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Stage 7 » Livarot › Fougères (190.5k)
This is a fairly straightforward looking stage that should end in a bunch sprint.
Map
The start town is Livarot in the Basse-Normandie region, a very small town of only 2,000 inhabitants, Livarot is famous for its eponymous cheese and also its cider. Today's stage to Fougères is 190km long but the only categorised climb is the Cat 4 cote de Canapville, which comes only 12.5km into the stage. The rest of the stage is by no means completely flat, it has many uncategorised lumps and bumps but nothing that should unduly trouble the sprinters. Normally the break might have a chance today as the teams will be concentrating on Mur de Bretagne on Saturday and the TTT on Sunday. However, the sprint teams are very strong here and they will be acutely aware that this represents the last chance for a stage win until Stage 15 and possibly Stage 21.
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Last kms
The finish is in Fougères, a small town on the border of Britanny, Normandy and Maine that is a popular tourist destination due to its historical quarters and castle. The last few kms are relatively uncomplicated. There are four roundabouts in the last 4000km, including a left turn in the one at 4000km and a right turn just after the flamme rouge. The finish line is on the Boulevard des Desportes and is about 90m in length, although the last real bend is the one just after the flame rouge so the pace will be very high as they turn onto the home straight. The last 500m are not completely flat either, they have a ramp of about 3-3.5%. If he is a serious contender for the Green jersey then Andre Greipel will be keen to win today.
This is a fairly straightforward looking stage that should end in a bunch sprint.
Map
The start town is Livarot in the Basse-Normandie region, a very small town of only 2,000 inhabitants, Livarot is famous for its eponymous cheese and also its cider. Today's stage to Fougères is 190km long but the only categorised climb is the Cat 4 cote de Canapville, which comes only 12.5km into the stage. The rest of the stage is by no means completely flat, it has many uncategorised lumps and bumps but nothing that should unduly trouble the sprinters. Normally the break might have a chance today as the teams will be concentrating on Mur de Bretagne on Saturday and the TTT on Sunday. However, the sprint teams are very strong here and they will be acutely aware that this represents the last chance for a stage win until Stage 15 and possibly Stage 21.
Profile
Last kms
The finish is in Fougères, a small town on the border of Britanny, Normandy and Maine that is a popular tourist destination due to its historical quarters and castle. The last few kms are relatively uncomplicated. There are four roundabouts in the last 4000km, including a left turn in the one at 4000km and a right turn just after the flamme rouge. The finish line is on the Boulevard des Desportes and is about 90m in length, although the last real bend is the one just after the flame rouge so the pace will be very high as they turn onto the home straight. The last 500m are not completely flat either, they have a ramp of about 3-3.5%. If he is a serious contender for the Green jersey then Andre Greipel will be keen to win today.
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Actual Profile
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I think 7/1 is very fair on Kristoff today.
I was impressed with him other day. Swooped and looped the field and tried to lead out the sprint into a headwind and gunned down late on. I think Kristoff is coming to the boil nicely. The a gorilla's train is decimated while SAGAN doesn't like winning. Cav could easily bounce back here and he always loves to shut everyone up when he's written off. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Cav at all P.s when are Garmin going to try something? They are been very quiet |
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Degenkolb is the man for me. The slight rise at the end favours him and I think his train is better than anyone's. Sagan and Kristoff are going to have to work for themselves in the finale and both Cav & Greipel have big holes in their lead out trains after the crashes so far. I've also had a tickle on Demare at 40/1. I've been waiting for him to show what he can do for 18 months and seen green shoots finally. He's another that won't get a lot of help but is used to that, the finale suits so if he can time his run he could get a podium here.
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Cav is now att the odds he should have been in the last sprint, so i wont touch him.
Had a bit of Demare just for fun |
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When does the stage start?
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I thought Cav's sprint the other day was actually not too bad. At first I thought he was disappointing but after watching it a few times I think he wins it if he keeps Renshaw's wheel. He had to start his sprint out of necessity (ditto Kristoff) a lot earlier than Greipel and Sagan. I'll be interested to see what he can do today with a less than 100% sprint train and on a finish that is probably more suited to some of his rivals.
This is a good stage for Kristoff, hopefully his lead-out doesn't crash today. Degenkolb should like the uphill finish and has a full team at his disposal. Kristoff and Degenkolb for me at decent odds. 139km remaining |
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don't understand why the polka dot doesn't go back into the peloton?
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TV coverage in the jersey. Should be a nice easy day wherever you are today, although that's not something that's happened this year.
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I think he'd better get into the break again tomorrow, if he doesn't take the cat4 point he might lose the jersey at the stage finish
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Think he's safe. Can't see J-Rod picking up the stage win tomorrow.
I bet he'll try and get in the break again though. |
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re Cav's sprint the other day. I don't think he lost Renshaw's wheel, which is what I'd originally thought. I think he makes the conscious decision to leave Renshaw and try and get on Greipel's wheel, who has come up on the right hand side of the Etixx train. He can't get on Greipel's wheel cos Sagan is already on it. From about 700m-500m out, Cav and Sagan battle to try and get on Greipel's wheel. In the end, realising he can't get on Greipel, he moves left and tries to find another wheel to get on. He briefly gets on to SepVanmarcke's wheel but then finds himself at the front far too early and forced to open up the sprint far too early yet again. This allows Greipel to actually get onto his wheel, the opposite of what he wanted. Sagan who has done a brilliant job of following Greipel's burst, comes through very fast but can't actually get around Greipel until after the line. Not a disaster for Cav, his speed is not what it was but it is actually his ruthless streak that enables him to get onto the correct wheel that he needs to refind. Personally I have no doubt that he will do at some stage. Maybe today.
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He better get it right quickly, wont have many more chances.
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The Gorilla looks in dominating form to me. He proved he doesn't need his trusty lead-out man in Henderson, and he is the legitimate short-priced favourite. He is my saver. I still think the Manx Missile looks a little light, perhaps up put to 3 kgs but probably 2 kgs, but I haven't found anything to confirm that as yet. Nevertheless, on this finish I just don't see him suddenly putting everything together to win against a dominating Greipel, an improving Kristoff, and three other possible challengers. Yes, he has done that in the past when people have written him off as Clay suggests, however he looks like he is way off his best here and I am willing to discount his chances. Demare may surprise, but he is difficult to get right. Degenkolb gets his best chance on this finish, but still looks like he will require luck. Kristoff is a very competitive price and appears like he can strike at any moment, so he is my pick. EBH at juicy odds.
Silly stuff from the Tekman, today. |
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No mention of Sagan, on purpose!
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CAV
CAV CAV  |
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Class. 4.3 layers burnt.
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Great win by Cavendish
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Cav managed to beat Sagan onto Greipel's wheel with a bit of argy bargy, which was what he failed to do last time.
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This time it was the Gorilla who went too early, and the Manx was the one that followed with the inside opening up for him, however there were some tired legs out there today.
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so pleased for Cav today, he is always at his best and most determined when he is being written off, plus he would have been keen to take the win for Tony Martin. Lets hope he can take another couple of stages this year.
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Normality resumed. Not sure it helps from a betting point of view as that's the end of the sprints for the time being.
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Perfect from Cav. Greipel has been using Cav as his final lead out man. Good to see Cav turn tables.
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Cav! Still got it.
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