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Stage 16 » Bourg-de-Péage › Gap (201k)
A long stage and largely picturesque one that finishes in the Alps and with a nailbiting and technical descent into Gap.
The start town in Bourg-de-Péage in the Rhone-Alpes, near yesterday's finish town of Valence. There's two Cat 2 climbs in the second half of the stage, and a breakaway winner is a possibility, but there is every chance that the descent into Gap will be the decisive section of today's route. The first section is fairly flat as they head South, past Valence to the beautiful hillside and medieval town of Crest. From here the peloton turn East towards the Alps and the road head gently upwards.
At 120km the riders will face the first categorised climb, the Cat 2 Col de Cabre. This is not a very hard climb, but it is quite long and comes at the end of a period of small rises. 9.1km @ 4.6% should not cause too many problems. After the Cabre the peloton continue to head Eastwards towards Gap. The riders actually arrive at Gap at 177km but they take an interesting little detour first. The Cat 2 Col de Manse is a familiar tour climb, but it is the technical descent that should see the fun and games happen. The climb is 8.9km @ 5.6% and we should see attacks on the climb, but the descent is a must-see. This is the descent where Belocki locked up and crashed and Armstrong had to detour through a field in 2003. This is the descent where Contador attacked Andy Schleck in 2011 and Schleck criticised the route for being dangerous after losing over a minute. This is also where Contador and Froome had words after Contador crashed in 2013. That stage was won by Rui Costa from the break.
It's an interesting stage with many possible scenarios. Many riders and teams are desperate to salvage something from the Tour and are running out of chances. There are some very tired riders around too, the heat has been awful in the last few days and although there is a rest day following this stage the riders will be all-too-aware of the three consecutive days of terrible Alpine climbing that awaits them after that. On that basis you would think the breakaway is virtually nailed on to take this stage. However, the position of the intermediate sprint and the lack of initial climbs does complicate this picture somewhat. The green jersey is still very much up for grabs and Lotto, Giant and possibly Etixx may not wish to let a break go until after the sprint which is at 86km. Normally it would be difficult to prevent a group escaping for that long but with the very flat start to the stage it could be possible. It will be very interesting to see who gets in the break today when it does get away, and then the descent into Gap should be thrilling, especially if it is wet. This stage might suit riders like Andrew Talansky or Tony Gallopin.
A long stage and largely picturesque one that finishes in the Alps and with a nailbiting and technical descent into Gap.
The start town in Bourg-de-Péage in the Rhone-Alpes, near yesterday's finish town of Valence. There's two Cat 2 climbs in the second half of the stage, and a breakaway winner is a possibility, but there is every chance that the descent into Gap will be the decisive section of today's route. The first section is fairly flat as they head South, past Valence to the beautiful hillside and medieval town of Crest. From here the peloton turn East towards the Alps and the road head gently upwards.
At 120km the riders will face the first categorised climb, the Cat 2 Col de Cabre. This is not a very hard climb, but it is quite long and comes at the end of a period of small rises. 9.1km @ 4.6% should not cause too many problems. After the Cabre the peloton continue to head Eastwards towards Gap. The riders actually arrive at Gap at 177km but they take an interesting little detour first. The Cat 2 Col de Manse is a familiar tour climb, but it is the technical descent that should see the fun and games happen. The climb is 8.9km @ 5.6% and we should see attacks on the climb, but the descent is a must-see. This is the descent where Belocki locked up and crashed and Armstrong had to detour through a field in 2003. This is the descent where Contador attacked Andy Schleck in 2011 and Schleck criticised the route for being dangerous after losing over a minute. This is also where Contador and Froome had words after Contador crashed in 2013. That stage was won by Rui Costa from the break.
It's an interesting stage with many possible scenarios. Many riders and teams are desperate to salvage something from the Tour and are running out of chances. There are some very tired riders around too, the heat has been awful in the last few days and although there is a rest day following this stage the riders will be all-too-aware of the three consecutive days of terrible Alpine climbing that awaits them after that. On that basis you would think the breakaway is virtually nailed on to take this stage. However, the position of the intermediate sprint and the lack of initial climbs does complicate this picture somewhat. The green jersey is still very much up for grabs and Lotto, Giant and possibly Etixx may not wish to let a break go until after the sprint which is at 86km. Normally it would be difficult to prevent a group escaping for that long but with the very flat start to the stage it could be possible. It will be very interesting to see who gets in the break today when it does get away, and then the descent into Gap should be thrilling, especially if it is wet. This stage might suit riders like Andrew Talansky or Tony Gallopin.
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Greipel's win in Stage 15 makes the intermediate sprint all-important here. It's also not beyond the realms of possibility for Sagan to contend for the stage win here.
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I've gone for Uran 66/1, Talansky 66/1, Mick Rogers 50/1 & Hesjedal 33/1
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Tommy V, Rogers ,Rolland ,Barguil EW ,Also Mollema small ew GL ALL was looking at Michal K again but cant see any value in the odds on offer thought would be bigger
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Follwed u on Talansky MC as well G luck ..
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Ive bet Valaverde as well think this could be his stage
 lookin forward to the week ahead also the golf tomorrow afternoon ,if carlsberg could make mondays  |
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Yeah should be good today. Imagine if England hadn't been so gutless in the cricket as well. Would have been a perfect storm. And I've got an "admin" day today...
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Spoilsports 6 places today. Lads, Pads and Fred all 4 places.
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Just to expand on MC's excellent thread: In 2013, when Rui Costa won, he came out of a 26 rider group. In 2011, when Thor Hushovd won, he came out of a 10 rider group; and in 2010, when Sergio Paulinho won, he came out of a 6 rider group. Some of those groups were already in quite a chaotic state when the eventual decisive attacks occurred, however all of the break-winning moves came on the Col de Manse, so as MC states this climb is always the staging point for the breakaway, it's just that some go on the approach and are brought back and some go on the descent and go clear before fighting it out in the finale. I therefore would advance the scenario that every rider and his dog will look to make this break, and we may have such a frantic opening to the stage that it takes some time until the peloton are happy with the break's composition that they just temp ride to the finish through tiredness, allowing the breakaway to fight it out.
*** Tony Gallopin Has been in highly impressive shape when amongst the main moves throughout the key stages, and is suggesting he has more to offer. LTS will be full of confidence after the Gorilla's win yesterday, and Gallopin might find the break on a stage which suits his characteristics since he can not only be competitive on the key climb, but has the engine to TT on the power-descent to the finish. Opened at 40/1, and has had a line out the front to be backed as he is now into 24/1. Still good E/W value. I would have him favourite. Excellent prospects. Treat warily. ** Jakob Fuglsang Will be looking to salvage something of this Tour for AST after it has been speculated that Nibali's contract will not be renewed and that essentially he has been sacked by the team. Started in ordinary form on the two Murs, however he has been full of riding on the key stages thereafter, showing highly-tuned characteristics to match -- for a long way -- the eventual stage winner Purito on the somewhat complicated stage 12 development. Another one who has the ability to attack on the climb or cover a move, and the necessary engine on the downhill to win. Opened at 27/1, and is still available at that price (various). Some value. Exciting proposition. * Pierre Rolland Has been riding very consistently on the key stages without setting the road on fire. EUC have taken no steps to hide their intentions of wanting a stage win and Rolland looks like the ideal candidate for them for this stage. Will have the advantage on the staging point. Opened at 125/1, now has drifted into 100/1, but is as low as 32/1. Excellent E/W value. Makes good appeal. Worthy of some consideration. 1/4* Mathias Frank Has been riding consistently on the key stages after a slow start, and he may have good stores of strength in reserve. Suited by the stage. Opened at 150/1, and still available at that price (b365). No surprise to see him involved amongst the race-winning moves. Keep safe. Good luck to all, SP |
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Think a breakaway should win this stage, whether that be an early long breakaway or a late move on the col du manse. The bookies seem to have Valverde, Nibali, and Gallopin as the leading three fancies but I can't see any of them being allowed to get in any sort of break, they would need it all to be back together towards the top of of the manse and to attack from there, and I just can't see that happening.
Have had a go at few riders who might hopefully get in a break or a late break out group, may add one or 2 in running once break has been sorted. As mentioned by several Talansky looks sure to be involved in the action at some point as Cannondale have been very active last few days, and this stage would appear to suit him for an attack on the final climb, backed 50/1 ew first 4. Have also done Majka at 66/1ew first 4. Although he is more suited to the summit finnishes and will be looking to get in a break in some of the alp stages, with a day off tomorrow he may fancy having a go today. If he wants to take the polka dot jersey then he may well want the points on offer on todays climbs. Another rider i think might fancy this is Michael Matthews, after doing incredibly well to hang in there for so long he has started to look much stronger last couple of days and was in a position to have a go yesterday just didn't quite have the legs to go with the powerhouse sprinters in the last 200m. If he wants to do anything this tour this would be his last chance, hopefully he will be a bit stronger again after yesterday and if he can get in the break and hang on in up the climb, he would be a dangerous man down the descent and the sprint to the line. backed 33/1 ew first 4. Gl all. |
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sagan in the 4s again
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3 days in a row in the break for Sagan. Have a few others in the break again but trading out is less profitable because Sagan is there. At least Sagan was a good pre-post price today.
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Allez Pierrick!
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I've not touched Sagan, which means he will presumably win today
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Didn't get any riders in the break.
It's a break situation as the peloton have turned off -- having a rest day prior to the Rest Day! The 2nd group -- the chasers -- have joined the break, that's a big group now, totalling 24 riders. Which makes it similar to 2013 when there were 26 riders featured, however it was in 2011 that EBH and Grivko were involved in the 10 rider break, and they are both here again. |
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*Historical aftertiming alert*
That victory by Fedrigo in 2012 in Pau was an amazing day, brings back great memories. I'd backed him at 66/1 for the stage win, and it was the 4th consecutive day I'd picked the winner following LL Sanchez @ 14/1, Greipel @ 11/4 and David Millar at 125/1. Don't think I'll ever get another run like that in my life. |
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No alerts necessary MC -- as the owner of these fine threads you have every right to post on anything at any time.
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I've got:
Hansen 125/1 (surely can't win with broken ribs) also after the break formed I took Navarro 10/1 Geschke 12/1 De Gendt 16/1 Riblon 25/1 all pretty small stakes, just for something to cheer on the Manse. |
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There's really something odd going on at Tinkoff with the amount of bike changes they are doing on every stage. Bad kit or have they got some strategy where they have different set ups for different terrain?
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Apparently there are 23 riders not 24 in the breakaway, so one must have given up.
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We saw that with Sagan yesterday, and with Bertie today, they're quite an innovative lot, similar to SKY to some degree, so they're trying something, but no idea what it might be beyond your suggestion CJ.
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I can't see what Contador could gain today though? It's a bit early to change if he fancies doing something on the climb.
Sagan has changed his bike as well today. My only thought is that they are getting rid of the GPS sensors, not sure why that would be an advantage though. Didier off the back of the break, so there's the extra man. |
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These are the riders in the break:
Sagan Grivko Riblon De Gendt Geschke Marco Haller Bob Jungels Nelson Oliveira Ruben Plaza Molina Daniel Navarro Fedrigo Pauwels Golas Trentin EBH Tekman Markel Irizar Aranburu Voeckler Imanol Erviti Ollo Adam Hansen Pantano Perichon Luis Angel Mardones is lost and Didier is now lost also, I believe. Require confirmation on that, though. |
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Like in 2013, the big group was being attacked prior to the climb and it became quite chaotic. That is probably the situation we will see today with Sagan and EBH present. Not making the selection doesn't mean the rider won't feature, and it all depends who goes when and how much energy is used, however the riders with teammates in the break are at an advantage, obviously.
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2.) Irizar and Jungels are there for TFR.
2.) Oliveira and Plaza Molina are there for LAM. 2.) Golas and Trentin for EQS. 2.) Fedrigo and Perichon for BSE. 2.) Hansen and De Gendt for LTS. 3.) EBH, Pauwels, Tekman for MTN. |
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Hold on...
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Sagan trying to psyche out these lot
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So, not absolute, but here is what I think about who is the likely rider for each team with teammates, without obviously seeing who is having good sensations as yet, and also the potential that the rider working for his teammate actually ends up in the race-winning move by chasing down an attack:
Golas works for Trentin. De Gendt for Hansen. Pauwels and Tekman for EBH. Irizar for Jungels, only because I think they'll want to blood the much younger rider. Maybe Plaza for Oliveira? Not sure. Fedrigo for Perichon, the latter rider is a x4 time stage winner at the Tour, and Perichon has been in nearly every break, so perhaps the passing of the torch. Sagan is having good sensations on that evidence -- strong descent and working on the front -- could be psychological. Even +90secs down on the start of the Manse climb he must be a dangerous proposition. |
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Peter "Raving" Sagan -- care of casemoney.
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This is early for these three...
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Sagan closes it down!
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Hanson & Haller off the front. Not sure what the latters climbing is like but Hanson will need a minute or so before the climb imo
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Hansen is a tough brawler -- hasn't fulfilled his potential in the pro ranks, only the two GT stage wins. Crazy to let him go, even this far out, we've seen that the old men are holding their strength quite well into their careers, Cummings won the other day of a similar age, however Hansen is likely to blow up on the Manse.
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GT debut for Haller. Austrian RR champion, beating nobody. Don't know much about him, although Hansen the better climber, but Haller's GC win in the Tour des Fjords in May looks interesting.
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They're both working hard and it's hot, so I think the advantage is still with the chasers, especially someone like Raving who is having a much easier ride, now.
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Haller a pure sprinter and lead out man
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Agree with CJ that they require 60 secs...
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Approaching the start of the Manse, expect there will be attacks in the chasers group, soon.
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. Hope you took him at a nice price MC.