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Stage 10 » Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin (167k)
Bastille Day in the Pyrenees!
We move into a whole new phase of the Tour de France now with this stage that will allow us to see the climbers properly flex their muscles for the first time in the race. The Tarbes Budget Ibis was our base for 5 days last year when we did the Etape du Tour. Tarbes is a nice, tidy town, and in the same way that Gap is seen as the gateway to the Alps, Tarbes and the nearby Pau & Lourdes are very much gateway to the Pyrenees. From practically anywhere in Tarbes, you can see the beautiful and rather intimidating site of the Pyrenees dominating the Southern horizon. There's a lovely Italian in the very pleasant town centre called La Dolce Vite that do a good pizza and a mean bolognese, but I really don't recommend the Buffalo Grill. In fact my advice would be to give the whole chain of Buffalo Grills a very wide berth indeed. We have the first "real" climb of the Tour today with the HC summit finish at La Pierre-Saint-Martin.
This stage could catch some riders out. For a start, it comes after the rest day, secondly, the profile is pretty flat so the whole rhythm will be disturbed by the HC climb at the end. Lastly, as it is Bastille Day there will be extra incentive for the French riders. The stage is 167km long, but the first 143km are virtually flat. There are 3 Cat 4 climbs but they aren't going to cause any problems for anyone. The riders will head North West out of Tarbes towards Pau, which they skirt around to the North. They will then head South West towards Spain. The 3 Cat 4 climbs come at 66km, 90km and 134km. Once they are over the Cote du Montory they will quickly hit the lower slopes of the final climb.
La Pierre St Martin is a ski station on the Spanish/French border in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques region close to the town of Arrete, it has never been a stage finish before, although the race did go over the top from the other side in 2007. This area is well known for its caves, which are among the largest and most extensive in the world. Some of them are kilometres long, and one has a cavern called La Verna that has been measured at 250m wide and 194m high. It is said that you could fit 6 Notre Dame cathedrals in there, and a hot air balloon has even been flown in it! I doubt whether most of the peloton will be interested in having a look at the caves though. They will be too busy worrying about this climb. The climb measures 15.3km @ 7.4%. This is a serious test. This has been described as a harder climb than the Tourmalet, and possibly one of the hardest in the Pyrenees. The gradients start midly, but quickly ramp up and there are several consecutive kilometres with gradients over or well above 8%. Around 10km in the gradient eases slightly, but then gets serious again with the remainder of the climb varying between 5%-7%. The top is just after the Col du Soudet and the ski station right on the border with Spain, at 1610m. A difficult day following the rest day and with the change of rhythm that the climb will need. Someone is bound to lose time here. Bardet, Pinot, Barguil and co will be keen to take win on their national day, but this could be the day that we see Nairo Quintana stamp his mark on the race.
Bastille Day in the Pyrenees!
We move into a whole new phase of the Tour de France now with this stage that will allow us to see the climbers properly flex their muscles for the first time in the race. The Tarbes Budget Ibis was our base for 5 days last year when we did the Etape du Tour. Tarbes is a nice, tidy town, and in the same way that Gap is seen as the gateway to the Alps, Tarbes and the nearby Pau & Lourdes are very much gateway to the Pyrenees. From practically anywhere in Tarbes, you can see the beautiful and rather intimidating site of the Pyrenees dominating the Southern horizon. There's a lovely Italian in the very pleasant town centre called La Dolce Vite that do a good pizza and a mean bolognese, but I really don't recommend the Buffalo Grill. In fact my advice would be to give the whole chain of Buffalo Grills a very wide berth indeed. We have the first "real" climb of the Tour today with the HC summit finish at La Pierre-Saint-Martin.
This stage could catch some riders out. For a start, it comes after the rest day, secondly, the profile is pretty flat so the whole rhythm will be disturbed by the HC climb at the end. Lastly, as it is Bastille Day there will be extra incentive for the French riders. The stage is 167km long, but the first 143km are virtually flat. There are 3 Cat 4 climbs but they aren't going to cause any problems for anyone. The riders will head North West out of Tarbes towards Pau, which they skirt around to the North. They will then head South West towards Spain. The 3 Cat 4 climbs come at 66km, 90km and 134km. Once they are over the Cote du Montory they will quickly hit the lower slopes of the final climb.
La Pierre St Martin is a ski station on the Spanish/French border in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques region close to the town of Arrete, it has never been a stage finish before, although the race did go over the top from the other side in 2007. This area is well known for its caves, which are among the largest and most extensive in the world. Some of them are kilometres long, and one has a cavern called La Verna that has been measured at 250m wide and 194m high. It is said that you could fit 6 Notre Dame cathedrals in there, and a hot air balloon has even been flown in it! I doubt whether most of the peloton will be interested in having a look at the caves though. They will be too busy worrying about this climb. The climb measures 15.3km @ 7.4%. This is a serious test. This has been described as a harder climb than the Tourmalet, and possibly one of the hardest in the Pyrenees. The gradients start midly, but quickly ramp up and there are several consecutive kilometres with gradients over or well above 8%. Around 10km in the gradient eases slightly, but then gets serious again with the remainder of the climb varying between 5%-7%. The top is just after the Col du Soudet and the ski station right on the border with Spain, at 1610m. A difficult day following the rest day and with the change of rhythm that the climb will need. Someone is bound to lose time here. Bardet, Pinot, Barguil and co will be keen to take win on their national day, but this could be the day that we see Nairo Quintana stamp his mark on the race.
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Tommy V must be worth a back
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gallopin
peraud |
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Anyone else just throwing a few quid at random French riders and hoping for the best?
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If a decent large break goes away I think they could win the stage here. Obviously a lot of French riders will be trying to get in the break, though I think their record of winning on Bastille day has not been great the last few years.
As mentioned on the other thread I feel the Yates boys will be targeting kom now, and I expect one of them to try and get in the break tomorrow. Have backed Simon Yates 100/1 ew and Adam at 80/1 ew, also Rolland 40/1 ew. If it does all come back together then it will probably come down to a straight fight between Froome and Quintana, and the colombian has to be the value of the two tomorrow though 10/3 is still short enough. I was expecting him to be favourite for the stage, Froome has already said he will be happy to follow wheels here, so Quintana would seem a more likely winner tomorrow. May wait to back Quintana in running if his price drifts any?? |
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I wonder whether Bertie has been boxing clever so far. He's hardly expended an ounce of unecessary energy, and has been largely written off by everyone despite being 5th in GC. I've backed Bertie at 11/1 and TJGV at 33/1. These are small bets, I too think a break could make it tomorrow. Will need to be a good climber that wins it though - this thing at the end is a beast.
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Riis been on Danish TV saying he thinks BERTIE will peak in then,ATS week in the Alps. I think BERTIE will try and follow wheels over next three days. Quintana just has to gain time whenever he can.
Movistar have the Valverde/Quintana one-Two......Valverde attacks, who chases? |
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Looks a great opportunity for a breakaway imo .
I can't see the leaders doing anything but mark each other ,and a half decent climber way down on classification could get in a group with a big lead at the base of the climb and as we know the French always try to win today ......as they have not been capable of winning the actual event for 30 years. |
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They usualy try hard, the problem is they almost ever fall to short...
My bets for today hoping for a big breakaway: Sepulveda @320 Riblon @150 Gaultier @250 Machado @1000 Romain Sicard @450 Thomas De Gendt @600 Bartosz Huzarski @1000 Roy @550 All small stakes. Other chance is for good climbers but that dont fight for GC to go in the beggining of the climb: Arredondo @75 Gesink @270 Uran @160 Kruijswijk @140 GL ALL |
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How often do we see that on the first real mountain stage, the GC contenders do nothing but mark each other? I would suggest that hardly ever do we see that happen, the GC contenders nearly always have a look at each other with a small dig or two, or a shot for the line, or even we witness that some fireworks go off.
Froome not only has the lead, but he also has the psychological advantage over his rivals, and I just don't believe he'll sit and follow wheels throughout the entire final climb up to the mountaintop finish. Quintana is the one that has to attack and I think he will, this climb suits him, particularly the steep sections some 6 kms from the finish, and I think he must throw down an attack at that point and bury himself for the line. Even if Froome answers and goes with him, Quintana has to show that he will be a force in the mountains and sew a seed of doubt in Froome's mind by pressing the pace and stretching him. If Quintana gives Froome a tough ride than he'll suggest that he can grind Froome down with such hard riding, stage after stage, that eventually he might show enough cracks for Quintana to exploit and gain a chunk of time on a suitable stage in the mountains. Quintana recovers better coming from altitude, so the onus is on him to give Froome and his GC rivals the toughest ride possible. Anything less, and he shuts himself away from the top step of the podium because he begins to run out of opportunities, and Froome will improve as he has improvement on the back of his highly impressive Criterium Dauphine ride. Having said that, Quintana has to be better than his 2nd place finish on debut in 2013. He has to be destructive with his attacks and show that he can turn himself inside-out for no return. Only by riding like it's the last stage, can he regain the psychological advantage and press his claims for the win, even being this far back. As I stated on the main thread, I though Quintana would be about 90 secs back by this stage, so to be back 119 secs makes his task of winning much more difficult, but depending on how he handles himself it may not be impossible. Quintana is the one rider who can regain such time, but he has to be better than the Quintana we saw in 2013. When two people are fighting it's usually the third person that profits, and the one rider who just has to loiter is Contador. His best tactic is patience and sensing his opportunity to strike, a wily way of riding which fits his character. I still think he is in this race and is probably the best value in the GC winner market. Assessing the chances of the long-range breakaway IR, however I have backed Froome on here at ante-post for a trade as he is likely to trade shorter on or approaching the final climb. Good luck to all, SP |
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richard virenque it is then
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bah, only 2 mens on the breakaway and none is strong enough to that last climb
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Well, not 2 cilbers, they dont give them 15min, the stage isnt that long or hard before the last climb. I reckon they should need at least 8min to hold on that climb
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laying fedrigo at 3,15 for the moment
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Valverde
Rafa Majka Rolland Backed those three |
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Barguil down and not looking good.
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Fedrigo came to 3,15 that is a pure offer, just lay everything under 5 ffs
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Barguil's entire family have joined the Tour, they're at the finish today and they're camping as they go, so he would've needed a broken leg to have retired, I think -- great stuff from the young Frenchman to carry on and solo back into the convoy of cars -- now back in the peloton.
Fedrigo is a four time stage winner in the Tour, and he is a very smart rider who has had the majority of those wins in this area, so he will be backing himself, and it might be a mistake to lay him recklessly. Having said that, I think this climb is too tough for him and the pace of the peloton will be ramped up toward the base of the final climb, closing the gap quickly, and then once Fedrigo hits the steep sections he will crack and just go into survival mode. The peloton have certainly not switched off here, although the gap is now slightly in the break's favour. In conclusion; I think Fedrigo will go clear by himself at some point, but be caught by the chasers. |
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FDJ chasing. Wouldn't have thought this climb suited Pinot.
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I suppose nobody is going to chase Pinot, so if he attacks from the bottom and none of the GC follow you could have a little group of climbers well down the GC moving away.
Not sure it would be my choice of move though as they are unlikely to stay away if the GC riders go at it. |
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Suisse stage 5 win looks similar for Pinot, here.
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Popped out for a cuppa and a midnight snack and this break is Kaput!
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The other thing in Pinot's favour should he try his hand early, is that if it turns into a pissing contest between the GC men, he gets left alone.
This climb pretty-much starts at km 20 on account of a long false-flat... |
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Point taken about Suisse. Not really much competition there though.
Perhaps it's just me who doesn't fancy him on the steep stuff. |
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Fedrigo made my day, just layed him with everything i have
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I don't fancy him here either though CJ, he has been suffering from bronchitis over the last few days, and whilst I hope he can excite the market with an attack, I'll be laying him if he presents within the right range. Well done EB.
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That destruction to the peloton is just tempo riding -- we're going to get some fireworks here definitely!
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Rui Costa still sick or saving himself for tomorrow?
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Maybe Gap?
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Bit early for Gap. Tomorrow suits him if the break is allowed to go.
Garmin, Kaput. |
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MOV having confidence in Quintana here, working hard on the front, destroying the peloton. If this is an armchair for Froome it might be an uncomfortable one.
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Pinot, Bardet gone.
Movistar splitting this up SKYtrain style. |
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My boy Gesink!
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Spirit of 2011 by Gesink!
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Nibali kaput
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No French rider left in the peloton...
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There's a Europcar in there or is it my eyes? Presumably Rolland.
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Laid Gesink -- Valls came across too easily and he is a classy little climber.
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One of the Yates still in there by the look of it.
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