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Stage 4 » Estepona › Vejer de la Frontera (209.6k)
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A largely flat stage with no categorised climbs but with a very interesting finish that should offer something for the powerful punchers. They roll out from Estepona, just down the coast from Marbella on the Southern coast of Spain and roll towards Gibraltar before cutting inland and through the beautiful Alcornocales natural park. This park covers 650 square miles between the provinces of Malaga and Cadiz and is covered by Mediterranean Natural Forest which is mainly made up of Cork Oak trees. These trees are harvested for commercial cork, which is used for wine-bottle stoppers, bulletin boards, coasters, insulation, sealing material for jar lids, flooring, gaskets for engines, fishing bobbers and handles for things like fishing rods and tennis rackets. At roughly 75-80km the peloton will pass the Barbate Resevoir, a beautiful lake known to conservationists because it is the site where the Osprey was recently successfully re-introduced to the Iberian peninsular.
Last kms
When they come out of the park, they head to Cadiz, close to the start location of last year's Stage 3 of the Vuelta then head South down the coast towards the finish at Vejer de la Frontera. VDLF is a small, beautiful hilltop town where one has views over the Straights of Gibraltar. This should provide an exciting finish for the day. With 4km to go they hit the a big ramp of almost 12% which lasts for almost 1km. There is then a flat section for about 600m before another smaller ramp which is about 350m at 8%. They crest this with 2km to go, and it then flattens out and there is even a short, fast descent just after the flamme rouge. The road ramps up again at about 450 to go, and the final section is at about 9%. This finish ensures that none of the sprinters will be at the finish and we will instead have to look at the punchers who can deal with the sort of ramps we see here. Peter Sagan would be a real danger on this sort of finish, as would Simon Gerrans if he was at 100%. It may also suit climbers with a fast finish like Alejandro Valverde and Dani Moreno
Map
Profile
A largely flat stage with no categorised climbs but with a very interesting finish that should offer something for the powerful punchers. They roll out from Estepona, just down the coast from Marbella on the Southern coast of Spain and roll towards Gibraltar before cutting inland and through the beautiful Alcornocales natural park. This park covers 650 square miles between the provinces of Malaga and Cadiz and is covered by Mediterranean Natural Forest which is mainly made up of Cork Oak trees. These trees are harvested for commercial cork, which is used for wine-bottle stoppers, bulletin boards, coasters, insulation, sealing material for jar lids, flooring, gaskets for engines, fishing bobbers and handles for things like fishing rods and tennis rackets. At roughly 75-80km the peloton will pass the Barbate Resevoir, a beautiful lake known to conservationists because it is the site where the Osprey was recently successfully re-introduced to the Iberian peninsular.
Last kms
When they come out of the park, they head to Cadiz, close to the start location of last year's Stage 3 of the Vuelta then head South down the coast towards the finish at Vejer de la Frontera. VDLF is a small, beautiful hilltop town where one has views over the Straights of Gibraltar. This should provide an exciting finish for the day. With 4km to go they hit the a big ramp of almost 12% which lasts for almost 1km. There is then a flat section for about 600m before another smaller ramp which is about 350m at 8%. They crest this with 2km to go, and it then flattens out and there is even a short, fast descent just after the flamme rouge. The road ramps up again at about 450 to go, and the final section is at about 9%. This finish ensures that none of the sprinters will be at the finish and we will instead have to look at the punchers who can deal with the sort of ramps we see here. Peter Sagan would be a real danger on this sort of finish, as would Simon Gerrans if he was at 100%. It may also suit climbers with a fast finish like Alejandro Valverde and Dani Moreno
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Replies: 23
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Think we'll see Orica, Movistar and Katusha battling at the front again in the last few kms. Sagan got a lot of support from Tinkoff on Stage 3 and I think they'll repeat the trick. With those 4 teams forcing the pace the sharp slopes towards the end of this stage mean the finish is too much for Degenkolb, Bouhanni and co.
No way should Degenkolb be 7/2 like Padds have opened here. |
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I've taken 150/1 Mezgec and 20/1 Moreno
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Fair play to Padds for being first up with their Book but they should start to look at a better analyst -- there is no way you can have Degenkolb as an 11/2 second favourite for this stage.
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He was 7/2 when they opened up, with Bouhanni at 12/1. That's 30% of the book taken up by two riders who have practically no chance.
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365 open with Degs at 22/1, more like it. And Moreno at 9/1.
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Esteban Chavez has to represent a touch of value at around 40/1. He was impressive on stage 2.
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Madrazo 17/1 at PP, 150 on here.
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*Dan Martin Will be better for his fresh start on stage 2 when got his timing wrong but still covered a lot of ground riding solo to finish in 4th place. Suited by the climb, but will be further advantaged by the short and steep part toward the line, where he should be capable of kicking away if in company. Opened at 12/1 and has seen some expected popularity by shortening into 11/1. Still good E/W value. Honest campaigner. Expect forward showing. Go close.
1/2* Jelle Vanendert Was not that far away on stage 2 when he finished in 21st place amongst some handy climbers in Majka and Henao. If he can keep in contact with the attackers on the main early part he will be advantaged by the latter sections in the run to the line. Opened at 33/1 and drifted out into 66/1. Requires some luck, but is a handy type. Place claims best. Consider. Good luck to all, SP |
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It's Alejandro Valverde's birthday
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...this day 4 months ago.
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Just looking closer at this stage and it looks like positioning is going to be crucial, so Purito comes into calculations given the likelihood he has some inside knowledge about it, and KAT are riding prominently. He was the best of the GC men on stage 2 and looked really good, so might have been one to have kept safe, but all value now gone.
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How do you like your breakaway burger -- fried?
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That's what I get for listening to Matt Rendell on twitter. He posted the wrong Alejandro Valverde's profile
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That u-turn in the last few kms is mental. Anyone stuck behind in there could lose a fair amount of time here. The run-in is going to be very, very hectic.
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I think if you get a punchy climber in a good position into the start, it'll be a big advantage, but yes a crash is a distinct possibility as riders jostle for position on the run-in. Hopefully it's all safe, though.
The Costa Rican Valverde isn't riding competitively today, hasn't in a while looks like, so a win on his birthday is unlikely for him unless he beats his neighbour riding home from the shops! |
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Reza
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Wow what a finish!
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Moreno 3rd 20/1
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Got the tricast from the 4 riders I named in my first post
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And capitalised the correct one. But backed the wrong one
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Looked to me like there were Cofidis riders getting back on just before the final 500m. Be very interested to know where Bouhanni finished with tomorrow in mind, although it probably suits Degenkolb and Sagan better.
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Ah, it was Simon and Hardy for Cofidis who finished in the group at 0.03. Looks like TJVG lost time today, similar to Nibali on Stage 2 - got back on after the crash but didn't have the energy left for the finale?
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Excellent performance from Dan Martin to still finish with the main group after two wheel changes in the last 25kms and then a crash with 3kms to go, however excellent performances don't provide a winning dividend when outside of three places.
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