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Should be a brilliant week the big question can Sky keep up the pace of the last fortnight? I will be very surprised if they can keep it up the 3 big days without a scare somewhere along the way.
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The race is over
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60% chance of thunderstorms
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Tough stage to call. Could just be an elite group at the front. Any real chance for a break away ?
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The breakaway riders seem to be in commission today. If it's between the GC riders on the final climb Froome @ 17's and Quintana @ 30's seem overs. Hard to tell what Movistar will do, they could ride today and set up an attack on the col d'Allos decent. Or they could ride tomorrow and set up Valverde for a stage win. I doubt they will do both so I think we get a break either today or tomorrow. Maybe Movistar join forces with Astana who could look to keep the break under control and set up Nibali for an attack on the col d'Allos decent. Not sure if Astana are convinced about Nibali's form though. So yeah, I've got no idea really. I'll probably back a few riders for the break and maybe make a bet or two later in the stage.
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My main bet is Nibali today, it's time for the shark of Messina to take a bite. I've also done some much smaller bets on Kelderman, Mick, Cummings, Coppel and Dennis.
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I got Wilco too, thought 80's was an alright price. Interesting to note Joaquim Rodriguez has been saving energy, he finished 122,86,11,107 in the last 4 stages. He already has two wins and could be itching to do something in the alps. He'll probably need to get in a break if he wants the mountain jersey. 10's is a bit short for me though.
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Pinot at 20's looks tempting. Finished with Froome and Quintana on the stage 12 climb to Plateau de Beille. 2nd on stage 14 into Mende. Half an hour behind Froome in the GC so will be allowed to go in the break again. Looks some value.
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Cant have Pinot for today, I know his descending has improved and he might attack for mountain points if that is now a target but he won't like the descent off Col d'Allos so will need a big lead. I think stages 19 and 20 will be the ones he'll have his eye on.
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And believe me, it takes a lot for me to find reasons NOT to back Thibault Pinot
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Yeah good point mc, Pinot has been a terrible descender in the past. As for stages 19 and 20 I just cant see anyone not named Quintana or Froome winning either of them, doesn't mean others wont try I guess. Good luck
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I think Bernard Hinault might of mentioned that the col d'allos descent is one the hardest/dangerous descents he has seen. Add to that there is a forecast for some occasional thunderstorm activity beginning at 3pm local time. Could make things interesting.
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Could be one for Warren Barguil the late breaking dare-devil descender
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Attacks already coming
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Rodriguez, Pinot, Talansky, Sagan among riders in a move but it's brought back by the peleton. Wonder who is controlling things on the front of the Peleton?
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Astana apparently
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Onto the Col de Lecques, surely the break will get away here
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Group of 36
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Including Rolland, Rodriguez, Talansky, Uran, Kruijswijk, Yates, Majka, Hesjedal, Peraud
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Attack Quintana
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Sagan is there of course
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not many left in the front group
TJVG dropped best action always happens when there are no pictures |
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The race is going mental and we're watching Ashley House talking about what happened on the rest day
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What's Quintana up to?
Given up on catching Froome and now helping Valverde get on the podium? |
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The infamous "TJ" bad day?
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TJVG already at 1'20. Not good for him or his backers, he could lose a hell of a lot of time today.
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Interesting interview with Dave Brailsford, just said Sky will not take risks on the descent. If anyone gets time by taking crazy risks then good luck to them. He said Quintana would prefer an uphill finish rather than a downhill and he said Nibali is so far back on the GC that even if he gets a minute or two it won't really affect Sky or Froome.
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TJ @ 2 mins and called medical car
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I still dont think Valverde will finish on the podium, thinks its a waste if Movistar are riding on the front here
TJ will abandon |
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Froome would be stupid to risk anything on the descent
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It is an uphill finish dave
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4 riders at the front
Pauwels, Bakelants, Second, Valls |
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It's an uphill finish but by far the greatest potential area to attack is the descent
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Good tactics from Sky, two riders in the break. Froome won't be isolated after the descent if Quintana, Valverde, contador get a gap on him.
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Contador has Majka in the break
Movistar have 3 riders in the break Nibali has Kangert in the break Could be interesting if Froome is dropped by Nibali, Quintana, Valverde and Contador on the descent and they link up with their teammates from the break. He won't want to take any risks but Froome is not that bad of a descender though. Could be some good action. |
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I think Sky are saying they are not going to ride by putting riders in the break. Surprising tactics but this probably means the break wins today.
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Surely Astana and Movistar cant miss a chance here though
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looks like I'm kissing goodbye to my TJ w/o top 4 bet :-(
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