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Stage 14 » Vitoria › Alto Campoo. Fuente del Chivo (215k)
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Stage 11 was an epic amount of climbing but if anything it might have proved that too much of a good thing does not a Kirby-led televisual spectacular make. The staggering amount of climbing in front of them might have dampened the attacking enthusiasm of some. The next few days, starting with today, might be more likely to lead to spectacular scenes. This 215km stage doesn't look too daunting at first glance, the first half is flat, then a Class 3 and a descent but then the last 70km see two very hard climbs and anyone who isn't in form today will see their chances out the window.
they start today in Vitoria-Gasteiz, the capital of the semi-autonomous Basque Country in the North of the Spain that forms a geographical trapezium with Bilbao, Pamlona and San Sebastien making up the other three corners. They head primarily West to start with. This part of the world is hilly and green, and even though the initial uncategorised climbs are small in comparison with what's to come they should enable an early break to establish itself quickly. The most part of the first 100km or so is relatively flat though. They cross from Euskadi into Castilla y León before the first climb of the day, the Puerto Estacas Trueba which they crest after 118km. This is 11km @ 2.9%. Following this there is a long, long descent of about 30km, at first technical but that gets easier and easier, that takes the riders down out of the hills to the West, before a change of direction at Entrabasmestras, where they turn left, head South and the road heads back upwards.
The Cat 1 Puerto del Escudo is a nasty piece of work and will cause severe damage. This is 11.4% with an average gradient of 6.4%. That's not too bad right? This is one climb that shows that average gradients can be very deceptive. Here though the first 4km are at 3% or less. Then there are roughly 2km at 6%. Then things get tough. The next 4km rarely drop below 10% and have maximum gradients of 15%. For the last 1500m it drops down to 7% but this is a fearsome climb and will massively reduce the peloton. There's very little descent to enjoy following this climb, just a short drop before a plateau that stretches for 30km round the Embalse del Ebro and past Fonitre, which is the source of the Ebro. The Ebro is the second longest and also the second biggest river in the whole of the Iberian peninsular, and runs all the way to Southern Catalonia, where the mouth is found between Tortosa and Amposta where it discharges into the Med. After passing the resevoir, they hit the sprint finish and then the final climb.
the summit finish at Fuento del Chivo is a Cat 1 and at 18km it is a long climb but the maximum gradient is 9% and the maximum is 5.5%. This doesn't sound too hard, but the previous Cat 1 will have reduced the numbers in the bunch and in a day with almost 3500m of vertical gain, and this far into a 3 week tour it is not inconceivable that this final climb will see some gaps, especially as the steepest ramps come as we hit the flamme rouge. In reality though it would have to be a very bad day at the office for anyone to gain more than 20-30 seconds here. It won't decide the Vuelta, but this could be a softening up blow for what is to come over the next two days...
Map
Profile
Stage 11 was an epic amount of climbing but if anything it might have proved that too much of a good thing does not a Kirby-led televisual spectacular make. The staggering amount of climbing in front of them might have dampened the attacking enthusiasm of some. The next few days, starting with today, might be more likely to lead to spectacular scenes. This 215km stage doesn't look too daunting at first glance, the first half is flat, then a Class 3 and a descent but then the last 70km see two very hard climbs and anyone who isn't in form today will see their chances out the window.
they start today in Vitoria-Gasteiz, the capital of the semi-autonomous Basque Country in the North of the Spain that forms a geographical trapezium with Bilbao, Pamlona and San Sebastien making up the other three corners. They head primarily West to start with. This part of the world is hilly and green, and even though the initial uncategorised climbs are small in comparison with what's to come they should enable an early break to establish itself quickly. The most part of the first 100km or so is relatively flat though. They cross from Euskadi into Castilla y León before the first climb of the day, the Puerto Estacas Trueba which they crest after 118km. This is 11km @ 2.9%. Following this there is a long, long descent of about 30km, at first technical but that gets easier and easier, that takes the riders down out of the hills to the West, before a change of direction at Entrabasmestras, where they turn left, head South and the road heads back upwards.
The Cat 1 Puerto del Escudo is a nasty piece of work and will cause severe damage. This is 11.4% with an average gradient of 6.4%. That's not too bad right? This is one climb that shows that average gradients can be very deceptive. Here though the first 4km are at 3% or less. Then there are roughly 2km at 6%. Then things get tough. The next 4km rarely drop below 10% and have maximum gradients of 15%. For the last 1500m it drops down to 7% but this is a fearsome climb and will massively reduce the peloton. There's very little descent to enjoy following this climb, just a short drop before a plateau that stretches for 30km round the Embalse del Ebro and past Fonitre, which is the source of the Ebro. The Ebro is the second longest and also the second biggest river in the whole of the Iberian peninsular, and runs all the way to Southern Catalonia, where the mouth is found between Tortosa and Amposta where it discharges into the Med. After passing the resevoir, they hit the sprint finish and then the final climb.
the summit finish at Fuento del Chivo is a Cat 1 and at 18km it is a long climb but the maximum gradient is 9% and the maximum is 5.5%. This doesn't sound too hard, but the previous Cat 1 will have reduced the numbers in the bunch and in a day with almost 3500m of vertical gain, and this far into a 3 week tour it is not inconceivable that this final climb will see some gaps, especially as the steepest ramps come as we hit the flamme rouge. In reality though it would have to be a very bad day at the office for anyone to gain more than 20-30 seconds here. It won't decide the Vuelta, but this could be a softening up blow for what is to come over the next two days...
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This should be another great stage to watch and another unpredictable one to call, which has been the best thing about this whole tour the unpredictability of it!
The way I think it should pan out looking at the profile, is that Astana/ katusha should really pile on the pace on the first cat 1 climb and try to put Dumoulin in trouble there. The Escudo as MC says looks a brute of a climb and if they really attack it there I think Dumoulin and most others will struggle. The unusual thing is that there is no real descent after the summit of Escudo so it will be really hard for anyone to get back on before the final climb, the road between the 2 climbs is flat at best, lumpy in places. Then on the final climb Campoo they will be able to put real time in to anyone they have dropped. Looks like the books have it about right Aru fav and Purito 2nd fav clear in the betting but neither offers any great value for betting purposes here, and so i'm looking for riders that maybe able to live with them if they really attack both climbs. The two I think offer the value are QUINTANA 20/1/ ew and NIEVE 40/1 ew, both are obviously real strong climbers more than capable with sticking with anybody on these climbs. The big question mark with Quintana is his form but surely he is going to have a strong day sooner or later? and 20/1 is a big price for undoubtedly the best climber around at the minute. Gl all. |
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Have also added small bet on ATAPUMA at 80/1 a very strong climber but who gets let down by his descending as shown on stage 11! So if he can get away on the Escudo he should have a much better chance here with no real descent to follow to catch him out!
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Aru is a legitimate favourite based on what we've seen so far in this tour. However, I think this stage looks like time gaps will be minimal because even though the final climb is long it is fairly steady. The maximum gradient is a bit of 9% near the top. Also the 30km of flat before the climb might mean Katusha and Astana don't try and attack Dumoulin on the Escudo as they'll know there is enough time for dropped riders to get back on anyway. Aru is short enough as there are several scenarios where he could not win. It's conceivable that Aru and Rodriguez watch each other and let someone like Pozzovivo slip away and I thought about giving him another chance or possibly Moreno who looks in fantastic form to me. But I see this as another chance for the break but a winner today will have to be an excellent climber too. In the end I've rolled the dice on Kadri, Coppel, De Gendt & Coppel at big prices.
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Sky will surely try and get a couple of men in the morning break again, so couldn't put anyone of backing Kiriyenka, Roche or Henao but I'm going to add G as well.
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Thomas 80/1
De Gendt 200/1 Amador 200/1 (250/1 in places) Coppel 250/1 Kadri 400/1 |
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I think AST have to ride strongly. If they just ride tempo and let the breakaway gap get unmanageable, then Dumoulin has an easy ride and is less likely to fade on the final climb. By setting a strong tempo they keep the gap manageable and thus give the eventual select peloton an honest ride up the final climb, making attacks on Aru less problematic, which in-turn opens the stage for Aru as he looks to launch an attack of his own to extend his GC lead, even though he doesn't need to attack but ride defensively.
*** Fabio Aru Has been the only rider to have given himself the biggest of tests and then passed that test with distinction on stage 11. Looks to be open to improvement and is relishing the task before him. Has the benefit of a strong team and continues to appear fresh. Opened at 3/1 and is shortening right across the boards, going as low as 2.62 with Padds. Command respect. Worthy of very close consideration. Good luck to all, SP |
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De Gendt abandons
Sanchez abandons |
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Break has 8'30 with 53km to go. Could be touch and go whether this gets brought back. I think it probably will, especially if we see crosswinds on the plateau before the final climb. Was hoping for a 7-10 man break here.
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Well there goes that theory -- AST have let the breakaway go and it is very much at an unmanageable gap now. It looks like a Sunday club ride in the peloton.
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Add to the fact that it is the longest stage of the race, and I am going to oppose you MC and say it is going with the breakaway thus far.
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Yep, ready to call this now, the breakaway have got it! De Marchi of 2014 is the boss in this company, but Cherel is no mug on the climbs and he may be feeling it. Quintero is a few classes down, JJ Rojas is looking heavy, and Puccio is inconsistent and needs it easier.
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I'd have no problems backing Cherel here as he looks suited, but the thing with De Marchi, at least the De Marchi of 2014, is that he can take a lot of hits and keep getting up. He just won't go away, and there are no riders of really top class to make something stick, unless that rider is on good sensations.
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Looks like De Marchi is patiently waiting for this 2.5% section approaching to drop the hammer and fly away, but that brings JJ Rojas into a bit, if he can answer.
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JJ had his chance to counter De Marchi, but De Marchi is playing games, and I think he has more in reserve.
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Cherel is advantaged as it becomes steeper.
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De Marchi from Puccio. FOG. Quintana from Purito and Aru. Then Dumoulin. FOG. Lots and lots of bloody FOG.
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Fancied the breakaway to make it today, but didn't have any of them 5. Good ride by Dumoulin again, restricting loss to 19 seconds v Aru. Think Aru needs another 2 mins + tomorrow and Monday and showed some signs of tiredness himself. Good ride by Quintana and Rodriguez, both looked far better today. The plot thickens...
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Wow -- nervous ride from Aru -- if he keeps this inexperience up than he might just put himself into some difficulty.
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