Stage 21 » Alcalá Alcalá de Henares › Madrid (98.8k)
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Flat and processional sprint stage into Madrid.
Can hardly bring myself to make the thread for this stage. Got home from a 25th wedding anniversary late last night and sat down to watch the drama unfold. Feel totally gutted for Tom Dumoulin. Can't fault him for effort, he obviously gave it everything but the effort of the three weeks without team support just broke him in the end, and it was a tactical masterstoke from Astana sending men up the road. Even taking the financial aspect out of it (although I had an all-green book Dumoulin was my second best result and Aru my worst) there was something deeply unsatisfying about how that panned out yesterday. Dumoulin winning would have been a triumph for the underdog. Giant winning a Grand Tour against the huge resources and strength of Astana would have been a fairytale but sadly it wasn't to be. It's very hard to watch a hero broken.
This should almost certainly end in a bunch sprint. Degenkolb is probably the fastest man still here and Giant have the best train but who knows whether they will be able to refocus for this after coming so close to glory? It may pay to try one of the up-and-coming sprinters. Danny Van Poppel (5/1) took his maiden GT stage win on stage 12 and Kristian Sbaragli (18/1) won Stage 10 into Castellon and you'd imagine those two might be the most popular alternatives to Degenkolb. Jempy Drucker (20/1) has also been pretty consistent. After that Richeze and Van Asbroeck (both 33/1) would be contenders who would be looking to get involved.
Very well said MC, it is important to not overlook the sporting aspects of such outcomes, and TGA beating AST would have been a great outcome in sporting terms. You did well to suspect such a tactical scenario by AST, but that it worked so well also shows how poor TGA were in supporting their GC contender in Dumoulin.
Many thanks for all your hard work in getting all the threads up for the whole Vuelta. It doesn't matter how many races one has seen and how many winners one has landed, there is always something to learn in this sport of ours, and I have certainly learnt lots of things thanks to you sharing your thoughts in such a thoughtful manner.
Okay, bunch sprint, TGA focus is now directed to Degenkolb, who opened as a short-priced favourite but is drifting a little with a few Books. Better on here, which in W/O terms is best advised. I think TGA will want to finish on a positive note and you would expect that from a professional team. No bets at ante-post.
Good luck to all, SP
Very well said MC, it is important to not overlook the sporting aspects of such outcomes, and TGA beating AST would have been a great outcome in sporting terms. You did well to suspect such a tactical scenario by AST, but that it worked so well also