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Looks like we have a 29 man break after the 1st climb, with 4 EUC including Rolland and Voeckler, 3 TCG with Tallansky, Hejsedal and Martin, 3 ALM (Bardet, Riblon, Bakelants), Pauwels and Purito. I doubt they will be given a big gap
todays coins have gone on bardet @ 14 and Purito for kom @ 2.4
Two Tinkoff and Movistar doms up the road, bit of a difference in the climbing quality. Kreuziger & Rogers(Given up on Contador? or going to try a long one?) for TCS and Castroviejo & Anacona for Movistar.
It's only when there's no thread that we realise how spoilt we were with MC putting up a thread each day.
Sorry boys work commitments have meant I've been unable to do the fred today. I'll have tomorrow's up later.
cheers MC
G'day gents,
PP have been the first to go up with their prices throughout the race, and they installed Gallopin and Sagan at the top of the board. However, soon after some big money came through, and Purito went 15/1, 11/1, 9/1, so instead of attempting to lay the top two, it might have been prudent to take the value about Purito, since there was some smart money around about him trying (and making) the break, today. The other mover was Sammy Sanchez, and I thought that after TJVG's abandon he would be a likely break attempt, but apparently not.
The peloton are not going to let this go too much with Bardet involved, I would suggest.
PP have been the first to go up with their prices throughout the race, and they installed Gallopin and Sagan at the top of the board. However, soon after some big money came through, and Purito went 15/1, 11/1, 9/1, so instead of attempting to lay the top two, it might have been prudent to take the value about Purito, since there was some smart money around about him trying (and making) the break, today. The other mover was Sammy Sanchez, and I thought that after TJVG's abandon he would be a likely break attempt, but apparently not.
The peloton are not going to let this go too much with Bardet involved, I would suggest.
TFR setting the pace even though they have Jungels and Arredondo in the break, so Talansky and Bardet are both dangers for Mollem's top 10.
Renshaw abandons. Not sure it'll affect Cav that much as he hasn't been using him.
quintana is one of the oldest looking 25 year olds i've ever seen, dude looks 45+
what's you guys thought's on when froome will attempt to close the tour out?
Doubt Froome will attack anywhere but Alpe unless someone else is really weak. He doesn't need to.
Quintana comes from a peasant family in the Boyaca region of Colombia, where such strong facial features are common among the native people.
Yep, Froome has already closed out the race, he might just look to stamp his authority with a stage win on one of these remaining Alp stages.
Yep, Froome has already closed out the race, he might just look to stamp his authority with a stage win on one of these remaining Alp stages.
Good to see Jungels in the break again, getting some good experience for the talented young rider.
Peloton split on the descent, there.
Gap coming down like a glacier.
Peloton split on the descent, there.
Gap coming down like a glacier.
De Gendt made that selection in the break by using the Intermediate to push the pace.
Breakaway reforms, De Gendt goes out the back, but the gap to the peloton is now approaching 2 minutes, which is more than doable if we get some GC fisticuffs. If SKY are still holding the same line on their descent stance than I am not that attracted to Froome's price here at 14/1, at all.
Purito is just in this for KOM points at the top of this climb, isn't he? Bloody good descender if he goes on with it, but will he?
Not sure what Mick and Kreuziger were up to. Both shelled. Not sure J-Rod is all that good downhill is he? Maybe I've just not noticed it before.
Expecting someone out of the favourites to go on the Glandon.
Expecting someone out of the favourites to go on the Glandon.
They're just on that little trough after about 8-9kms, still 16kms of climbing remaining on to the top.
Purito can descend well enough, although I can't bring a specific stage to mind. He looks comfortable and can kick away from most of these near the top, but will he go on with it? Gap holding...
thanks for the replies. got quite a lot on froome, haven't greened out yet. I guess quintana's going to be forced into making a big attack soon. where do you think that will happen?
This is turning breakaway advantage, I would suggest.
Not sure Quintana will try anything big here. Maybe Croix de fer tomorrow if Valverde also drops Froome otherwise it's only La Toussire or Alpe
Not sure I'd fancy on the descent out of that breakaway. Will they just wait until the final climb?
The peloton needs to become active for them to bring this break back.
With the way Movistar are riding it would be good to see Contador get 3rd place on the podium in Paris.
Select climber-heavy breakaway, featuring 10:
Purito
Rolland
Bardet
Fuglsang
Winner Anacona
Talansky
Jungels
Gautier
Caruso
Pauwels
Purito
Rolland
Bardet
Fuglsang
Winner Anacona
Talansky
Jungels
Gautier
Caruso
Pauwels
Spanner in works of the breakaway. Barguil has jumped off the front.
That's what the peloton needed, that has already changed things in the peloton -- bit more active -- big loss for Froome to lose Porte.
Didn't see just saw a helmet there. Bertie off the front as well.
So, there's no other one as Bertie joins those three.
Must have been someone from the breakaway dropping back. Apologies.
Contador protecting his GC place from Gesink here?
Contador protecting his GC place from Gesink here?
Contador has put in 45 secs over the peloton, just like that.
Bardet a good descender as we recently saw in the Pra Loup stage of the Crit Dauphine.
How on earth is Jungels climbing with these? Should be a good descender but whether he can get up the final climb is another thing.
He is a young rider, nobody knows what he is capable of doing as yet.
Only the one French stage victory, coming from Bardet's teammate Vuillermoz.
Bardet is an improving type, anything we saw in Crit Dauphine, you have to think he will repeat or go even better. The headwind will hurt him, but it's fragmented behind, so it's not going to be a major disadvantage, I don't think.
Quintana's one hundred metre long attacks every day are ludicrous, Froome or Thomas cruise back up along with little effort .
Over 3 minutes behind requires a lot of pulling back , they are clearly more worried about about defending 2nd and 3rd.
My lay of Purito was spot on , a ludicrous price at less than 7's.
Bardet should get home now , he is a topclimber.
Over 3 minutes behind requires a lot of pulling back , they are clearly more worried about about defending 2nd and 3rd.
My lay of Purito was spot on , a ludicrous price at less than 7's.
Bardet should get home now , he is a topclimber.
Bardet out by 38 secs, Fuglsang group reformed behind.
Very even riding from Bardet, Jungels showing himself here, will be remembering this!
Bardet has lost 10 secs, but on the descent Bardet will regather himself and perhaps his lead.
Chase losing their firepower -- Bardet still looks good and the descent will help -- still in the advantage, I believe.
4 riders looking at each other now , giving Bardet the day.
50 secs for Bardet, just needs to keep it tidy and no mechanical.
thanks nugget. have backed him for a couple of stages so glad ones finally come off. shame his likely victory is going to affect Puriots kom chances. Oh well!
nice one.
Bardet after being in the break all day still putting time into the GC group.
Bardet after being in the break all day still putting time into the GC group.
he seems like a pretty complete rider for a relivtly young man
Just to go back to razz's question which CJ answered to some extent. I initially thought Quintana will attack as we get into the Pyrenees since he had no other option, but that never really eventuated, and whilst he has tried his hand over the last few stages here-and-there, nothing has stuck nor really even looked promising.
I wonder now with the way MOV have handled Quintana, in very much a long-term family-orientated outlook, whether they really get anything by pushing Quintana into an attack on these next two mountaintop-finishing stages. 1.) Froome looks indestructible. 2.) Quintana is too far back, now. 3.) MOV risk putting a hole in Quintana's confidence at such a young age, for no real gain.
MOV's only real tactic was to give Froome a hard ride, grind him down bit-by-bit, and they haven't been capable of doing that, so why put all their chips into the one -- short-term -- basket and risk hurting Quintana, when another second-place finish is an excellent result for a future multiple GT winner.
Having said all that, the big difference of the next two final Alp stages, which have mountaintop finishes, is just their short length. At 138kms and 111kms respectively, Prudhomme has invited both long-range and GC attacking riding. However, whether we see that is another thing at these present time gaps, and Froome can manage anything here at these distances. Moreover, I never saw weakness from Froome in 2013, he didn't have a bad day like some GC riders are known for having during a GT. On stage 20 he looked to give the win to Quintana, nevertheless he lost only about 30 secs from his 5+min lead.
The only discrepancy is that in 2013, Froome had three stage wins whilst this year he has only got the one win. Since SKY have been consistent to not push on the descents over these last two stages, and with two stages finishing on the mountain next, I think Froome will be the rider to want these prestigious victories, and whilst he will get attacked he can answer them all and still fight for stage glory.
By greening out over taking insurance, you are suggesting that not only will Froome crash out, but both of the next two MOV riders will not finish the race, also. What's the point of having G in green, when all that is required is to write your own ticket for Bertie?
Insurance is always advisable at 30% of the potential win, however I think it might be much less than that by covering riders in the GC individually rather than greening out on a fantasy novel.
I wonder now with the way MOV have handled Quintana, in very much a long-term family-orientated outlook, whether they really get anything by pushing Quintana into an attack on these next two mountaintop-finishing stages. 1.) Froome looks indestructible. 2.) Quintana is too far back, now. 3.) MOV risk putting a hole in Quintana's confidence at such a young age, for no real gain.
MOV's only real tactic was to give Froome a hard ride, grind him down bit-by-bit, and they haven't been capable of doing that, so why put all their chips into the one -- short-term -- basket and risk hurting Quintana, when another second-place finish is an excellent result for a future multiple GT winner.
Having said all that, the big difference of the next two final Alp stages, which have mountaintop finishes, is just their short length. At 138kms and 111kms respectively, Prudhomme has invited both long-range and GC attacking riding. However, whether we see that is another thing at these present time gaps, and Froome can manage anything here at these distances. Moreover, I never saw weakness from Froome in 2013, he didn't have a bad day like some GC riders are known for having during a GT. On stage 20 he looked to give the win to Quintana, nevertheless he lost only about 30 secs from his 5+min lead.
The only discrepancy is that in 2013, Froome had three stage wins whilst this year he has only got the one win. Since SKY have been consistent to not push on the descents over these last two stages, and with two stages finishing on the mountain next, I think Froome will be the rider to want these prestigious victories, and whilst he will get attacked he can answer them all and still fight for stage glory.
By greening out over taking insurance, you are suggesting that not only will Froome crash out, but both of the next two MOV riders will not finish the race, also. What's the point of having G in green, when all that is required is to write your own ticket for Bertie?
Insurance is always advisable at 30% of the potential win, however I think it might be much less than that by covering riders in the GC individually rather than greening out on a fantasy novel.
Not a hope of Quintana breaking Froome for 3 minutes tomorrow ..... that is if he can even beat him.
Saturday's finish on Alpe D'Huez is a visual feast, but is not likely to have any significant effort on the overall result.
It is tomorrow or never for Quintana , but does he look like he can go from 5 - 10 km from home and blow Froome away .....the answer is no.
Saturday's finish on Alpe D'Huez is a visual feast, but is not likely to have any significant effort on the overall result.
It is tomorrow or never for Quintana , but does he look like he can go from 5 - 10 km from home and blow Froome away .....the answer is no.
The only fantasy novel here is the rubbish that swingingpick posts.
WAS out all day watched the Highlights Does anyone do combination forecasts 
Bauke Mollema * 134.02 8.00 Back -8.00
Dani Navarro 100.41 7.00 Back 22-Jul-15 23:29 -7.00
Nairo Quintana * 81.99 10.00 Back -10.00
Peter Sagan 44.49 12.00 Back 22-Jul-15 22:52 -12.00
Pierre Rolland 25.30 25.00 Back 22-Jul-15 23:25 -25.00
Richie Porte * 150.00 5.00 Back -5.00
Romain Bardet * 23.15 27.00 Back 598.0
I did leave lays of an even oner in for all ,after timer of the year
Bauke Mollema * 134.02 8.00 Back -8.00
Dani Navarro 100.41 7.00 Back 22-Jul-15 23:29 -7.00
Nairo Quintana * 81.99 10.00 Back -10.00
Peter Sagan 44.49 12.00 Back 22-Jul-15 22:52 -12.00
Pierre Rolland 25.30 25.00 Back 22-Jul-15 23:25 -25.00
Richie Porte * 150.00 5.00 Back -5.00
Romain Bardet * 23.15 27.00 Back 598.0
I did leave lays of an even oner in for all ,after timer of the year
Hi
Can anyone tell me what price Bardet was broadly for Thursday's stage, on here
Thanks
Can anyone tell me what price Bardet was broadly for Thursday's stage, on here
Thanks
Bardet was 17/1 at SP and was being matched at 15/1 on approaching the top of the big climb prior to the long descent.
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