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Stage 14 » Rodez › Mende (178.5k)
Another transition stage that moves basically from West to East through the middle of France as the race moves from the Pyrenees to the Alps. This one is fairly flat for most of it but there are 3 categorised climbs in the last 40km, including a crazy hard climb right at the end that will decide the day's winner.
The stage starts in yesterday's finish town of Rodez then moves South East. The opening to this stage is fairly lumpy, and includes the first of four climbs - the Cat 4 Cote de Pont de Salars. After 44km the peloton get to the Col de Vernhette which is where the climbing stops - for now. There is then 15km of descending to Vallee de Tam. Heere the peloton turn East and they then have a very flat 80 kilometre run including the intermeidate sprint at 78km.
Although the first 140km have little climbing the last 40km are so are deceptively hard. At 40km there is the Cat 2 climb of Cote de Sauveterre which is 9km @ 6%. Then with 10km to go there is a Cat 4 climb the Cote de Chabrits. Finally, with 5km to the peloton hit the Cat 2 Cote de la Croix Neuve. This is a very hard climb, being 3km @ 10.1%.
This is an extraordinarily hard climb and this should suit a very strong climber, possibly even by the GC boys. There is a final flat section of just over 1km on a airstrip after the last climb. This is likely to be expose to strong winds so any sole escapist with a small could have his work cut out to make it to the line. The finish town of Mende has been a stage finish on three previous occasions, most lately in 2010 when Joaquin Rodriguez took the honours.
Another transition stage that moves basically from West to East through the middle of France as the race moves from the Pyrenees to the Alps. This one is fairly flat for most of it but there are 3 categorised climbs in the last 40km, including a crazy hard climb right at the end that will decide the day's winner.
The stage starts in yesterday's finish town of Rodez then moves South East. The opening to this stage is fairly lumpy, and includes the first of four climbs - the Cat 4 Cote de Pont de Salars. After 44km the peloton get to the Col de Vernhette which is where the climbing stops - for now. There is then 15km of descending to Vallee de Tam. Heere the peloton turn East and they then have a very flat 80 kilometre run including the intermeidate sprint at 78km.
Although the first 140km have little climbing the last 40km are so are deceptively hard. At 40km there is the Cat 2 climb of Cote de Sauveterre which is 9km @ 6%. Then with 10km to go there is a Cat 4 climb the Cote de Chabrits. Finally, with 5km to the peloton hit the Cat 2 Cote de la Croix Neuve. This is a very hard climb, being 3km @ 10.1%.
This is an extraordinarily hard climb and this should suit a very strong climber, possibly even by the GC boys. There is a final flat section of just over 1km on a airstrip after the last climb. This is likely to be expose to strong winds so any sole escapist with a small could have his work cut out to make it to the line. The finish town of Mende has been a stage finish on three previous occasions, most lately in 2010 when Joaquin Rodriguez took the honours.
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Thrown a few Darts here as Usual, Nairo Quintana
Romain Bardet Pierre Rolland Bauke Mollema Tejay Van Garderen Warren Barguil G luck all |
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After yesterday's "dead roads" and high temperatures it would be reasonable to conclude that a kind of truce develops in the peloton today, and the long-range breakaway is permitted to fight for stage honours. However, in this professional age of WT cycling such things are more of a rarity than a regular occurrence, and it is unlikely that such a possibility will occur this time.
** Chris Froome This stage essentially represents the last opportunity for Froome to reassert his psychological dominance over his GC rivals prior to the Alps, and what better way to do so than by whirling his high cadence on a sharp finish where he knows precisely the amount of suffering which will be required to cross the line in 1st place. The only concern is the flat run-in once over the top of the final climb as he has found it difficult to pull a big gear after climbing, although if he is as explosive as he showed he was on stage 10, when winning, any gap he opens should hold. Has shortened from 12/1 at SP, into 10/1 presently, however his as short as 11/2. May be better if a long-range break is being permitted to build a nice gap. Impressive credentials. Hard to beat. Worthy of very close consideration. |
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Taken Dan Martin at 17.0 as my main bet so far. Also taken Yates&Yates at 40.0 and 85.0 and Vuillermoz at 32.0.
Really think the way Froome has ridden so far this finish could really suit him. Had a saver on him and may look to add some more. May also look to save on Valverde at a bigger price, especially if Froome looks in trouble at any stage. |
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I've done Rodriguez, Froome and Thomas. Rodrgiuez and Froome my main two bets here.
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*CRASH* Pinot & Gesink involved. Morabito abandons.
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The break have got this, I believe. 7mins with 100kms to go, and SKY closed the course earlier by temp riding on the front.
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bar a retirement after crashing Sagan has green in the bag already
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Well, a bit of mixed signals now, SKY on the front doing a fair clip, and it's stretching out with BMC and MOV in behind. Unless they were going fast because they're mighty hungry
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They swallowed-down their food and it's back to a fair clip. Not as easy to solve now.
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Okay, so the SKY-led peloton are keeping the pace honest in order to keep the break in their sights. The cat.2 on the horizon won't necessarily increase the gap as SKY are a solid unit, but they're not going to ride themselves into the ground I don't think, and so then who is going to come to the front to help? No one, I don't think. It has to be tipping in the favour of the break.
Just now, about an extra minute in the deficit bank of the breakaway, so confirming that it's going with the break -- haven't seen anyone come to take over from SKY, though. |
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Pinot, the legitimate favourite, had a couple of good wins this season, mainly in Switzerland. In Romandie he held off some good names when riding solo, and he had a very good win in Suisse on a brutally long stage up to the mountaintop finish. His favouritism is based on his previous form though, as in this race he hasn't really done much, in fact he has been missing on the two Murs and stage 10. He might be feeling good and should have any of these covered comfortably on the finale, but their are question marks about his form. For instance he might just give up when the questions are asked of him.
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Uran hasn't been far off on the climbing stages. 19th Mur de Huy, 15th Mur de Bretagne, and 28th on stage 10. He has already ridden the Giro and we are on the precipice of the third week, so there is a question mark about his strength.
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Bakelants will try his hand in the run up to the final climb -- he is an attacking rider -- he doesn't have the same strength or power on such a tough gradient. Had a good result yesterday to come 3rd, but this is much harder and he clearly has to attack this group earlier to build a gap.
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Bardet is riding well, he might have been a bit disappointing on the stage 12 climb when in the breakaway and beaten by Purito and Fuglsang, however I think the long tempo on the climb made him uncomfortable, where is here he might be better advantaged if he can get on the climb with the break. He is my selection at 6/1.
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KAT and MOV might have put a few riders into the SKY line for Purito and Valverde, the latter the favourite at SP, but no assistance and with this gap now nearly double, I think it's for the breakaway. It looks too difficult for the peloton.
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Think Simon Yates is the rider i would fancy from this front group on the final climb, the climb should suit him well, should be relatively fresh having had a few easy days where he has just been conserving energy, and oge will be keen for a win at some point.
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Yates has been ill all week, so I wonder if he's fully recovered.
Looks good for the breakaway at the moment, but if someone starts chasing soon you couldn't rule out the bunch. |
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No one interested to chase, SKY riding tempo and the peloton shedding riders -- this is with the break, I think.
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Yates a fair pick, I agree. Might be a touch bit too hard, but certainly not trying to resist him or discount his chances.
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Sagan has to attack prior to the climb, along with GVA, so probably will attract some money and shorten in price, but I'm not in favour of such a project.
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Who else?
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Ladagnous has been working for Pinot. Golas nothing special and working for Uran, I think. Grivko, no. Plaza, too old. Roy, an outside chance, but unlikely. A tad bit too hard for Pantano.
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Golas out by 20 secs, btw.
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Perichon, no.
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Koren, no. Koen de Kort, no. Gautier too tired, perhaps but a strong man ultimately unsuited by the climb into the finale.
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Cummings has some impressive climbing on him this year but he'll need a gap over the true climbers before the final climb.
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Cummings maybe too old, was riding for SKY and BMC and is now with a ProContinental team to see out his career.
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Castroviejo -- can climb, but more of a TT rider, obviously a domestique for MOV but will be out to impress. Can't have him as yet -- the Golas situation requires some attention.
Golas by 10 to Koren, by 203 to Green Jersey break. |
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Koren has Golas in his sights.
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10 secs -- 23 secs -->
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Koren and Golas together...
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Golas looks dead!
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Jungels is an interesting proposition, talented young rider that hasn't established his characteristics, but needs to get away prior to the finale, I think. Could be a danger.
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Uran looks good -- getting an easy ride.
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Speed coming on 7 kms out, Golas and Koren out in the lead...just!
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Bardet still my pick.
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These two would require at least 35 secs to the start of the final climb, probably more like a 45 secs.
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On it now...
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10% will kill Sagan but I'm not laying.
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