

BTW, anyone know what Terpstra paid in La Samyn?

Cheers,
SP