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Stage 2 » Utrecht › Neeltje Jans (166k)
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You couldn't get a flatter stage than this second Dutch stage, starting in Utrecht and moving West through Rotterdam to the North Sea coast. The peloton then heads South towards Zeeland where it finishes almost in the sea on the Neeltje Jans dam. This coastal road is severely exposed to the wind. On the dam there is a plaque that reads "Here the tide is ruled by the wind, the moon and us". The wind is said to blow up to 40mph here, and if that happens echelons will form and the peloton will be absolutely blown to pieces. Contenders will have to be absolutely on their toes here to ensure they are near the front. When we last had serious echelons in the Tour on the stage to St Amand Montrond in 2013, on what was an innocuous looking flat stage Alejandro Valverde got caught in the second group and ended up losing nearly ten minutes despite having virtually his whole team working for him, and his GC challenge was done.
Mark Cavendish won the stage that day, and his Etixx team are absolute masters of taking advantage of these Northern European conditions. It would not be a surprise to see Cav open his account on the first road stage of the Tour, and if he also has serious designs on the Green Jersey this year you'd think this stage would be marked in his road book with a thick red marker pen.
Neeltje Jans
Map
Profile
You couldn't get a flatter stage than this second Dutch stage, starting in Utrecht and moving West through Rotterdam to the North Sea coast. The peloton then heads South towards Zeeland where it finishes almost in the sea on the Neeltje Jans dam. This coastal road is severely exposed to the wind. On the dam there is a plaque that reads "Here the tide is ruled by the wind, the moon and us". The wind is said to blow up to 40mph here, and if that happens echelons will form and the peloton will be absolutely blown to pieces. Contenders will have to be absolutely on their toes here to ensure they are near the front. When we last had serious echelons in the Tour on the stage to St Amand Montrond in 2013, on what was an innocuous looking flat stage Alejandro Valverde got caught in the second group and ended up losing nearly ten minutes despite having virtually his whole team working for him, and his GC challenge was done.
Mark Cavendish won the stage that day, and his Etixx team are absolute masters of taking advantage of these Northern European conditions. It would not be a surprise to see Cav open his account on the first road stage of the Tour, and if he also has serious designs on the Green Jersey this year you'd think this stage would be marked in his road book with a thick red marker pen.
Neeltje Jans
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Here the tide is ruled by the wind, the moon and us
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Cav is Frankel in here.......will destroy this lot.....only Cav can beat Cav
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"And as we look down on the riders from the helicopter, they look like horses in a mad way. Except horses on bikes."
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Weather now saying 0% chance of rain, and hardly any wind. Looks like it's going to be a ripper and a sprint...
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Can't see further than Cav here.
With question marks over Bouhanni. It looks a straight kick between Cav, Kristoff & Griepel. Will be looking to see how well Sam Bennet does in this company. |
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Nice ARB between Betfair and Pinny on the Griepel v Kristoff match up.
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Really really tough stage to call tomorrow. No bet is a fine play here. The weather doesn't look too bad but I reckon the pace they'll be going on a road of limited width the wind will only have to blow a little bit to smash the peloton to pieces near the end.
I reckon if the weather plays no part at all then this is really only between Cav and Greipel, merely on their flat out speed and the strength of their trains. Only Giant have a comparable train and Degenkolb simply doesn't have the speed on a true flat sprint. Kristoff has a good train but not the best. He will rely on being able to maintain his sprint. Kristoff is definitely capable of finishing in the top 2 or 3 but probably can't win these stages if Cavendish and Greipel trains work and they are on form. Bouhanni has the speed but probably not the train or fitness. Coquard and Demare are just picking up pieces as they don't have teams to compete. Sagan is the interesting one. He doesn't have the speed to beat Cav, Greipel, Bouhanni or even Kristoff but he is an absolute master at following the right wheel, as he showed when he got into Kittel's slipstream so many times last year. If the wind blows however, all bets are off. We could end up with a front rank of GC guys only if echelons form, although you'd have to expect Sagan and Cavendish to be in there. Wind blowing or not, I expect Spartacus to make a play for the jersey today, and I'm getting him on board at 125/1. With no wind I would expect Cav, Greipel & Kristoff to fight it out, and Cav or Greipel to win. The three of them are the fastest and have the best form. If Cav is going to win the green jersey today is a very important stage. I think Cav wins but the price isn't great. |
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I think Sam Bennett can hold his own in this company cj. I think bora-argon screwed up though by not bringing Archibald who I think is Bennett's best lead-out man.
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I'm a bit nervous about etixx lead out train for this stage in recent times they haven;t got it right, favouring Kristoff or Greipel if it comes down to a sprint right now but before betting will see what is what with 10Km to go. :)
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Top analysis on a bunch sprint scenario, MC.
Well, I hope my weather observations are better than yesterday, they should be as they're not conflicting. Nevertheless, there may be some rain developing on approaching Rotterdam, so if that is the case than it'll support the accuracy of the same weather forecast for closer toward the finish. Which admittedly is not that exciting for echelons forming -- with a marginal if variable tail/cross wind. Don't think there's much in it to predict echelons forming -- unlikely to occur from this data, I would suggest. More likely we see a bunch sprint, usually nervous at this point of the race. If it is a sprint than I have nothing much more to add to MC's incisive sprint analysis. No bets at ante-post. Will assess the situation IR. Good luck to all, SP |
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If it stays dry I think Greipel will win because everything else sets up well for him here - short stage, wind no problem, suspect he won't contest the intermediate, fairly straight finish and the time to oppose Cavendish is often first time out. He's very hesitant on wet roads though - virtually a non-runner if it rains.
I think it will be gusty x-winds for the run-in on the coast but it will be carnage regardless. Simply the threat of win and rain on those sorts of roads plus a lot of powerful GC teams plus several powerful sprint teams that all know you need to be at the front = a big mess |
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Looks like rain might be on the way in.
Anyone found this heavily touted GPS system that's supposed to be running? |
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No CJ, I read about it in the run-in as well as the on-boards, but not seen anything.
Looks like there will be both winds and rain on the run-in, this could be absolute carnage. My bets for this are - small stakes only. win bet on Cav 5/4. Cancellara each way at 125/1 and 100/1 and smaller bets on Rowe 250/1, Van Avermaet 250/1 and Vanmarcke 400/1. |
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They are live testing the GPS tracker today apparently. Going to be world for betting.
Should be better than live pics. |
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Looking like that Tour de Pologne last year atm where we had fallen trees and hail.
Any chance of the bridges being closed if the storm sticks around that far? |
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Echelons!
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E
C H E L O N S |
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All the sprinters interested in the intermediate
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Barta
break break break Degenkolb Kristoff Sagan Cavendish Bouhanni Greipel |
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Degenkolb 11
Kristoff 10 Sagan 9 Cavendish 8 Bouhanni 7 Coquard 6 Greipel 5 De Kort 4 |
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Regarding Degenkolb, I saw an article where he said he wasn't going for the green jersey. I wondered why his price get coming in.
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*kept
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Degenkolb did a really good TT yesterday indicating for me that he is really strong at the moment.
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*CRASH* Geraint Thomas, Wilco Kelderman, Winner Anacona, Thomas de Gendt involved
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Cavendish and Greipel saving a bit of energy at the intermediate sprint. Sagan free-wheeling in behind Kristoff and Degenkolb.
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Lightning storm at the finish at the moment. 70k to go.
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Happy to have Sep Vanmarcke, GVA and Canc on board. Also got Demare at 80's. Otherwise it looks like it could be a strongman sprint, Kristoff v Degs maybe.
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how much can the rain effect the final sprint?
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If it's a tailwind at the end I expect the advantage to be less for Cav.
If this ends up as a bunch kick with all the sprinters challenging I'll be surprised. |
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Movistar have the team back for Valverde again.. When will they learn.
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Last 4km are straight. 5 or 6 corners in the 7km before that.
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I think its Quintana thats dropped! Sky and Tinkoff working together at the front to make the gap stick.
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Quintana/Valverde/Preaud all 44 seconds behind
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Didn't see Quintana when the bike did a fly by, that'll be massive if it is. I assume it was 7 for Astana rather than 1 in that group as well.
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Can't see any Astana anywhere. Have they got their rain jerseys on?
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Oh there they are
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I think Nibali is in a second group in between Sky/Tinkoff and the third group which is Movistar/Katusha
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Now they've been dropped.
Contador still on just. |
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Chute de Nibali
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