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Stage 18 » Roa › Riaza (204k)
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After the exciting TT yesterday, we have three increasingly lumpy stages for Giant and Dumoulin to control the race and defend their 3 second lead in the red jersey.
This is a long stage today, at 205km, and the tiredness in the peloton will be a big factor. A breakaway has a good chance today looking at the terrain, and that will suit Giant down to the ground as it will mean time bonuses at the intermediate sprint will be taken by the time the peloton get there. So don't expect Giant to chase the morning break too keenly, unless there is a genuine GC threat in there. The start is pretty flat, which means it could be quite some time before we see the breakaway established. Plenty of riders will want to get in it though, because of the chance of success. The initial kms could be very fast. There are 3 categorised climbs today, but the second half of the stage also has several other uncategorised lumps which will make it hard to control. The first two categorised climbs come relatively early and are both Cat 3s. The Alto Santibáñez de Ayllón is 7.8 km at 4 % and the Alto del Campanario is 6.5 km at 3.9 %. The crest the Campanario with still over 100km to go, but the rest of the this stage until the final climb has a saw-toothed profile.
The final climb is the Quesera. This is a Cat 1 climb, although to be honest it is not as hard-looking as several other climbs we have seen in this race, including some uncategorised ones. You have to expect Astana to try and drive a fearsome pace up this climb and for Aru to try an attack near the top, but it is doubtful it will be successful. This climb is just not hard enough to trouble Giant or Dumoulin. The first 2-3km are nothing more than false flat and although the gradient does have a steady 6-7% after that the maximum gradient is 7%. The descent could cause more problems that the climb itself, with some very steep and technical sections before a small upwards ramp and then a slight downhill finish into the town of Riaza. It is not in Dumoulin's interest to see bonus seconds still up for grabs here, especially as Dumoulin is a faster finisher than Aru. In my eyes the break will take this stage, and Aru will try a late but ultimately unsuccessful attack, meaning all will still be up for grabs as we move on to Friday's hillier stage.
If it does come back together for a sprint from the GC boys then Valverde is probably the favourite, especially after his remarkable result in the time trial yesterday, but I think this is an unlikely prospect. I'm sure the breakaway specialists like De Marchi, Hansen, Goncalves and co will try their arm here, and I fancy small each way plays on Gautier, Kiryienka, Durasek and I'd love to see Geraint Thomas crown off a truly superb year with the Grand Tour stage win he deserves.
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After the exciting TT yesterday, we have three increasingly lumpy stages for Giant and Dumoulin to control the race and defend their 3 second lead in the red jersey.
This is a long stage today, at 205km, and the tiredness in the peloton will be a big factor. A breakaway has a good chance today looking at the terrain, and that will suit Giant down to the ground as it will mean time bonuses at the intermediate sprint will be taken by the time the peloton get there. So don't expect Giant to chase the morning break too keenly, unless there is a genuine GC threat in there. The start is pretty flat, which means it could be quite some time before we see the breakaway established. Plenty of riders will want to get in it though, because of the chance of success. The initial kms could be very fast. There are 3 categorised climbs today, but the second half of the stage also has several other uncategorised lumps which will make it hard to control. The first two categorised climbs come relatively early and are both Cat 3s. The Alto Santibáñez de Ayllón is 7.8 km at 4 % and the Alto del Campanario is 6.5 km at 3.9 %. The crest the Campanario with still over 100km to go, but the rest of the this stage until the final climb has a saw-toothed profile.
The final climb is the Quesera. This is a Cat 1 climb, although to be honest it is not as hard-looking as several other climbs we have seen in this race, including some uncategorised ones. You have to expect Astana to try and drive a fearsome pace up this climb and for Aru to try an attack near the top, but it is doubtful it will be successful. This climb is just not hard enough to trouble Giant or Dumoulin. The first 2-3km are nothing more than false flat and although the gradient does have a steady 6-7% after that the maximum gradient is 7%. The descent could cause more problems that the climb itself, with some very steep and technical sections before a small upwards ramp and then a slight downhill finish into the town of Riaza. It is not in Dumoulin's interest to see bonus seconds still up for grabs here, especially as Dumoulin is a faster finisher than Aru. In my eyes the break will take this stage, and Aru will try a late but ultimately unsuccessful attack, meaning all will still be up for grabs as we move on to Friday's hillier stage.
If it does come back together for a sprint from the GC boys then Valverde is probably the favourite, especially after his remarkable result in the time trial yesterday, but I think this is an unlikely prospect. I'm sure the breakaway specialists like De Marchi, Hansen, Goncalves and co will try their arm here, and I fancy small each way plays on Gautier, Kiryienka, Durasek and I'd love to see Geraint Thomas crown off a truly superb year with the Grand Tour stage win he deserves.
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Sounds like Lotto Jumbo might also ride in support of Dumoulin. I think that it will be very difficult for Astana to gain time on either today's stage or Friday, which means this whole Vuelta might come down to a Super Saturday showdown on the stage with 4 x Cat 1s and a downhill finish.
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Agree with MC, looks like a breakaway stage made-to-order, although we have seen stages which we thought were for the breakaway, but which didn't result as such.
TGA will go to the front to set a nice and easy pace for Dumoulin, that much is clear, however AST may elbow them out of the way if the speed is slow and the tempo too easy, by forcing the pace throughout and then ramping it up on the climb. That is their best tactic, to give Dumoulin a really hard ride. If they go hard, then the pace may hurt the breakaway's gap, but I don't believe it will hurt Dumoulin. In addition, the road surface of the descent is a shocker, so we'll see how things play out there, however I would not be surprised to see Dumoulin extend his lead to Aru on the line, possibly with a late opportunistic attack. Difficult to pick a winner, and a collection of big-priced breakaway pirates might be the best way to proceed, but nothing jumps out so will look for IR selections. Good luck to all, SP |
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Break of 25 up the road, Durasek and Gautier in it for me.
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MTN Qhubeka chasing to protect Mentjies
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MTN might not be that happy with LTS involving two riders to work for Bart de Clercq in the breakaway, in order to try and get him into the top-10 on GC. Bart rode very well in Poland earlier in the season, winning the long drag to the finish in Zakopane, and showing his hardman qualities. Finished in 2nd place on GC when many were questioning his claims, albeit for the win. Good descender and has not been far away on the main climbing stages here, so this is obviously a planned move by LTS, and I like his chances.
The gap is moving in the direction of the peloton, however I am subtracting a conservative 10 kms on account of the descent into the finish being in favour of the breakaway riders, and therefore the gap is of a much more favourable distance for the breakaway. Matched at 9/1 as the 6/1 available is on the short side. |
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AST putting the hurt on is not helping the breakaway's chances, and the breakaway are not really combining so we'll see if LTS decide to put Plan B into action.
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Dumoulin leading his teammates!
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Rodriguez goes, brought back quickly. Astana doing the work. Not good news for the breaks this.
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Aru still has 4 team mates and 1 back in the cars
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I see 3 men from Giant near the front so Dumoulin not yet isolated
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I'd piss myself laughing if Astana worked all day, brought back the break, attacked on the climb but couldn't shift Dumoulin and then he took some bonus seconds
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Just added Dumoulin 33/1 can't see the break making this
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Same!
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Aru attacks!
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We are watching the next big GC rider in the peloton...
Aru got down to one teammate, so he attacked, but Dumoulin sat on in total comfort, Ary couldn't shake him as they opened a gap to the GC riders, now he is getting a comfortable ride behind Aru as the selection reforms... |
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Gautier cooked!
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Dumoulin being attacked by Aru once, then twice, and he just sits on comfortably.
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Meanwhile Zubeldia and Roche are clear here -- Zubeldia used to be a crack descender wasn't he?
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Attacking Dumoulin on this gradient is just not going to work -- he has not left Aru's wheel!
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Zubeldia hasn't been able to distance Roche on the descent...
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Great chance for Roche to take a stage here, surely can't get beat by Zubeldia
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Gone with Zubeldia, only because of the 3/1 value.
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Well done Roche
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Picked the wrong Sky men. Gautier and Durasek made the break but no joy. Super ride from Roche, attacked on the climb, bridged over to Gautier and then maintained the gap on the descent.
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Roche came through again when he shouldn't have since it was well inside the Flemme Rouge, and you could tell Zubeldia was licking his lips after he surprisingly got the sit, but just didn't have the legs of old to push past Roche, who just ramped up the speed and had enough to win.
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Roche was equal favourite of three, thanks to our lazy cycling market compiler, at 6.8, but still had to do all that work you've described MC and gets some good ratings, no doubt.
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