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marychain1
21 Jul 15 20:01
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
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Stage 17  »  Digne-Les-Bains  ›  Pra-Loup   (161k)

A repeat of Stage 6 of the Daphine, won by Romain Bardet after a daring attack on the descent of the Col d'Allos


Following yesterday's rest day we have the first and probably the least intimidating of four stages of Alpine climbing. This stage has 5 categorised climbs, but the first two of them are only Cat 3, with a Cat 1 and two Cat 2s, which are the third climb and the final climb at Pra-Loup. There is every likelihood that this stage will be again decided by the descent of the Col d'Allos, as there is every chance of building up a significant gap on the descent and maintaining it on the shortish final climb of Pra Loup, especially if the forecast rain materialises. The stage starts in Digne-les-Bains and heads South East towards the Med in the Nice/Antibes area. The start of the first climb comes after roughly 34km, the Cat 3 Col des Lèques (6km @5.3%). After this climb the riders reach the town of Castellane and head North. Here the riders skirt the outstandingly beautiful Verdon Gorge, where the turqoise-green Verdon forms a river valley through 700m high Limestone cliffs. At St Julien the route turns away from the gorge and towards Vergons. Here the riders reach the second climb, the Cat 3 Col des Toutes Aures (6.1km @ 3.1%). There is a long descent of the Toutes Aures at the bottom of which the riders will turn once again Northwards and head immediately upwards towards the Cat 2 Col de la Colle-Saint-Michel. At 11km @ 5.2% this is a long climb and by the time they have got onto the climb proper they will already have taken on several km of false flat. Following a short descent the riders again find a section of false flat where the intermediate sprint is located. Following the sprint the road goes uphill again, with about another 12km of false flat before the road cranks up further at Allos.

The Cat 1 Col d'Allos is 14km @ 5.5%, but they will have gained over 1100m from the valley floor and the Col d'Allos reaches 2250m. This is not a hard or steep climb, but it is very long. The GC teams should be working hard on this climb, and even if Sky do not ride hard, I would expect Astana, Movistar and Tinkoff to be driving a fast pace to test their rivals after the rest day. The descent from Col d'Allos could be more significant than the climb. Rain looks a distinct possiblity, and this is a long, fast and technical descent with uneven portions of road, and places with adverse camber.


The final climb is Pra Loup, a Cat 2 climb that is 6.2km @ 6.5%. This is the climb that broke Eddy Merckx in 1975 when he was caught and passed by Bernard Thévenet. It starts off fairly easily, with gradients of around 5.5% before getting steeper in the second kilometre. After this the gradient eases, with a few km at or around 6%. The final 1250m or so get steeper with gradients above 8%. This is the second time Pra Loup has been an arrival destination on the Tour. Thévenet won in 1975, and then when the Tour came back in 1980, Jos De Schoenmaecker took the honours. Personally I don't see this as a stage the break wins. It could go right out to 10-15 minutes again, but I think the amount of long climbs on this stage will mean the break getting caught. The GC teams will want to test each other following the rest day and the huge number of long, shallow climbing miles are perfect for the GC teams to drive a fast pace. Descending skills are absolutely paramount, especially if the rains come, and I see Vincenzo Nibali continuing his improving form and taking the stage.

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Replies: 165
By:
ekbalko
When: 21 Jul 15 22:41
Should be a brilliant week the big question can Sky keep up the pace of the last fortnight? I will be very surprised if they can keep it up the 3 big days without a scare somewhere along the way.
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 09:14
The race is over
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 09:16
60% chance of thunderstorms Grin
By:
virtuoso
When: 22 Jul 15 10:12
Tough stage to call. Could just be an elite group at the front. Any real chance for a break away ?
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 10:39
The breakaway riders seem to be in commission today.  If it's between the GC riders on the final climb Froome @ 17's and Quintana @ 30's seem overs.  Hard to tell what Movistar will do, they could ride today and set up an attack on the col d'Allos decent.  Or they could ride tomorrow and set up Valverde for a stage win.  I doubt they will do both so I think we get a break either today or tomorrow.  Maybe Movistar join forces with Astana who could look to keep the break under control and set up Nibali for an attack on the col d'Allos decent.  Not sure if Astana are convinced about Nibali's form though.  So yeah, I've got no idea really.  I'll probably back a few riders for the break and maybe make a bet or two later in the stage.
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 10:41
My main bet is Nibali today, it's time for the shark of Messina to take a bite. I've also done some much smaller bets on Kelderman, Mick, Cummings, Coppel and Dennis.
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 10:51
I got Wilco too, thought 80's was an alright price.  Interesting to note Joaquim Rodriguez has been saving energy, he finished 122,86,11,107 in the last 4 stages.  He already has two wins and could be itching to do something in the alps.  He'll probably need to get in a break if he wants the mountain jersey. 10's is a bit short for me though.
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 11:02
Pinot at 20's looks tempting.  Finished with Froome and Quintana on the stage 12 climb to Plateau de Beille.  2nd on stage 14 into Mende.  Half an hour behind Froome in the GC so will be allowed to go in the break again.  Looks some value.
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 11:11
Cant have Pinot for today, I know his descending has improved and he might attack for mountain points if that is now a target but he won't like the descent off Col d'Allos so will need a big lead. I think stages 19 and 20 will be the ones he'll have his eye on.
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 11:13
And believe me, it takes a lot for me to find reasons NOT to back Thibault Pinot Wink
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 11:22
Yeah good point mc, Pinot has been a terrible descender in the past.  As for stages 19 and 20 I just cant see anyone not named Quintana or Froome winning either of them, doesn't mean others wont try I guess.  Good luck
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 11:35
I think Bernard Hinault might of mentioned that the col d'allos descent is one the hardest/dangerous descents he has seen.  Add to that there is a forecast for some occasional thunderstorm activity beginning at 3pm local time.  Could make things interesting.
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 11:42
Could be one for Warren Barguil the late breaking dare-devil descender
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 12:00
Attacks already coming
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 12:27
Rodriguez, Pinot, Talansky, Sagan among riders in a move but it's brought back by the peleton.  Wonder who is controlling things on the front of the Peleton?
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 12:31
Astana apparently
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 12:41
Onto the Col de Lecques, surely the break will get away here
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 12:46
Group of 36 Laugh
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 12:46
Including Rolland, Rodriguez, Talansky, Uran, Kruijswijk, Yates, Majka, Hesjedal, Peraud
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 12:47
Attack Quintana
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 12:48
Sagan is there of course
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 12:48

Jul 22, 2015 -- 6:47AM, marychain1 wrote:


Attack Quintana


Surprised

By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 12:53
not many left in the front group

TJVG dropped

best action always happens when there are no pictures
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 12:54
The race is going mental and we're watching Ashley House talking about what happened on the rest day Crazy
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 12:55
What's Quintana up to?

Given up on catching Froome and now helping Valverde get on the podium?
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 12:56
The infamous "TJ" bad day?
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 13:04
TJVG already at 1'20. Not good for him or his backers, he could lose a hell of a lot of time today.
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 13:09
Interesting interview with Dave Brailsford, just said Sky will not take risks on the descent. If anyone gets time by taking crazy risks then good luck to them. He said Quintana would prefer an uphill finish rather than a downhill and he said Nibali is so far back on the GC that even if he gets a minute or two it won't really affect Sky or Froome.
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 13:09
TJ @ 2 mins and called medical car Shocked
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 13:10
I still dont think Valverde will finish on the podium, thinks its a waste if Movistar are riding on the front here

TJ will abandon
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 13:12
Froome would be stupid to risk anything on the descent
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 13:14
It is an uphill finish dave
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 13:15
4 riders at the front
Pauwels, Bakelants, Second, Valls
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 13:18
It's an uphill finish but by far the greatest potential area to attack is the descent
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 13:27
Good tactics from Sky, two riders in the break.  Froome won't be isolated after the descent if Quintana, Valverde, contador get a gap on him.
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 13:32
Contador has Majka in the break
Movistar have 3 riders in the break
Nibali has Kangert in the break

Could be interesting if Froome is dropped by Nibali, Quintana, Valverde and Contador on the descent and they link up with their teammates from the break.  He won't want to take any risks but Froome is not that bad of a descender though.  Could be some good action.
By:
marychain1
When: 22 Jul 15 13:37
I think Sky are saying they are not going to ride by putting riders in the break. Surprising tactics but this probably means the break wins today.
By:
nugget
When: 22 Jul 15 13:39
Surely Astana and Movistar cant miss a chance here though
By:
Regular Fries
When: 22 Jul 15 13:42
looks like I'm kissing goodbye to my TJ w/o top 4 bet :-(
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