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Stage 12 » Escaldes-Engordany › Lleida (173k)
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A rest for the GC guys today on this fairly flat stage, but with a lack of topline sprinters in the race, and everyone tired from yesterday, the breakaway is surely in with a real chance. They start today in Andorra. Many riders will be pretty keen to see the back of it, and they won't have to wait long. The first section is downhill but they hit the slopes of the first (and only categorised) climb after 36km. The Coll de Bóixols is a Cat 2 climb but it is fairly steady and is 16km long with an average gradient of 5%. This early climb will ensure that if they early break will get established here if it hasnt already been. After 55km of this 173km they start downhill as the race heads South through the Western part of Catalonia. There are a couple of uncategorised lumps with about 60km to go, but in reality, only a lack of urgency in the peloton can stop this ending in a bunch sprint.
The finish city of Llieda is one of the oldest towns in Spain, capital of the eponymous province and has the third oldest university in Spain. The run in to Llieda is really straightforward. There are no real turns in the finale, heading almost directly South West all the way to the line, and there is a remarkable absence of roundabouts with just one at roughly 2km. Most of the run in is completely flat or even slightly downhill, but the final 500km have a gradient of 3-4%.
Normally you would say a stage with a profile like this would absolutely 100% be a sprint stage and looking at the sprinters Degenkolb would be all-but nailed on, despite his defeat on Stage 10. However, after an extraordinarily difficult stage on Tuesday, and Giant's attention possibly being taken by Dumoulin's GC challenge, it is worth asking who will chase the breakaway. Giant probably will, they showed on Stage 10 that they were still ready to race for Stage wins despite Dumoulin's proximity to the top of the GC classifications. One difference now is that the giants of Froome and Quintana have been seen off so now Dumoulin has a very realistic chance of at least a Grand Tour podium, if not a Grand Tour win. MTN Qhubeka will be keen to get Sbaragli into a position where he could win another stage but their chance - and all the other teams with half an eye on the sprint - will be to make Giant do all the work and burn their resources. Their best chance of beating Degenkolb and Giant is to get a man in the break and make Giant chase all day. If plenty of teams get a man in the break it has a great chance of winning, but if not then Degenkolb really should win this sprint, and the slight ramps at the end help him as well.
I will put my neck on the block and say that the chase won't be strong enough or organised enough and the break will win this.
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A rest for the GC guys today on this fairly flat stage, but with a lack of topline sprinters in the race, and everyone tired from yesterday, the breakaway is surely in with a real chance. They start today in Andorra. Many riders will be pretty keen to see the back of it, and they won't have to wait long. The first section is downhill but they hit the slopes of the first (and only categorised) climb after 36km. The Coll de Bóixols is a Cat 2 climb but it is fairly steady and is 16km long with an average gradient of 5%. This early climb will ensure that if they early break will get established here if it hasnt already been. After 55km of this 173km they start downhill as the race heads South through the Western part of Catalonia. There are a couple of uncategorised lumps with about 60km to go, but in reality, only a lack of urgency in the peloton can stop this ending in a bunch sprint.
The finish city of Llieda is one of the oldest towns in Spain, capital of the eponymous province and has the third oldest university in Spain. The run in to Llieda is really straightforward. There are no real turns in the finale, heading almost directly South West all the way to the line, and there is a remarkable absence of roundabouts with just one at roughly 2km. Most of the run in is completely flat or even slightly downhill, but the final 500km have a gradient of 3-4%.
Normally you would say a stage with a profile like this would absolutely 100% be a sprint stage and looking at the sprinters Degenkolb would be all-but nailed on, despite his defeat on Stage 10. However, after an extraordinarily difficult stage on Tuesday, and Giant's attention possibly being taken by Dumoulin's GC challenge, it is worth asking who will chase the breakaway. Giant probably will, they showed on Stage 10 that they were still ready to race for Stage wins despite Dumoulin's proximity to the top of the GC classifications. One difference now is that the giants of Froome and Quintana have been seen off so now Dumoulin has a very realistic chance of at least a Grand Tour podium, if not a Grand Tour win. MTN Qhubeka will be keen to get Sbaragli into a position where he could win another stage but their chance - and all the other teams with half an eye on the sprint - will be to make Giant do all the work and burn their resources. Their best chance of beating Degenkolb and Giant is to get a man in the break and make Giant chase all day. If plenty of teams get a man in the break it has a great chance of winning, but if not then Degenkolb really should win this sprint, and the slight ramps at the end help him as well.
I will put my neck on the block and say that the chase won't be strong enough or organised enough and the break will win this.
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Replies: 29
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Was thinking along the same lines MC, that a breakaway looks most likely, so was surprised to see Degenkolb at odds-on as the break established a gap of 5.30 mins. Can TGA have the strength for both Degenkolb stage win attempts and Dumoulin going into the third week? Even if TFR provide assistance as they are now doing, I don't think it's sensible and would expect the chase to stall. Just waiting on pictures to confirm the impetus of the peloton, however the break has lost 30 secs on the descent. The uncategorised climbs will reveal more, but have laid Degenkolb cheaply to start.
Breakaway: Maxime Bouet (EQS), Miguel Ángel Rubiano (COL), Jaco Venter (MTN), Bert Jan Lindeman (TLJ), Alexis Gougeard (ALM). Good luck to all, SP |
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Gap smashed by TFR and TGA -- 3 mins now.
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not too much going on with this stage. i think the breakaway will get caught. Degenkolb abit low for me so have put a few coins on JP Drucker for some interest
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The breakaway rallied there on the start of the uncat. climb, keeping it at 3 mins, however the impetus in the peloton is strong and it looks like TGA want this for Degenkolb. Sbaragli's win on stage 10 was a little lucky and if you watch Degenkolb storm home he looked very powerful, so if he gets his own way than I don't see anyone beating him. Made a mistake here to not get pics first I think, so as MC says this only doesn't end in a bunch sprint if the peloton lacks urgency and everything so far suggests they have plenty of urgency. Getting out of Degenkolb lay.
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Yep, wish I hadn't bothered here, but one thing is likely is that Degenkolb will trade lower once this comes back together and the peloton are approaching the finale.
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Of course this has to become more complex...
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How is the breakaway staying away here? The peloton are hammering this full power!
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About bloody time MTN suggest they will provide some assistance -- come to the front! Now!!
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Nope -- MTN going to use their Venter excuse today -- LAM there but not offering much!
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As I thought - MTN knew that getting a man in the break would mean Giant have to do the work.
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Laid Degenkolb at 5/4 and 3/4 on basis that chase would not be able to get organised and break would win. Panning out ok here.
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Alpecin did alot of work yesterday and i beleive Dekenkolb was the last man with Dumoulin so will be interesting to know how hes feeling. Would in no way be inclined to have a bet on him at such a low price
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Going to be touch and go this
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Covered Lindeman at 20 -- want a strong attack!
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Chase is finally getting organised - how much have Giant got left?
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YGA will have nothing left but that won't necessarily affect Degenkolb -- he's had it easy!
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Could've been worse...
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Wow, feel for the break there.
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Finally Trek's "never join in the chase" policy pays off
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DVP peaked at 30 when he suffered that wheel change.
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All the other sprint teams did the right thing there by making Giant do the work. Love those games of brinksmanship but it always seems to go the wrong way. If I'm on the break the chase wins and if I'm on the sprinters they towel it and the break stays out. At least by laying the favourite for the sprint you have two ways to win - either the break stays out or the
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All the other sprint teams did the right thing there by making Giant do the work. Love those games of brinksmanship but it always seems to go the wrong way. If I'm on the break the chase wins and if I'm on the sprinters they towel it and the break stays out. At least by laying the favourite for the sprint you have two ways to win - either the break stays out or the
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Well done MC -- I might have kept the faith with you had I known you were in the same boat, earlier.
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FFS - or the big favourite, who's team have done all the chasing, gets stuffed in the sprint.
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Sorry mate, only just got back from work with 12km to go.
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No worries at all MC, very happy to hear you winning.
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Degenkolb looked flat in the finale, tbh. With his train non-existent after hurting themselves in failing to bring the break back, and looking for wheels to follow in that flat condition he was much further back than the impression he gave on stage 10.
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JD Seemed to get a bit boxed in as well but certainly didn't look like he had the power to get in a position to win without the full leadout. If I was Giant's Directeur Sportif there (maybe one day) I'd have told the team to do no work and ride for Dumoulin, let the other teams worry about the sprint and then if it happens chuck the whole team on the front with 2km to go.
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Just doing 13 now
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