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Stage 3 » Antwerpen › Huy (159.5k)
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The second part of the Classics Trilogy as we head to Fleche Wallonne territory. Starting in Antwerp, we head over to one of the most famous and pictureqsue climbs in cycling the Mur de Huy. Although this is very similar to the Fleche Wallonne route, there are key differences. First of all, the route is about 50km shorter than the classic, secondly there are less of the small sharp climbs the Fleche Wallonne is famous for. These two factors should ensure the group has thinned out far less than is typical of the classic. The problem here is that there are several tight corners and difficult road layouts to negotiate in the run-up. Because positioning is all important for the finale, we will see a scrap for position in an area of limited space.
Mur de Huy
Winning on the Mur de Huy depends on positioning in the run-in, and timing your acceleration. Plenty of riders have felt good on the lowers slopes and attacked, only to be swallowed up later on when the legs have gone. Alejandro Valverde has won the last two editions of La Fleche Wallonne and he is clearly in cracking form so it would be no surprise to see him win this and swap his new Spanish National road race jersey for a nice shiny maillot jaune.
Map
Profile
Last Kms
The second part of the Classics Trilogy as we head to Fleche Wallonne territory. Starting in Antwerp, we head over to one of the most famous and pictureqsue climbs in cycling the Mur de Huy. Although this is very similar to the Fleche Wallonne route, there are key differences. First of all, the route is about 50km shorter than the classic, secondly there are less of the small sharp climbs the Fleche Wallonne is famous for. These two factors should ensure the group has thinned out far less than is typical of the classic. The problem here is that there are several tight corners and difficult road layouts to negotiate in the run-up. Because positioning is all important for the finale, we will see a scrap for position in an area of limited space.
Mur de Huy
Winning on the Mur de Huy depends on positioning in the run-in, and timing your acceleration. Plenty of riders have felt good on the lowers slopes and attacked, only to be swallowed up later on when the legs have gone. Alejandro Valverde has won the last two editions of La Fleche Wallonne and he is clearly in cracking form so it would be no surprise to see him win this and swap his new Spanish National road race jersey for a nice shiny maillot jaune.
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Actual stage 3 profile
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SAGAN is a massive price here. This time last year he was short priced fav to win stage into Sheffield with Jenkin Road climb.
I was mightily impressed with SAGAN today.punctured, got back in and almost got the win. If he follows the right wheel, doesn't go too soon or do anything silly, he could easily do a Gilbert on the Huy. Also Tinkoff could play the one-two punch off BERTIE putting in an attack and forcing others to chase and Sagan over the top. Sagan a massive bet for me |
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Totally, totally agree. I got this down to a shortlist of 4 and Sagan is top of it.
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I drove down from Liverpool to Hampshire this evening because I'm in the office this week (at least until Wednesday). As I was putting my stuff in the car I trod on a stone and turned my ankle and its swelled up like a balloon. I was supposed to leave at 5 but because I spent two hours curled up on the couch crying with ice on it before I set off I only got here at 11.45. After a quick look at the stage, the market and the classifications I thought about it all the way down and then logged on to get the bets on, but I have been screwed on prices during the time it took me to get down here.
***40/1 Sagan was 50/1 before I left *125/1 Pinot was 150/1 (4 places though) *200/1 Stybar was 300/1 **20/1 Albasini Anyway, I have written off pretty much all the frontrunners due to shortness of price or doubs about form/motivation or work done yesterday. Valverde is an obvious favourite but so so short. Sagan I like very much, think he is in beast mode at the moment and he's my biggest bet. 50/1 (4 places) would have been amazing but I'll have to take 40/1 3 places. Pinot was competing on all sorts of stages in Tour de Suisse, descents, sprints and all sorts. To me he looks like he is now the sort of rider than is not afraid to mix it with the best. No history in FW but he will be motivated to show he shouldn't be written off despite getting caught out. His performance in the TT was amazing and I think he's the sort of powerful climber that can feature tomorrow. Stybar's role in the team is uncertain. I'm sure Kwiatowski would normally be the priority but Stybar showed in Siena at Strade Bianchi that he can deal with this sort of gradient, and Etixx will be desperate to slavage something after yesterday's tactical catastrophe. 300/1 would have been an astonishing price but I'll take 200/1. To me Albasini is a really obvious choice. 22/7/3 in his last 3 attempts at this climb - think he can go two places better tomorrow. Obvious worry is that Orica decide to go with Gerrans or Bling but I'll take my chance. Can't beleive this is only stage 3 - been an absolute epic already! Good luck everyone, fingers xd |
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After only being able to see highlights of the first 2 stage, i'm really looking forward to seeing the whole stage this afternoon. Two great stages already and i'm sure today will be another.
The two main men here are obviously Valverde and Purito but i think there are enough doubts about both today to take them on. Valverde is justifiably a strong favourite is the man to beat but i just worry he may to some extent have to drag Quintan up with him?? I would have favoured Purito but he seemed to have a heavy fall yesterday and so will likely not be at 100% today. The 2 I have decided to back are Dan Martin 7/1 and Wilco kelderman 66/1 both ew first 4. Martin has good form on the huy and knows what it takes to win here. garmin were on the back foot all day yesterday and they seem to havve little real chance of doing anything major on gc, so stage wins will probably be their priority and this is sure to be a stage they will have earmarked. Kelderman is a bit more of a shot in the dark, but his 10th here this year at fleche shows he is capable of a strong ride today. He appears to be in great shape at the minute as his showing on stage 1 and his victory in his national tt last week have shown. He seems sure to be involved and should at least give mme a good run for my money. I was looking to back an etixx rider as feel sure they will be seething after missing out after all the work yesterday, I like Kwiatowski and stybar but feel they may be targetting tomorrow more? It could be that Uran maybe their card today, as he has also looked in great shape so far. Gl all hope its another cracker. |
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I really like Dan Martin but I think he's priced well enough for me to avoid him. May pick him up in play.
Orica will be looking to do something here after a poor couple of days. Albasini has been consistently in the action at Fleche to make 18's a player for me. In that sense Yates also looks big so I've picked him up at 42's which should come in a bit in running. My final pick is Vuillermoz at 150's. Why not? He might be on domestique duty but there's not much a domestique can do on the Mur, so should be able to have a crack. For those of you that have Eurosport Player they are running live streams of all the Moto cam's. Worth having the laptop open to get a different perspective to the main feed. |
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*** Michal Kwiatkowski Was 3rd on the Huy in FW in 2014, so is perfectly suited by the parcours on offer here. This year was the pre-race favourite, however he was losing ground by the Cherave and was out of position at the crucial time to form an attack in the run-in to the base of the Huy, finishing disappointingly in 33rd place. EQS will have been stung by the Manx Missile's miss in yesterday's sprint finish, and whilst the Flowerman put in a heap of work on the front he looked race hard to me. The team will turn their attention to his prospects today, with riders working for him this time around, I believe. In these types of events, what EQS have socially activated as #ourway in the media, he usually finds extra reserves of strength and effort to lay down everything for his team, and I expect no different today. Opened on the fifth line of betting at 25/1 and is still available at that price, but is also as low as 16/1 which is closer to his true price, so I think he represents excellent E/W value. Will give an honest account of himself. Suited. Go close.
* Bauke Mollema The mood in the team will be high after Spartacus' efforts yesterday to ride in his Golden Fleece today, and with the time bonuses on offer, Mollema will be out to regain some time with a strong ride here after having some fair results over this way of going, finishing 19/4/9 in his last three starts. Opened at 40/1 and is as low as 25/1 with PP. Worthy of close consideration. Take on trust. OGE were largely MIA on the front of the peloton yesterday, which is only unusual if they were not already hatching a plan for a two-pronged attack with Gerrans and Albasini on the Huy today. I'm not really impressed by the form of either rider, but IR there may be positive signs to cover one or both of them. Gerrans 50/1 and Albasini 25/1 at SP. Good luck to all, SP |
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C'mon Dan Martin, just needs to be not too far back on the final climb, he's always strong late on the Mur. Valverde having won imperiously on the Mur de Huy 3 times is the deserving favourite but after that it looks wide open especially as it sounds like J.Rod is a bit banged up.
I do expect OGE to own the last few km's of the race in the run in to the Mur de Huy and put their man Albasini (by all indications - and I think he deserves his shot) into a perfect position. GC teams too will be looking to get their riders to the front in the last 10km or so and we could get some major congestion. Agree with above posts re Kelderman and Mollema as good rough shots. Mollema showed good form in the TT with a good time against the pattern of the day as one of the later starters and Kelderman with good form will be determined to strike back at some stage after losing unnecessary time in a crash yesterday. With OGE meaning business and the GC teams keeping the pace high at the front I thought the chance of a late attack sticking was probably very slim but none the less expect to see a Wellens type and maybe T.Martin give it a go on the penultimate climb. Maybe OGE might give one of the Yates' a free role to cover late attacks on the penultimate climb also. Have Dumoulin at 2/1 to wear yellow at any stage and was surprised to see Sagan at 20/1 to be the leader after todays stage and couldn't resist as I thought he was the main danger. |
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Trek and Astana controling early. Breakaway of 4 mens
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There will definitely be some congestion into the Mur de Huy, however I think the Cherave will split the peloton quite sharply on account of its ideal launching pad for an early attack. I believe any inexperienced rider thinking he can set his sails for home over this climb is going to be a potential lay, since he'll likely come back to the favourites on the final climb as MC has inferred above. I mean, riders get swallowed up on the actual climb so some inexperienced mug looking for glory so early by going on the Cherave, or soon after, is going to blow-up big time, I believe. It is an IR play and I don't always like the stress associated with such plays, however it will be about the time equal to about 4 kms of riding, so it may become a clear opportunity. We'll see. No OGE, no EQS, but TFR now coming to the front in an obvious signal of their aspirations for Mollema. In fact it looks like the GC teams have asserted their authority for this. Interesting. Being ridden like a classics race a bit, so far, the dynamics.
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Cancellara and Dumoulin down.
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Ouch! -- High speed! Race being neutralised!
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Race neutralised?? Unless someone is seriously injured I can't see what for?
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For the purposes of organisation -- but I thought respect for the Yellow Jersey. Dumoulin abandoned.
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Very odd. Yellow jersey dictating the progress of the race?
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Dan Martin down
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Bonnet and Gerrans abandoned! Albasini will be the clear man for OGE.
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This is ridiculous. Are we going to stop each time we get a crash?
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Gerrans abandoned and Impey down, big blow for OGE in this and coming stages
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Pace is going to explode here now.
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I don't mind the stop -- shows major respect for the Yellow Jersey -- I guess what we love about this race is that which is so special about it -- you wouldn't get such respect for the Leader's Jersey in any other race.
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Sky wanted to ride to gap Cancellara
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If we are going to stop each time the yellow jersey goes down then the pack is going to be taking serious risks.
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The race neutralised to the top of the climb!
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Prudhomme setting a bad precedent here the buffoon .
Riders at the front penalised for working harder to stay out of trouble . Are we going to see this on a regular basis now? The race should have continued , whilst anybody requiring medical attention is dealt with. I do hope we are not going yet another slipper slope in modern sport of health & safety obsession . |
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The peloton was chaotic then -- riders fighting to get to the front at high speeds.
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Ridiculous situation and a terrible precedent to set here, have always felt Cancellara ahs a bit too much influence in high places at times. Don't think that would have been stopped had Froome or Contador been in yellow. Absolute sham of a stage now, and any big crash involving the yellow jersey now they are going to have to neutralize every time! Ridiculous.
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Riders about restart racing, the other discussion for another time, perhaps.
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No points for KOM.
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Plenty of kms of racing remaining -- not a big deal in the scheme of things for stage honours.
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Off!
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30 riders down, only luck what side of the road you were on. The point is there were 2 crashes and all cars attending first one.
Great sportsmanship from SKY though. |
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3 climbs some 50 kms of road to cover -- this is still on aplenty -- lost 20 mins in neutralisation.
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Not racing though are they SP, this is going to turn in to a a mad dash final 5km and that i'm afraid is a sham. Tere would have been atttacks and high pace over these first few climbs, the race has lost it's whole pattern.
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Fair point HB, the dynamic has changed considerably but this might be a good tonic for those who were taking such major risks. But I accept that the wrong riders have been unusually punished in this decision.
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Cant believe Sagan is 7's and Kwiatkowski is 20's.
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Fair enough to Prudhomme if it was a medical situation. There'll be a lot of questions asked on that decision so he better be good with his answers.
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...Although 5 kms is a bit of an exaggeration -- first signs of the pace to come back on, soon.
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