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Stage 7 » Jódar › La Alpujarra (191.1k)
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A long and probably hot stage through Southern Spain, heading South towards the Sea, notable for two categorised climbs including a Cat 1 summit finish that will see a shake up in the GC. They start in Jodar, in the province of Jaen and head immediately South. Although the stage is fairly lumpy overall, the first 70km or so are relatively flat. It is at 70km where they hit the first climb, the Cat 3 Puerto de los Blancares. The next 90km or so head slightly downhill, although there are so short but very steep ramps. The riders will be thinking about the final climb.
The Alto de Capileira is a hard climb, as it is 18km from top to bottom and has ramps of up to 14%. However, there is a large plateau of almost 4km where the gradient flattens right out. Most of the last 7-8km are at around 7-8%, but there is a very steep ramp that averages 11% about 1.5km from the top that lasts for nearly 1000m then the last km is at about 6%. This climb is steep and hard enough that the best climbers should come to the fore. It should be hard enough for riders like Froome and Quintana to show their climbing prowess, although maybe the trend of riders that did not ride the Tour having success can continue and someone like Aru or Landa could triumph on these slopes.
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A long and probably hot stage through Southern Spain, heading South towards the Sea, notable for two categorised climbs including a Cat 1 summit finish that will see a shake up in the GC. They start in Jodar, in the province of Jaen and head immediately South. Although the stage is fairly lumpy overall, the first 70km or so are relatively flat. It is at 70km where they hit the first climb, the Cat 3 Puerto de los Blancares. The next 90km or so head slightly downhill, although there are so short but very steep ramps. The riders will be thinking about the final climb.
The Alto de Capileira is a hard climb, as it is 18km from top to bottom and has ramps of up to 14%. However, there is a large plateau of almost 4km where the gradient flattens right out. Most of the last 7-8km are at around 7-8%, but there is a very steep ramp that averages 11% about 1.5km from the top that lasts for nearly 1000m then the last km is at about 6%. This climb is steep and hard enough that the best climbers should come to the fore. It should be hard enough for riders like Froome and Quintana to show their climbing prowess, although maybe the trend of riders that did not ride the Tour having success can continue and someone like Aru or Landa could triumph on these slopes.
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I'm not sure we can commit to the idea of a trend being established for non-Tour-riders having success as MC advances. Both Valverde and Sagan rode the Tour and they have both won, which really only leaves the three wins for OGE with Ewan, and primarily the two wins for Chaves whom wasn't at the Tour, but who has been suited by these punchy climbs and hasn't been treated seriously by the peloton. I think even though he is riding with confidence and taking all before him, he won't have the same freedom from the peloton on this stage, and is likely to be found out by the experience and strength of the Principals. Certainly, this stage will suggest whether such a trend is likely, but I think we are not there yet.
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This climb should really suit Froome. Be interesting to see if he goes for it today. Thrown a few quid in him
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If we see the sky train and Froome launches an attack I think Quintana will be the only one who can stay close to him. Otherwise we could see Valverde winning a sprint from a group of 5-10 riders. We could also see a rider who is perceived as less of a threat get 20-30 sec lead and hold onto the stage win, someone like Tejay, Majka, Landa or Aru.
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It looks like Sky are really strong at the moment, I don't think they should waste this opportunity for Froome to gain time.
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yeah they look strong but ya wonder will they see it out after a tough TdeF,history is against TdeF and Veulta winners in same year,Froome might want to save himself although the time trial later on will be in his favour,Aru and Landa ought to be fresh after the Giro...
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It looked like Quintana was only just getting warm in the last 2 mountain stages at the tour.
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I cant see Landa being at the same level as he was in the giro. Aru didn't have the ideal preparation for the giro, I would expect him to be better here if he is a true gt contender.
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I didn't want to pollute my stage suggestions with my outright winner picks, so have decided to not put anything up, however I agree with Clay, (always good to hear your opinions, pity it's only occasionally, but I understand it can be a commitment) Froome looks suited by the climb, plus I would add he doesn't really need to do much except stay with the Principals, and when he does that he usually kicks away in the finale or nearing it. I'm hoping he rides smart and doesn't lose any time to his rivals, certainly his smart riding the other day on effectively a sprint stage to gain some time back on a couple of riders shows his excellent focus -- we'll see if he has the legs today. Purito looks to have been going really well on the punchy stages -- promising like, and whilst today is a big test for him, I hope he can stay with the Principals, also. If Quintana were to lose some time I wouldn't complain as I have him improving as the race goes on, and he might not be hitting his form yet, although if he does than look out! Basically, sticking with my outright analysis/suggestions as some evidence will reflect the long-term outlook by the results of today's stage.
In conclusion; Froome for a shortening trade, Valverde for the stage win, Purito for a strong ride. Good luck to all, SP |
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market has the break to win. seems likely but maybe not as likely as the odds suggest. think they need 4-5 minutes going to the last climb
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Break have this 40kms out, I think.
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Not much urgency in the peloton, but you still want a rider who can go bury-mode.
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could still be an interesting finish amoungst the GC even if its not for the stage win
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I mean, just because the stage win might off the table because the principals don't care about it on such a hot day, doesn't mean they won't look at each other for some signs -- someone is always feeling good!
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^mins with 20kms to go and the breakaway are on the climb -- looks doable!
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6 mins...
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Just want some conformation that Txurruka can still do bury-mode in between his low strike-rate.
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it could be close at the end but really still dont know. i had couple quid on Pozzovivo pre stage and a few on Froome at 20s when the break had the big lead. Not holding out tonnes of hope but you never know
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90 secs in less than 4 kms -- unless Txurukka attacks these guys and goes bury-mode in the next few kms -- it's going against the strongest breakaway rider.
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Time to pick up some GC value...
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2mins lost in 6kms, thereabouts. On that score the breakaway lose, but again, the critical bury-mode factor.
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20kms at 6mins.
Now, 10kms at 3.25. |
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going to be close
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Going against the break now though -- unless someone jumps out and buries himself.
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AST now took over from MOV is a plus for the peloton.
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Break not helping themselves keeping this together, either.
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20kms at 6mins.
10kms at 3.25. 5kms at 2? |
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5mins at 2.29.
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5kms at 2.29.
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Koshevoy goes but can he bury-mode??
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2.5kms at 2.05mins.
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Froooomes gone!
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Aru with a huge attack! Awesome
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Froome...
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he is human after all!
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Lindemann gubbed @ 1000
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Some massive bets landed on Lindemann.
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Cousin crashed with the motobike ruining the momentum
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Looks like whatever Froome was on during the tour has worn off now
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