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The last World Tour race of the year this weekend, the Tour of Lombardy is known as the Race of the Falling Leaves due to its autumnal position in the calendar. Il Lombardia is one of the oldest races in the calendar, first being run in in 1905. This is one of the 5 cycling monuments and a last chance to salvage something for those who are looking to save their season or secure a contract. This is known as a climbers classic, and whilst you have to be a very good climber to win this but a number of recent editions have been won by riders with a fast finish too. This year's race looks a little tougher than last year, 245km long and with some extra tough looking climbs in the latter sections of the race, and the course looks pretty good so we could be in for a cracking race. The first 170km aren't too bad, with only a couple of climbs that shouldn't be too challenging, but the last 75kms of the race are hard enough to ensure this race is won by a top quality climber.
Startlist
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Il_Lombardia_2015-startlist
Coverage
Eurosport 2.30pm (UK)
Il Lombardia Winners
2014 | MARTIN Daniel
2013 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2012 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2011 | ZAUGG Oliver
2010 | GILBERT Philippe
2009 | GILBERT Philippe
2008 | CUNEGO Damiano
2007 | CUNEGO Damiano
2006 | BETTINI Paolo
2005 | BETTINI Paolo
2014 Il Lombardia
1.MARTIN Daniel 6:25:33
2.VALVERDE Alejandro 0:01
3.COSTA Rui ,,
4.WELLENS Tim ,,
5.SáNCHEZ Samuel ,,
6.ALBASINI Michael ,,
7.GILBERT Philippe ,,
8.RODRíGUEZ Joaquim ,,
9.ARU Fabio ,,
10.NOCENTINI Rinaldo 0:14
In a complete reversal of last year's race they start in Bergamo and finish in Como. Bergamo is Lombardy's second busiest city after Milan which is 25km to the South West, and has Italy's 4th busiest airport, Il Caravaggio. Bergamo is the gateway to the Italian Alps, which begin just North of the City. They head South out of Bergamo before turning East then rotating anti-clockwise round Bergamo and heading West towards Lake Como.
The first climb comes at 50km, the Colle Gallo. This is 7.5km at 6%, although as the first couple of kilometres are really just false flat, the true average of the last 5km or so is more like 7%. There's another slightly easier climb at 110km, but the really challenging stuff starts at around 170km, with 75km to go. First there is the climb of Madonna Des Ghisallo, and then the very steep Muro Di Sormano.
Colma Di Sormano is a tough climb and should really weaken the legs, and even see some large gaps appear. The first 5km of the climb are steady at 6.6% but then the gradient suddenly ramps up. The wall of Sormano is 2km long and averages 16%. This section has ramps of 25% and will really hurt, but as it is 50km from the end it won't be all-decisive. From the summit there is a long and technical descent, before roughly 15km of flatter terrain and then the final two climbs as they come into Como.
They start the penultimate climb, Civiglio, just after going through Como for the first time. For anyone with designs on winning this race, this climb represents an ideal opportunity to test the legs of your rivals. Civiglio is only 4.2km long, but it averages 9.7% with the steepest sections near the top, where there is more than 1km over 10%. There's a short descent back into Como and then they hit the final climb.
San Fermo Della Battaglia is 2.7km and an average of 7.2% with a short ramp of 10% near the top. They crest the summit with just over 5km to go, and once again they descend back down into Como. The final descent is not too steep, although there are some sections up to 8% and it will be taken extremely quickly. The road then flattens out as they come back into Como and under the flamme rouge. Como is a very popular tourist destination in Lombardy, due to its proximity to Lake Como and the Alps.
Favourites for this will include Alejandro Valverde, who seems to retain a remarkable level of consistency throughout the whole season, and was 5th in the World Championships. Vincenzo Nibali has been in fantastic form since his disastrous Vuelta, with two wins and two other podiums in the hilly end of season Italian semi-classics. Rui Costa was 3rd last year and Rafal Makja filled the same position in 2013 and is bang in form, coming second in Milan Torino on Thursday. Other possible contenders are Phillipe Gilbert and Bauke Mollema, but I fancy 2-time winner Joaquin Rodriguez to win for a third time in Lombardy.
Map
Profile
The last World Tour race of the year this weekend, the Tour of Lombardy is known as the Race of the Falling Leaves due to its autumnal position in the calendar. Il Lombardia is one of the oldest races in the calendar, first being run in in 1905. This is one of the 5 cycling monuments and a last chance to salvage something for those who are looking to save their season or secure a contract. This is known as a climbers classic, and whilst you have to be a very good climber to win this but a number of recent editions have been won by riders with a fast finish too. This year's race looks a little tougher than last year, 245km long and with some extra tough looking climbs in the latter sections of the race, and the course looks pretty good so we could be in for a cracking race. The first 170km aren't too bad, with only a couple of climbs that shouldn't be too challenging, but the last 75kms of the race are hard enough to ensure this race is won by a top quality climber.
Startlist
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Il_Lombardia_2015-startlist
Coverage
Eurosport 2.30pm (UK)
Il Lombardia Winners
2014 | MARTIN Daniel
2013 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2012 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2011 | ZAUGG Oliver
2010 | GILBERT Philippe
2009 | GILBERT Philippe
2008 | CUNEGO Damiano
2007 | CUNEGO Damiano
2006 | BETTINI Paolo
2005 | BETTINI Paolo
2014 Il Lombardia
1.MARTIN Daniel 6:25:33
2.VALVERDE Alejandro 0:01
3.COSTA Rui ,,
4.WELLENS Tim ,,
5.SáNCHEZ Samuel ,,
6.ALBASINI Michael ,,
7.GILBERT Philippe ,,
8.RODRíGUEZ Joaquim ,,
9.ARU Fabio ,,
10.NOCENTINI Rinaldo 0:14
In a complete reversal of last year's race they start in Bergamo and finish in Como. Bergamo is Lombardy's second busiest city after Milan which is 25km to the South West, and has Italy's 4th busiest airport, Il Caravaggio. Bergamo is the gateway to the Italian Alps, which begin just North of the City. They head South out of Bergamo before turning East then rotating anti-clockwise round Bergamo and heading West towards Lake Como.
The first climb comes at 50km, the Colle Gallo. This is 7.5km at 6%, although as the first couple of kilometres are really just false flat, the true average of the last 5km or so is more like 7%. There's another slightly easier climb at 110km, but the really challenging stuff starts at around 170km, with 75km to go. First there is the climb of Madonna Des Ghisallo, and then the very steep Muro Di Sormano.
Colma Di Sormano is a tough climb and should really weaken the legs, and even see some large gaps appear. The first 5km of the climb are steady at 6.6% but then the gradient suddenly ramps up. The wall of Sormano is 2km long and averages 16%. This section has ramps of 25% and will really hurt, but as it is 50km from the end it won't be all-decisive. From the summit there is a long and technical descent, before roughly 15km of flatter terrain and then the final two climbs as they come into Como.
They start the penultimate climb, Civiglio, just after going through Como for the first time. For anyone with designs on winning this race, this climb represents an ideal opportunity to test the legs of your rivals. Civiglio is only 4.2km long, but it averages 9.7% with the steepest sections near the top, where there is more than 1km over 10%. There's a short descent back into Como and then they hit the final climb.
San Fermo Della Battaglia is 2.7km and an average of 7.2% with a short ramp of 10% near the top. They crest the summit with just over 5km to go, and once again they descend back down into Como. The final descent is not too steep, although there are some sections up to 8% and it will be taken extremely quickly. The road then flattens out as they come back into Como and under the flamme rouge. Como is a very popular tourist destination in Lombardy, due to its proximity to Lake Como and the Alps.
Favourites for this will include Alejandro Valverde, who seems to retain a remarkable level of consistency throughout the whole season, and was 5th in the World Championships. Vincenzo Nibali has been in fantastic form since his disastrous Vuelta, with two wins and two other podiums in the hilly end of season Italian semi-classics. Rui Costa was 3rd last year and Rafal Makja filled the same position in 2013 and is bang in form, coming second in Milan Torino on Thursday. Other possible contenders are Phillipe Gilbert and Bauke Mollema, but I fancy 2-time winner Joaquin Rodriguez to win for a third time in Lombardy.
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I'm a Valverde fan but not worth backing at the price.
Nibali has to get away on his own to win, can't really see that happen, he'll be marked. Rest of the top 10 favourites are great riders but not really sure I see winners. Purito's form has been really solid, and Gilbert has looked really good at times, not sure Dan Martin has it in the legs this year. Rafa Majka at 33/1... that interests me a lot. |
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I backed Majka on here at 33s after Milan-Torino he's my other bet so far after Purito
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This race has a very strong spread for multiple winners, so Dan Martin comes into consideration on that basis. For instance, in 13 editions since 2002 there have been a staggering 5 back-to-back winners representing a 38% strike-rate. However, Dan Martin's first race back from crashing out of the Vuelta on stage 8, was only a 14th-place finish, some 51 secs back in Milano-Torino. Last year on the other hand, he was coming off the back of a 7th-place finish on GC in the Vuelta and a hard ride in the Worlds for 84th. He is sure to be improved on his last start ride, and is a classy-type, but I think he might just be missing some race-winning sharpness, and minor claims might be best this time around. 20/1 is best, presently. Likely to drift out into 25/1. Hard to discount. Take on trust. I don't like Purito, I think he is just making up the numbers and the season is looking too long for him. Valverde is ultra consistent here, going 2/2 last two starts, but I don't see any value at 5/1.
*** Vincenzo Nibali Was indicating strong motivation and showing good form prior to the Worlds in Italy, however he was never really involved after ITA asserted themselves at the head of the peloton late in the race, going on to a disappointing 42nd-place finish. Three days later, and back on Italian soil, he attacked twice to solo to victory after AST worked for him in the Tre Valli Varesine. Suited by the parcours. Legitimate favourite. 5/1 best. Go close. ** Tim Wellens Confirmed his impressive potential at the top level this year by winning the Eneco Tour on GC, in addition to winning stage 6. Won the GP Montreal before only riding the TTT at the Worlds, so looks fresh at this late season block of racing. Showed his inexperience last year when going too early on the final climb, and finishing in 4th-place. 20/1 best, is fair value. Will require some luck. Improving type. Warrants respect. * Philippe Gilbert Was prominent at the Worlds with a 10th-place finish. Back-to-back winner of this race in 2009-10. 7th-place finish, last year. 22/1. One of the main contenders. Consider closely. 1/2* Rafal Majka Looks to be regaining the strong form which saw him secure a podium at the Vuelta after his 2nd-place finish in Milan-Torino on Thursday. 25/1 best, is fair value. Looks to be coming into this at the right time. Will give a good account of himself. Worthy of close consideration. Good luck to all, SP |
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Purito is out after a crash in training. Think Nibali is a worthy favourite looking at this. His form has been incredible recently. He probably has to win solo, but can attack on the Civiglio or Battaglia or the descents. Looks like we are going to get some rain at some stage as well. This surely helps him too.
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Henao is a rider I've had in mind for this race for a while. Pozzovivo and Schleck also look worth an interest.
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Tifosi going mental. Nibali has 40 seconds on the Battaglia.
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it's all in the descending when you know the roads well....
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Moreno dragging Nibali back!
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Go Vincenzo!
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Brilliant Nibali, what a legend!
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Cracking ride by Pinot as well
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That's it from me for the season. See you in Australia in January lads.
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nice one Mary...have a well deserved break...and keep up the good work.
Enjoyed your posts this season...ta very much. |
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Hope they settle on this route now. Great spectacle
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Monumental Nibali -- I think when he sat down with AST DS the night before to formulate a plan for this race they pretty-much came up with what we actually saw come to fruition. He obviously wanted that gap prior to the top of the Civiglio climb, but clearly on good sensations he just attacked on the downhill instead, opened a gap in the blink of an eye and the descent was absolutely thrilling as he stretched his lead. Enjoyed Moreno having a solo dig, but even if he got on, Nibali would've got away again on the next descent, I believe.
If Nibali can ride in such a patient and committed way with good team support in MSR, then the parcours suits him doing something similar. In the six Italian classics in the last three weeks, Nibali has gone: 2/1/3/5/1/1 -- diamond effort! Gilbert was disappointing, just his age showing up so late in the season, I think. Wellens was good to get into the break, but on the other hand it was impatient riding again to push on so far out from the finish. Not sure about this course with respect to the cars getting stuck in a traffic jam -- RCS are always angling for route changes and the deals they strike with municipalities and sponsors, so I don't expect they'll give up that anytime soon. Certainly this race was a great spectacle and had a great classics feel. Thanks heaps for the threads MC -- enjoy your off-season mate!  Cheers, SP |
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