Cycling
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Stage 10 » Valencia › Castellón (146.6k)
Map
Profile
A shortish stage that looks like it will provide some respite for the GC riders and could be ideal for the break to make it all the way. This stage has two categorised climbs but the run-in is flat. We have had some hard days of racing and it has been very hot as we have crossed Andalusia and Southern Spain in the first 9 days of this Vuelta. We have a lot of tired riders. This stage is immediately before the rest day, and then we have a horrendous day of Pyrenean climbing on Wednesday. It is very difficult to imagine who would be interested in using lots of energy controlling the stage today if a strong break gets away and I think that is the most likely outcome here, unless Giant are determined to bring it back for Degenkolb, but I think that is even more unlikely with Dumoulin in red.
They start in Valencia, the third largest city in Spain, on the East Coast facing the Med. They head North West out of Valencia towards the mountains in the province of Alicante. There is likely to be a massive scrap to get into the break today as everyone knows it has a fair chance of success. When they get to the town of Bétera the road starts heading upwards and not long after they start on the slopes Cat 3 Puerto del Oronet climb which should see the break established as it has some steep slopes towards the top, with the last 300m or so at nearly 8%. After 60km they drop out of the mountains they head back towards the coast and the next 60km or so are very flat. At 120km they hit the intermediate sprint and almost immediately after they turn away from the coast into a natural park and hit the second and final categorised climb, the Cat 2 Alto de Desierto de las Palmas. This climb has 400m of vertical gain, and is 7.4km at 5.5%. The worst gradients are in the first half, and the climb gets easier nearer the top. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to create gaps for the GC riders.
There are 17km to go from the summit of the final climb, so in theory there is enough time to catch a breakaway but in reality there is every chance that bird will have long flown the nest. They descend from the climb and then there is about 8km of flat on the run in to Castellon. The last kms are fairly tricky. There are several pinch points and turns. There is a 270degree left hand turn at a roundabout at 4km, and then two more roundabouts they go straight over soon after. There are two further roundabouts at 2km and at the flamme rouge before two consecutive 90degree right hand turns that will make positioning crucial if a large group does get to the end. The home straight is 300m long on c/ Columbretes.
An astonishingly difficult stage to predict. This could be won by a late attack on the way into Castellon, or from a reduced peloton. I think the most likely outcome is that the morning breakaway takes it, so if you're betting then roll the dice. For me a very small each way play on Tjallingi 200/1, De Gendt 33/1, Soupe 150/1 and Nelson Oliveria 150/1.
Map
Profile
A shortish stage that looks like it will provide some respite for the GC riders and could be ideal for the break to make it all the way. This stage has two categorised climbs but the run-in is flat. We have had some hard days of racing and it has been very hot as we have crossed Andalusia and Southern Spain in the first 9 days of this Vuelta. We have a lot of tired riders. This stage is immediately before the rest day, and then we have a horrendous day of Pyrenean climbing on Wednesday. It is very difficult to imagine who would be interested in using lots of energy controlling the stage today if a strong break gets away and I think that is the most likely outcome here, unless Giant are determined to bring it back for Degenkolb, but I think that is even more unlikely with Dumoulin in red.
They start in Valencia, the third largest city in Spain, on the East Coast facing the Med. They head North West out of Valencia towards the mountains in the province of Alicante. There is likely to be a massive scrap to get into the break today as everyone knows it has a fair chance of success. When they get to the town of Bétera the road starts heading upwards and not long after they start on the slopes Cat 3 Puerto del Oronet climb which should see the break established as it has some steep slopes towards the top, with the last 300m or so at nearly 8%. After 60km they drop out of the mountains they head back towards the coast and the next 60km or so are very flat. At 120km they hit the intermediate sprint and almost immediately after they turn away from the coast into a natural park and hit the second and final categorised climb, the Cat 2 Alto de Desierto de las Palmas. This climb has 400m of vertical gain, and is 7.4km at 5.5%. The worst gradients are in the first half, and the climb gets easier nearer the top. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to create gaps for the GC riders.
There are 17km to go from the summit of the final climb, so in theory there is enough time to catch a breakaway but in reality there is every chance that bird will have long flown the nest. They descend from the climb and then there is about 8km of flat on the run in to Castellon. The last kms are fairly tricky. There are several pinch points and turns. There is a 270degree left hand turn at a roundabout at 4km, and then two more roundabouts they go straight over soon after. There are two further roundabouts at 2km and at the flamme rouge before two consecutive 90degree right hand turns that will make positioning crucial if a large group does get to the end. The home straight is 300m long on c/ Columbretes.
An astonishingly difficult stage to predict. This could be won by a late attack on the way into Castellon, or from a reduced peloton. I think the most likely outcome is that the morning breakaway takes it, so if you're betting then roll the dice. For me a very small each way play on Tjallingi 200/1, De Gendt 33/1, Soupe 150/1 and Nelson Oliveria 150/1.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 31
|
By:
Yes, a breakaway looks the most likely scenario, for all those reasons MC. Really tough to call, though. Was considering Stephen Cummings 50/1 and Niki Terpstra 33/1 -- however most of those riders are about that price on here and improving, so have started with a lay of Degenkolb, at least for a trade at ante-post and will look for IR selections. The market is just not very competitive and I'm not confident of a good move should one or more of those two find themselves in the either the long-range breakaway or go on the attack approaching the top of the cat.2.
Good luck to all, SP |
|
By:
38 man break
|
|
By:
40.
 Cummings there, but price now gone.  At least the Degenkolb lay provides a nice green screen to work from.  |
|
By:
Long-range break dead!
|
|
By:
Wasn't expecting Giant to do that. Be interesting to see what happens on this climb now. Fireworks on the climb? It isn't that hard for a Cat 2.
|
|
By:
Do we think the Tour of Britain is worth a thread a day or just one thread?
|
|
By:
Agree Henao was the concern and therefore why TGA were riding to protect Dumoulin in red, and now the late attack is more likely since I don't see them doing work for two, in essentially setting it up for Dumoulin. It's certainly no rest day in advance of tomorrow, but again that comes back to Henao.
Seeing as it's your national tour it's your decision MC, but I would think just the one thread, only because the markets are going to be quite poor I would think. |
|
By:
Terpstra on the attack now, again the value gone with him.
|
|
By:
He'll make a good go of this, but has gone too early, I believe.
|
|
By:
Actually, no he won't, looks to be sitting up, realizing it's too early.
|
|
By:
Okay, so that leaves us with the cat.2 for some fireworks, definitely. Probably was always the more likely scenario, although without Henao in the long-range break the peloton might have switched off, completely. With MOV and the GC teams on or near the front as well, it looks like there are some concerns over a GC contender attempting to pilfer a gap. Might be some GC fisticuffs? And if that is the case, then they eventually call a truce on the descent or flat, and a strong puncheur or second-string climber attacks for a gap and stage honours. Going against a bunch sprint, but if there's a selection than a splintering hardman classics-type sprint, like when Stuyven won on stage 8.
|
|
By:
Is this the same De Marchi of last year in this race?
|
|
By:
Good this from Giant, Dumoulin was always going to be safe but should set up Degenkolb for the sprint as well
|
|
By:
He looks with good sensations, but not much of a gap.
|
|
By:
Be interesting to see if a deent TTer can get a gap on the descent
|
|
By:
De Marchi, I mean.
|
|
By:
Power descent, mostly.
|
|
By:
TGA will get hit with attacks, multiple ones, I believe.
|
|
By:
Did you get out of that Degenkolb lay mate?
|
|
By:
Yes, but have laid him at odds-on, way too short and there will be late attacks.
|
|
By:
Plus only one TGA rider remaining...
|
|
By:
Degenkolb didn't get there I don't think
|
|
By:
Get. In.
|
|
By:
No MC, he didn't.
|
|
By:
Sbaragli-Degenkolb-Rojas?
|
|
By:
Closer than I would've liked. It wasn't splintering arrowhead, it was just this long and extended bunch sprint. Not sure about third.
|
|
By:
Great result for MTN Qhubeka. Strange that they are withdrawing their sponsorship. The team have certainly done their bit this year.
|
|
By:
Man in the break, then a stage win, great stuff from them, but I believe that decision was made even after Cummings win at the Tour.
|
|
By:
Did Kirby call Rojas?
|
|
By:
Sbaragli got lucky there a little tbh, didn't extend for the line and the experienced Degenkolb did, but just short.
|
|
By:
|