Cycling
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Stage 6 » Abbeville › Le Havre (191.5k)
Map
Today's stage has the potential for echelons again, and has a huge number of little climbs and will not be much fun for anyone excpt the Northern Classics specialists. Sound familair? his stage also has a kick in the tail with a fast run-in to a last ramp that is 850m @ 7%. I have my own experience of a fast run into Le Havre. After doing the Etape du Tour in the Pyrenees last year we stayed on and watched a couple of stages (we were on top of the HC Port de Bales cheering Mick Rogers on when he won his stage last year) then stayed in Tours on the way back to Le Havre to get the ferry. We overslept after a night on the ale in Tours, and by the time we got out of the hotel and in the car we had left ourselves 2 hours 20 to do the 300km+ back to Le Havre for the ferry. We averaged about 150kmph including toll roads and traffic lights in Le Havre and made the ferry with seconds to spare.
Profile
The stage starts in Abbeville, a town on The Somme, 20km from it's mouth in the English channel. Abbeville is the capital of the maritime region of Picardie. The peloton run parallel to the coast to start with, in a South-Westerly direction, before turning and heading West to Dieppe. The are two uncategorised lumps before Dieppe which should ensure a breakaway gets away early, but with the potential for crosswinds it is unlikely that a break will succeed today. After Dieppe, the stage follows the coastal road pretty much all the way to Le Havre, it is extremely likely that there will be strong winds. There are two Cat 4 climbs just after Dieppe, the Cote du Dieppe and the Cote du Pourville-sur-Mer. The race does veer away from the coast at 100km when they get to St-Valery-en-Caux, but it is back on the coastal road fairly shortly. However, these changes of direction should ensure the peloton is nervous and positioning near the front will be desirable for anyone that has GC or stage aspirations.
Last kms
Just after the town of Fécamp, a fishing town on the mouth of the Valmont River, we have the intermediate sprint. At this stage there is only 45km to go. There is the Cat 4 Cote du Tilleul and then we are in the run-in to Le Havre. The final climb is 850m at 7%. The steepest ramps are at the start and it flattens out towards the end. This is just a bit too sharp and long for any of the out-and-out sprinters. Le Havre has been a finish town 10 times, the last in 1995 when the stage was taken by Mario Cippolini. You have to think this is Peter Sagan's big chance to win. I thought he would be favourite anyway but he looked very fast and strong in Amiens on Wednesday and the ramp at the end suits him down to the ground.
Map
Today's stage has the potential for echelons again, and has a huge number of little climbs and will not be much fun for anyone excpt the Northern Classics specialists. Sound familair? his stage also has a kick in the tail with a fast run-in to a last ramp that is 850m @ 7%. I have my own experience of a fast run into Le Havre. After doing the Etape du Tour in the Pyrenees last year we stayed on and watched a couple of stages (we were on top of the HC Port de Bales cheering Mick Rogers on when he won his stage last year) then stayed in Tours on the way back to Le Havre to get the ferry. We overslept after a night on the ale in Tours, and by the time we got out of the hotel and in the car we had left ourselves 2 hours 20 to do the 300km+ back to Le Havre for the ferry. We averaged about 150kmph including toll roads and traffic lights in Le Havre and made the ferry with seconds to spare.
Profile
The stage starts in Abbeville, a town on The Somme, 20km from it's mouth in the English channel. Abbeville is the capital of the maritime region of Picardie. The peloton run parallel to the coast to start with, in a South-Westerly direction, before turning and heading West to Dieppe. The are two uncategorised lumps before Dieppe which should ensure a breakaway gets away early, but with the potential for crosswinds it is unlikely that a break will succeed today. After Dieppe, the stage follows the coastal road pretty much all the way to Le Havre, it is extremely likely that there will be strong winds. There are two Cat 4 climbs just after Dieppe, the Cote du Dieppe and the Cote du Pourville-sur-Mer. The race does veer away from the coast at 100km when they get to St-Valery-en-Caux, but it is back on the coastal road fairly shortly. However, these changes of direction should ensure the peloton is nervous and positioning near the front will be desirable for anyone that has GC or stage aspirations.
Last kms
Just after the town of Fécamp, a fishing town on the mouth of the Valmont River, we have the intermediate sprint. At this stage there is only 45km to go. There is the Cat 4 Cote du Tilleul and then we are in the run-in to Le Havre. The final climb is 850m at 7%. The steepest ramps are at the start and it flattens out towards the end. This is just a bit too sharp and long for any of the out-and-out sprinters. Le Havre has been a finish town 10 times, the last in 1995 when the stage was taken by Mario Cippolini. You have to think this is Peter Sagan's big chance to win. I thought he would be favourite anyway but he looked very fast and strong in Amiens on Wednesday and the ramp at the end suits him down to the ground.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 91
|
By:
Actual Last Kms
 |
|
By:
Anyone backing Sagan at 7-4 wants to give up gambling. The guy finds more and more ways in which to lose races
|
|
By:
Yeah, I won't be.
|
|
By:
Has Albasini withdrawn ? Michael Albasini 1000 £3.00 £2,997.00
|
|
By:
Stage 6 betting that is
 |
|
By:
Albasini will DNS tommorow with fractured arm. OGE pretty screwed
|
|
By:
Thx Virt was wondering what was going on
 |
|
By:
OGE a massive lay against pretty much anyone in the TTT match bets when they go up. Mine for tomorrow are Cimolai 33/1, Arredondo 100/1 & Demare 40/1. All 4 places.
|
|
By:
This would of been my biggest bet of the tour for sure. OGE and Matthews would of been near impossible to hold out here. Gotta feel for them as I think they would of been targeting this stage and they would of been a good chance on stages 8,13 and in the TTT as well.
|
|
By:
This looks like a perfect finish for Sagan. My only doubt is: Who will chase? Tinkoff certainly wont... At those odds i cant back Sagan, and i have a meeting at 3pm so im out of this stage.
GL to all |
|
By:
** GVA Had no business being involved in the stage 2 finale with the outright sprinters, yet there he was claiming a 6th place finish. Same again on yesterday's stage 5, and there he was again claiming a 10th place finish. Was one of the first to attack on the Mur de Huy of stage 3 and battled-on doggedly for a respectable 15th place. On stage 4, over the cobbles, he claimed a 4th place finish which might have been the podium if not for the Panzerwagon clearing out. BMC are riding forwardly so he should be in position for a strong tilt at this. Opened as a 10/1 shot with PP, but is now 11/1 (various). Bold showing expected. Makes appeal. Worthy of very close consideration.
* Tony Gallopin Showed his impressive characteristics and gave some good signs he is close to claiming his second career Tour stage, when on the Mur de Huy stage 3 he was right amongst the chances, to ultimately finish impressively in 5th place. Confirmed his good form on the next cobbles stage 4 when finishing in 8th place. Is ideally suited by this type of uphill finish. LTS are firing with the Gorilla already claiming two stage wins and holding the Green Jersey, so expect he'll get good support for this. 14/1 at SP, but has drifted across the boards and is now 16/1 (various). Might drift out to 19/1 or be available even better for the straight out on here. Coming into this at the right time. Treat warily. 1/8* Chris Froome Has been riding forwardly on most stages, for instance was 7th on sprint stage 2, and he may find himself amongst a splintering arrowhead here. 100/1 at SP with PP, he has attracted a lot of interest and is now as low 40/1 but is available at 80/1 (various). Sound E/W prospects. Take on trust. *Banker* Peter Sagan Two 2nd place finishes and a 3rd on unfavourable ground. Now gets his best chance for a stage win on a finish which suits his characteristics perfectly. Hasn't had a Tour stage win since 2013, so he is overdue. Short-priced favourite throughout. Holds a commanding presence in the peloton. The one to beat. Go close. Good luck to all, SP |
|
By:
Good point EB, but as mc points out in the preview we'll have crosswinds again with the possibility of echelons. So Tinkoff along with other GC teams will be at the front anyway, keeping the pace high in an attempt to not be caught out. It does look like the wind has died down a bit though and no rain is forecast which would increase the chance of a breakaway win.
|
|
By:
Top preview mc. Good read.
I think a race like the Amstel Gold Race might be a good indicator for a stage like this. Although not as hard as the AGR and therefore possibly less selective, the finishing hill is similar to the Cauberg. Amstel Gold Race 2015 Results POL 1 KWIATKOWSKI, Michal (ETIXX - QUICK STEP) 6:31:49 ESP 2 VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) AUS 3 MATTHEWS, Michael (ORICA GreenEDGE) POR 4 FARIA DA COSTA, Rui Alberto (LAMPRE - MERIDA) BEL 5 VAN AVERMAET, Greg (BMC RACING) FRA 6 GALLOPIN, Tony (LOTTO SOUDAL) FRA 7 ALAPHILIPPE, Julian (ETIXX - QUICK STEP) ITA 8 GASPAROTTO, Enrico (WANTY - GROUPE GOBERT) POL 9 PATERSKI, Maciej (CCC SPRANDI POLKOWICE) BEL 10 GILBERT, Philippe (BMC RACING) I'm thinking this might be for a Gallopin, Van Avertmaet, Valverde, Kwiatkowski type puncheur rider. Although this isn't as hard as AGR and maybe Degenkolb, Kristoff and Sagan can hold on up that final hill. Other sprinters who would like the looks of this stage would be EBH, Coquard and Cimolai. Gallopin and GVA will definitely force the issue on the climb, if Sagan can follow them they might sit up and other riders might get back on. We could even get a little dig from Froome or another GC contender. You could be all over this sp. |
|
By:
I'm not sure if this is hard enough to get rid of the big sprinters? Could the Cav's and Griepel's of this world make it to the top of the climb and then smash it on the flat finish? Hard enough for Kristoff but not Degenkolb? Not sure at all.
On that note and the fact that it's a coastal road with a split highly likely if we get the right wind it's a no bet for me. |
|
By:
Very tricky. After a hard few stages and with some nice weather today the peleton might be happy to let a break go and fight for the win.
|
|
By:
Cav and Greipel have no chance, even if they make it they'll be too stuffed to beat Sagan in a sprint. Kristoff and Degenkolb have some chance but it depends on how hard it is raced, I think riders like Gallopin and GVA aren't gonna hang around for a sprint.
|
|
By:
A decent break could stay away because there is the question of who is going to chase simply to get trounced by Sagan (whose team probably won't chase). Giant or MTN-Q would maybe be justified because they don't have many opportunities.
|
|
By:
Anyone got a spare 10 million to lay that bet on Huzarski ? (10k @ 1000)
|
|
By:
Three in the break. Van Bilsen with the biggest kick if it stays away, but unlikely.
|
|
By:
Impossible. i hope they get +10min to lay them at decent odds
|
|
By:
They've got 11.30 at the moment and look like going out further. Tekla the closest at 26 mins back
|
|
By:
The market is definitely showing respect for Degenkolb's ability on uphill finishes. He has won plenty of stages on such finishes over the last few seasons at the Giro and especially the Vuelta, his win at the Hatta dam(stage3) in the Dubai Tour at the start of the year was an indication of what he can do on steep finishes. Not so sure myself.
Also not sure about Sagan, wouldn't be surprised though if he won with enough gap to do a wheelie across the line. You certainly would want to see Sagan scoring points today if you have him for the green jersey. I'm thinking more like riders who did well on stage 3 might go well here like Dan Martin, Gallopin, Vuillermoz, Yates. Purito could even look for bonus seconds in which case the sprinters would struggle to keep up. Valverde with his spring form would be very dangerous on a finish like this and same with Kwiatkowski with his spring form from last year. |
|
By:
Not bad, layed all around 30-40 odds
|
|
By:
gap 7 mins now
|
|
By:
Alejandro Valverde
Michael Albasini 1000 £3.01 £3,006.99 Thought the price was a bit Big  Michal Kwiatkowski Bauke Mollema Vincenzo Nibali Valverdie main bet other 3 ew small g l all |
|
By:
and they keep matching my lays on the breakaway at odds under 100... funny stuff
|
|
By:
Apparently the word is that the Road Book is a little deceiving about the finale, here. The start of the climb begins about 1.3 kms and it supposedly flattens right out with 500 m to go. I therefore think that it really suits Sagan down to the ground, but Degenkolb backers should still feel confident about their man after his superb showing on the climbs in Flanders of this year. I believe I remember that MC stated something along the lines that Degenkolb is more than just a sprinter after observing him going over the Paterburg with aplomb, and I agreed with that -- he should make it over the climb here I think, however Sagan is my banker and I won't be including Degenkolb, but certainly not laying him. If the final 500 m is as flat as is being suggested by a man on the ground in France than the puncheurs must lose their advantage against someone like Sagan and even Degenkolb, and therefore this finish moves away from being AGR as is being suggested by nugget, and becomes a little easier as the lactic acid builds in the legs of the riders who can cope with it better.
Tekman in this break is after KOM points, gap lost about 2 mins in the last fe kms = breakaway does not survive to the end. |
|
By:
That's 2/2 for Tekman with one to go -- he'll be in the Polkadot Jersey by the end of today, I believe.
|
|
By:
Excuse me World Champion, perchance you might take me back to the peloton?
|
|
By:
This gap has slightly moved in the advantage of the breakaway, but as they hit the coast now there's some wind which will slow their progress and narrow the gap as the peloton makes ground on them. Break dies, I still believe.
|
|
By:
There is actually a longer flat after the final climb (cauberg) in AGR than this stage. The difference is that AGR is alot longer and has more climbing.
|
|
By:
AGR is also ridden much harder than what this stage has been so far. I see your point though and the puncheurs may indeed be losing their advantage over the versatile sprinter types.
|
|
By:
Strange seeing the world champion and classics winner doing so much donkey work. I would of thought Etixx have plenty of riders that could fill that role. They seem to be all over the shop at this tour and are probably looking to save face by trying to keep Tony Martin(who has delivered) in yellow for as long as possible.
|
|
By:
I remember that was the worry for the puncheurs in having Bling amongst them on the flat after the Cauberg -- he didn't take advantage of his characteristics when the race turned in his favour on the flat (the climb soured his legs) but someone like Sagan or Degenkolb are going to make short work against the puncheurs on a short flat kick to the line as on offer here after what is an easier climb with less chance of filling legs with lactic acid to the maximum -- that is if they're there to contend.
|
|
By:
I think the peloton will want to bring this break back by the Sprint so that the Gorilla can attempt to go for full Intermediate points. We'll see.
|
|
By:
Bling was the only one who could follow Gilbert's attack on the cauberg (Valverde bridged across shortly after), if he had of stayed in the group he would of won easy. It was a big effort for Valverde and Bling to hold on for 2nd and 3rd whereas Gilbert finished 10th. I see what you're saying about Sagan and Degenkolb though, I guess that's why they're the top 2 in the market. That's why the onus is on riders like Gallopin and GVA to put them under pressure on the final climb. Without explosive riders like Gilbert, Gerrans, inform Kwiat and Matthews there Sagan will find it a lot easier to follow. Possibly too much flat after the climb for the likes of Rodriguez and Valverde do anything other than follow wheels. Interested to see if Dan Martin will try something or if Froome will try to take some more time.
|
|
By:
This pace is too little too late for full Intermediate points for the sprinters interested in the Green Jersey.
|
|
By:
In other news you can put caffeine on you hair now
|
|
By:
Admittedly I overlooked Degenkolb for this initially, then I remembered sharing the same thoughts as MC had about him in Flanders and I realized that him being on the second line of betting was valid. Looks like he has some good sensations after that Intermediate, but I cannot cover him.
You've advanced a good question about the tactics for the finale -- positioning is going to be key -- and the two favourites are in the advantage as all they have to do is get into a forward position to take a prominent sit on the climb, and go over the top of the leaders once on the flat, to win. More I think about this, the more it looks like a Sagan win -- only because he is more likely to move up on the climb if he wants. |