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Stage 5 » Arras › Amiens (189.5k)
Today's stage is a flat stage, and it is accordingly one of the allocated 6 "Super Sprint" stages. There are no categorised climbs at all. Although the sprinters will see this as a huge opportunity and the GC guys might think this is a bit of a day off, everyone will have to be on their guard today. This is a pretty unprotected area, with few trees and this could mean the peloton will again be vulnerable to crosswinds in several stretches. There are a number of direction changes today, and we go through a number of small towns. One lapse in concentration could spell disaster.
Map
We start today's stage in Arras, in the Pas de Calais region of France. And indeed, Arras is just down the E15 from Calais and near yesterday's finish town of Cambrai. Arras is a historic town formed by the Gauls in the Iron Age on the banks of the Scarpe river. The city is well known for its culture, architecture and history and its bell tower and town hall are a UNESCO World Heritage site. The peloton make their way to Amiens, which is South West of Arras, but they will meander around all over the place on the way there.
Profile
From Arras we start of heading away from Amiens, in a North Westerly direction before turning East then South to Neuville-Saint-Vaast. They then head further East, then back South and through a series of small towns as the road bends back South before crossing the Somme, and following it West. At Herbecourt the peloton turn back to the North and back over the Somme. At Combles they turn West again and towards Amiens. We still don't head straight there though, turning South again heading through Albert, crossing the river again and making several further changes of direction before we arrive in the finish town.
Last kms in Amiens
Amiens is another another historic Northern French town, documents in the Middle Ages and Roman times. It has also been much fought over, from barbarian times through to World War I and II. Amiens Cathedral dates from c13th and is a World Heritage site. Jules Verne lived in Amiens in the late c19th. Amiens is also famous for it's food, namely its macarons, duck pate pastry and its puff pastry tart with leeks and cream. The finish should be fast, as it is fairly uncomplicated. There are a handful of roundabouts between 6km and 4km before a left hand turn just after 2500km. The trains will cross the Somme for the final time just before the Flamme Rouge on Boulevard d'Alsace Lorraine. There is a final right hand turn then the home straight is on Boulevard de Belfort, and is 480m long, 7m wide and very slightly downhill. Amiens has been a finish stage 9 times before, most recently when Mario Cipollini won stage 5 in 1999, the second of his 4 consecutive stage wins.
Making predictions is very difficult on a stage like this. We could see echelons form, we could see a break stay out or a late attack succeed. Or we could see a group sprint. If so then Mark Cavendish could again add to his tally of Tour stage wins as he tries to chase down Merckx.
Today's stage is a flat stage, and it is accordingly one of the allocated 6 "Super Sprint" stages. There are no categorised climbs at all. Although the sprinters will see this as a huge opportunity and the GC guys might think this is a bit of a day off, everyone will have to be on their guard today. This is a pretty unprotected area, with few trees and this could mean the peloton will again be vulnerable to crosswinds in several stretches. There are a number of direction changes today, and we go through a number of small towns. One lapse in concentration could spell disaster.
Map
We start today's stage in Arras, in the Pas de Calais region of France. And indeed, Arras is just down the E15 from Calais and near yesterday's finish town of Cambrai. Arras is a historic town formed by the Gauls in the Iron Age on the banks of the Scarpe river. The city is well known for its culture, architecture and history and its bell tower and town hall are a UNESCO World Heritage site. The peloton make their way to Amiens, which is South West of Arras, but they will meander around all over the place on the way there.
Profile
From Arras we start of heading away from Amiens, in a North Westerly direction before turning East then South to Neuville-Saint-Vaast. They then head further East, then back South and through a series of small towns as the road bends back South before crossing the Somme, and following it West. At Herbecourt the peloton turn back to the North and back over the Somme. At Combles they turn West again and towards Amiens. We still don't head straight there though, turning South again heading through Albert, crossing the river again and making several further changes of direction before we arrive in the finish town.
Last kms in Amiens
Amiens is another another historic Northern French town, documents in the Middle Ages and Roman times. It has also been much fought over, from barbarian times through to World War I and II. Amiens Cathedral dates from c13th and is a World Heritage site. Jules Verne lived in Amiens in the late c19th. Amiens is also famous for it's food, namely its macarons, duck pate pastry and its puff pastry tart with leeks and cream. The finish should be fast, as it is fairly uncomplicated. There are a handful of roundabouts between 6km and 4km before a left hand turn just after 2500km. The trains will cross the Somme for the final time just before the Flamme Rouge on Boulevard d'Alsace Lorraine. There is a final right hand turn then the home straight is on Boulevard de Belfort, and is 480m long, 7m wide and very slightly downhill. Amiens has been a finish stage 9 times before, most recently when Mario Cipollini won stage 5 in 1999, the second of his 4 consecutive stage wins.
Making predictions is very difficult on a stage like this. We could see echelons form, we could see a break stay out or a late attack succeed. Or we could see a group sprint. If so then Mark Cavendish could again add to his tally of Tour stage wins as he tries to chase down Merckx.
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Replies: 67
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Great Stuff MC thanks for doing the stages
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You're all welcome hermanos. I get a lot of out of the increased trade & discussion that is generated on these freds. There are some smart cookies on here, and as every day is a school day, I pick up little gems from you lot all the time.
Dangerous times tomorrow for the peloton. After several stages where they have been tested mentally and physically, there is a danger that they will see the profile, "switch off" & that could be curtains. |
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I better get on 6-10. Got a busy few days and they normally take a day or two to compile.
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Few riders Small at prices ew Obviously looking for a breakaway to stay away
Albasini Kwiatoswki Gallopin and tony again Sagan to win Also Looks like sprinters will be the outcome but not for me getting involved at cramp odds ,G luck to all and as ever safe and sound the call of the day .. |
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Le Tour de Crosswind continues, GC contenders beware. We could be echelons.
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or we could see echelons
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Kristoff was heavily backed to win Stage 2.....missed the split.......well backed to win Stage 4...,,,punctured and again missed the break.....yet he is largely ignored today......he was completely dominant in the spring. I can see a classic Luca lead out with Kristoff kicking with 300 to go and seeing if anyone has legs to come by him.
Spartacus wasn't beaten by much in Stage 2 sprint yet Kristoff is a far better sprinter. He is huge value today |
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I have backed Gallopin 300/1 & GVA 200/1 for the stage. I've backed both to be in yellow at 100/1. I've also done £2 Hail Marys on Timmer (1000), Brandle (750), Fedrigo (1000) and Cummings (500) although I actually think the break staying away is incredibly unlikely as the potential for crosswinds will drive the pace in the peloton. There's no way I'd be backing sprinters at short prices today. Good luck all.
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With wind and rain in the mix, its just crazy that Cav is so low. Im not backing any of the sprinters at low odds, its such an unpredictable stage...
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There's a consensus for Gallopin and I want to start with him at ante-post, but not sure this is his kind of stage necessarily and will resist his chances. Even though I believe the Manx Missile is the likely winner, I'm laying him at ante-post for a small trade as he is by far too short with possible echelons forming and every man and his dog wanting to get into the break. Think he might get out to 2/1 or thereabouts and even if he doesn't he's not going to shorten significantly until much closer to the finish -- not much risk for a fair return.
Good luck to all, SP |
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Bunch kick or a bunch kick from a reduced group if the wind and rain causes more splits.
As it's budget day I'm probably not going to be able to go in play on this stage. |
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Bouhanni abandons. Just after I'd put some cash on him..
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This lone breakaway rider coming back to the peloton this early, may be the spark for attacks going to form a breakaway.
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Appreciate your efforts, marychain.
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Great write ups as usual, Marychain,much appreciated.
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No one really much interested in chancing their luck here -- the nature of the wind changes by the direction of the route bringing some sense to the likely names.
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BMC splitting the pack. Who's missed it?
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SKY now driving it but no teams chasing in the second group.
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Greipel not in the first group?
Cav punctures and '40 back. |
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Greipel is there
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Incidentally, very important stage for OGE and the Australians in the race -- going past some of the memorials of the great Australian victories in WWI -- OGE have a special jersey on today with black armbands and the number 100 -- celebrating the 100 years of those innocent Australian lives whom made the biggest sacrifice for the Commonwealth and the world -- Lest We Forget...
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GPS has gone live. This is betting porn.
http://letour-livetracking.dimensiondata.com/ |
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Cheers CJ -- looks awesome, but if one was relying simply on that information they might have seen Trentin riding off the front in the last 3 kms...
The Manx Missile's price has drifted out, but hasn't settled into that 2/1 price I thought, so am at some indecision, presently. Don't see much action here for attacks, and looks more like a bunch sprint. Manx had to some work to get back after that puncture, and the Gorilla had him beaten cold at the Intermediate, but the mood will be high in EQS and he'll get a good lead out, at least no worse than the previous one where he went too early, so he's certainly a factor still. Will wait for more data. |
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*yesterday...
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It will be very good, when working 100%. For now its just too buggy to be relyable
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GPS is unreliable to start with I guess. Can glean a lot more info from this than the TV pictures alone.
For me, even with bugs that's a massive plus. |
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Big crash. Few Katusha's down but can't see Kristoff.
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Pinot again. Must have been walking under ladders.
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Okay, so this is what I think: 15 kms to go and EQS bring the pace stretching the peloton and preventing non-sprinters teams from hijacking the arrowhead. The fact that Cav didn't have that second kick he is so famous for in the stage 2 finale when beaten by Greipel has stayed with me, and I'm against him in the finish here. Greipel looks in very good condition, Sagan might be there, and I think that puncture cost Cav enough to retard that second kick today again. It's a cheap lay on a rider with question marks lining up against in-form talent.
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I agree with you SP.
Poor Pinot |
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Cavendish is the best sprinter there is, what price do you think he should be?
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The price he is now is the price he should be, but based on his previous results instead of current form, that price is a price I'm more than happy to take on.
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So you think he is the correct price but are laying it. That makes no sense. Might as well play roulette. Should only be laying prices if you think they are too short.
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No one is going to argue over his class, but he didn't have second kick on stage 2, and whilst it can be argued that he went a long way out and soured his legs to find the second kick -- the fact is that he hasn't shown anything and Greipel has.
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What do you mean -- it's a cheap lay based on strong evidence -- anytime you bet like that you're going to inch toward 20-30% on the overall. It's the expensive lays that have the potential to wipe you out!
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I mean if you make something a 2.6 shot, then laying it at 2.6 makes no financial sense. If you thought he should be 3.0+ then laying under 3.0 at 2.6 makes sense! Good luck with your lay :)
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EQS have lost control here, never really had it though, protecting Yellow? We'll soon find out -- see if he gets involved in the lead out for Cav...
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Of course it makes sense -- I could've traded out for a free bet, but what's the point of having a free bet on a rider you think can't win!?
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You are making zero sense. You say you think he is 2.6 to win and now you are saying you think he can't win.
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