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marychain1
18 Aug 15 18:35
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Stage 2  »  Alhaurín de la Torre  ›  Caminito del Rey   (165k)

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What a first stage proper of a Grand Tour we have in store here. Think Mur de Bretagne then add about 1 kiometre and you have something approaching the finale of this stage, which finishes at Caminito Del Rey - King's Pathway - which is famed as the most dangerous walkway in the World. The final climb here is just over 3km at roughly 9%, a frankly astonishing opening to a Grand Tour, and the mountain walkway should provide a jaw-dropping background to the action.
Last kms

The stage itself only has two uncategorised climbs - both late on - but the stage is lumpy enough that it will suit a breakway and I'm sure we'll see Caja Rural and Columbia get their jerseys on display today or risk the anger of their DS and sponsors. The break has little chance of staying out today though. At the start of a Grand Tour everyone is a little anxious, which means the pace will be high, and the finale means the GC teams will be involved in driving the pace. The finish is hard enough that there could be some decent time gaps at the end of the stage, so everyone will be keen to be in a decent position. This in itself means that there is a danger of crashes in the run in as teams fight for position.

The finish at Caminito del Rey is in the Ardales mountains near Malaga. The walkway was built for workers at the hydroelectric plants at Chorro Falls and Gaitanejo Falls to enable them to move between them. Alfonso XIII crossed the walkway on its opening in 1921 and its current name was born. The walkway fell into disrepair as the concrete crumbled and fell between the steel reinforcement bars and after several deaths by people who fell, the walkway was closed in 2000. It was restored and repaired in 2011 by the Andalusian government, and reopened in March 2015.

This finish will be fought out by the out and out climbers and the GC riders will be well involved. The finish suits Froome and Quintana and it would be no surprise to see Purito Rodriguez try and make a mark in his home Grand Tour.

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Replies: 43
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Aug 15 19:46
This should be good fun...should be interesting to see the prices later on
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Aug 15 19:50
Padds already got them up. Froome 22/1 & Quintana 40/1 good enough for me. Wasn't expecting that.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 23 Aug 15 07:40
Not hard enough for Quintana. I agree re Froome, although not sure he's in much form
Punchy climbers will fight this out and Valverde has the best kick at the end. He should win this. I'm throwing a few quid at Sagan too....I wonder, just wonder if he feels he can do something today
By:
Happybacker
When: 23 Aug 15 08:47
I agree with MC that Froome and Quintana are definitely over priced. In the TDF Froome rode on the front and attacked from the very first uphill finish and i see no reason why he will ride any differently here, and if he does attack early on the climb he could put everyone in trouble here. Have missed the 22/1 but taken 18/1 ew.
If the favourites do sit on each other too long then someone like Dan Martin may fancy a dig at this, so have had a bit of the 16/1 ew on him.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 09:48
** Dan Martin One of the most consistent performers over such punchy terrain, and usually goes well fresh. With Padds, he opened at 11/1 and has drifted out to 16/1, but can be found as high as 18/1 with various. Excellent E/W prospects. Classy type. Makes very strong appeal. Consider closely.

* Purito Rodriguez One of the reasons I have been picking off the 40s about Purito on the GC on here, is because of this stage and the potential of the experienced and cunning little Spanish Cigar ambushing his GC rivals with a strong ride up this climb and opening up a nice if short gap on them, and in so doing potentially making Purito layers nervous about his chances. With Padds, opened at 7/1 and has shortened into 5/1, but is available at 15/2 with Lads. W/O basis probably best. Should he win or gain a gap over the GC contenders, a better go might be had on his GC price, although it will have a longer outlook. Rated highly. Go close.

1/2* Chris Froome Will be paying close attention if not having his team control proceedings, and I think the best tactic for him and SKY is to pick off time as it becomes available, knowing they can secure the GC in the ITT. Froome can stretch his condition for a long duration and by putting his Tour rivals under pressure early on, SKY can solve the questions concerning the fresher GC riders, particularly in AST. Essentially, going out as hard as Froome can early on, is the best tactic I believe, which means testing himself and his rivals on this stage is a distinct possibility. With Padds, opened at the 22/1 MC got and has shortened into 18/1 presently, and is as low as 12/1. At that price now is probably best on a W/O basis. Expect a forward showing. Must be respected.

1/4* Peter Sagan He loves to ride his bicycle. Had a good hit-out in the prologue. Looks fresh. Nevertheless, his performance on the climb will be reliant on the factors of how the race is being staged. Probably requires hard riding in a long stretched-out line, and be positioned no further down than about a dozen riders or so. With Padds, opened at 18/1 and has drifted right out into 33/1 with them and 40/1 with various. Excellent E/W value. Will go well if the finale is raced to suit. Requires some luck. Worthy of some consideration.

Good luck to all,
SP
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 10:11
I think this final climb is much harder than it looks on the profile. As far as I can work it out it's nearly 4km @ 8%+
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 11:17
I agree with that -- originally had it at about 3.5 kms at 5.5% but it does look steeper than the Mur de Bretagne, and therefore closer to 8.5%, and why I have discounted a rider like Vanendert.
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 13:18
Pedraza (Columbia) & Gonçalves (Caja Rural) ARE in the break, along with Niemiec (Lampre), Villela (Garmin), Lindeman (Lotto Jumbo) & Montaguti (Ag2R)
By:
virtuoso
When: 23 Aug 15 14:40
Pelucchi abandons after a crash at 25km
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 15:17
It's Nelson Oliveira in the break, not Niemiec. Thought it was a bit strange for the rider who is surely Lampre's best GC hope to be in the break in the first road stage.
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 15:46
Colossal crash! Awful crash here.
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 15:47
Tiralongo hurt. Someone from IAM and someone from Lampre badly hurt.
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 15:49
Nibali got caught up in that - his bad luck continues
By:
virtuoso
When: 23 Aug 15 15:51
Nasty crash that
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 15:58
f*ck my luck
By:
virtuoso
When: 23 Aug 15 16:00
really no idea who to bet on currently
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 16:02
Valverde & Rodriguez pick up some bonus seconds at the sprint
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 16:03
There goes Sagan's chances -- tangled-up in that crash too.
Peloton still require bringing these escapasits back -- they should do -- and it's shaping up as a GC tussle as KAT and MOV continue to drill the pace on the front. SKY just in behind too.
By:
virtuoso
When: 23 Aug 15 16:12
Nibili pretty much back on
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 16:12
Some classic Nibali drafting here
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 16:13
Valverde already on the front?
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 16:16
Nope -- all wearing similar glasses in MOV.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 16:19
Fireworks getting set...
By:
virtuoso
When: 23 Aug 15 16:21
Few Coins on Dan Martin i think is all ill play today
By:
virtuoso
When: 23 Aug 15 16:35
Quite unexpected result!
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 16:37
Wow that climb did some serious damage.
By:
GoBallistic
When: 23 Aug 15 16:39
Thank god for Chaves, I was all in against Dumoulin Plain
By:
GoBallistic
When: 23 Aug 15 16:51
Took 1000 about Chaves for the overall last night Happy - although he'll probably nosedive like he did after being good on the first climb last year
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 16:59
Chaotic climb. Tough too. Deceiving in nature to some extent.
Don't know what to make of Quintana's crack up? Thought he would've blitzed that group. Not that convinced he was setting it up for Valverde and just got caught up in the lead initially, and was then instructed to go on with it.
Dan Martin just left it too late -- but as always -- ate up a huge amount of ground.
I don't know how Dumoulin didn't just hit the wall at some point there, tailed out, and opened up the podium for Dan Martin and a place return -- would've topped off a lovely day after Greipel's win in Germany.
No complaints though -- very exciting!
By:
sixtwosix
When: 23 Aug 15 17:06
What a bizarre ending.

None of the Le Tour big players looking good at all .
Quintana emptying after making the break perhaps the oddest of the lot.
Early days but it looks like the tour may have finished some of these guys for the year .......why oh why Nibali is trying all 3 in one season .

Should be very interesting and not at all predicatable based on today.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 23 Aug 15 17:44
Nibali didn't ride the Giro this season, so not a condition problem, just got unlucky there in the crash when his replacement bike was late in coming up from the convoy, I believe.
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 19:19
Even though there were big gaps on the climb none of the big favourites will be overly disturbed by the time gaps created as a result - expect Nibali, but he got badly stitched up by the crash and I think he'll be a little bit aggreived by what was a definite upping of the pace by Movistar and Sky after it. I think that makes Aru Astana's out and out leader now if he wasn't already.
By:
CJ70
When: 23 Aug 15 19:39
Looks like Nibali getting booted out.
By:
CJ70
When: 23 Aug 15 19:42
http://bit.ly/1PtBSgU

Blatant. If he's not it's only as previous winner that saves him, a domestique would probably get a ban for that.
By:
CJ70
When: 23 Aug 15 19:47
1.01 available on H2H V Majka if you trust that Vuelta organisers aren't going to change their mind, I'm not.
By:
marychain1
When: 23 Aug 15 19:49
Thats SO funny
By:
CJ70
When: 23 Aug 15 19:50
Astana DS thrown out as well.
By:
virtuoso
When: 23 Aug 15 21:44
lol pretty blatant. I guess its a move they hoped would not get seen. Should of checked TV pictures first haha
By:
sixtwosix
When: 23 Aug 15 21:54
Dear me , to think in the saturation tv coverage of 2015 .....and as a 3 time grand tour winner that would not get seen .....idiot.
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