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marychain1
27 Jun 15 01:25
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
I'm going to come right out and say it. I reckon Sagan is a massive lay for green and Cav is massively overpriced. So they have made changes to the Points Classification, giving points for "super" sprint stages to reward stage winners of actual flat stages. This means that the green jersey will be won this year, potentially, by someone winning a few of the key sprints and not by someone placing consistently in the 9 "sprint" stages where points are awarded.

Super Sprint Stages are worth 50, 30, 20, 17, 15, 13, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 & 1
Stages 2, 5, 6, 7, 15 & 21

Sprint Stages are worth 25, 22, 17, 15, 12, 10, 7, 4, 2 & 1
Stages 3,4 & 8

So they way I look at it now Kittel is out, Cav can possibly score 50 (or 30 or 20) on stages 2, 5, 7, 15 and 21. Even if he only comes second on all 5 of those stages he should get 150 points.

Sagan, in my eyes, will do well to finish ahead of Cav, Greipel, Bouhanni, Kristoff (who are all faster than him) and Demare & Bling (who are about as fast as him) on stages 5, 17, 15 and 21. At most I think he will score 10-17 points on these stages where Cav will most likel score 20-50. I do think Sagan will outscore Cavendish on Stage 6 (Le Havre - super sprint where Cav will get 0 but the best I Sagan doing is 2nd so 30 points max), Stage 3 (most likely a minor placing of 10-17 points for Sagan &  for Cav) and Stage 4 (most likely 5-12 points for Sagan and 0 for Cav) but in my eyes these stages where Sagan will score and Cav won't will not help him overturn the big points tally that Cav will get in the "super sprint" stages where Cav will score very heavily.

Based on the stages that can/should be accessible for the key pretenders, I price it up like this:
Cav 5/4
Kristoff 9/4
Sagan 7/2
Greipel 5/1

The other thing thing that needs to be considered is rider/team priority. Saxo Tinkoff definitely have Contador's yellow as their team priority, Sagan is not a priority. I would argue that Katusha split Purito and Kristoff's goals fairly equally. I think Etixx's main goal is Cavendish in this Tour, and although I'm sure Kwiatowski in yellow early doors (11/4 by the way to wear yellw at any stage with PP - I reckon that's a stonking good bet) would be amazing for them I think they and he are focussed on adding to his 25 Stage wins and getting green. The one unknown is the intermediate sprints. If Sagan targets them it could be a game changer but there doesn't look to be too many that Sagan could aim for that Cav couldn't if it came down to a shootout for green and if they both ended up hitting the same breaks Cav still outsprints Sagan. I think Cavendish is an amazing each way bet for green at 7/1. If he finishes (no guarantee anyone will on this parcours) he will definitely finish in the top 3. I think with the scoring system as it is he should be favourite.

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Replies: 16
By:
marychain1
When: 27 Jun 15 01:41
Cavendish 7/1 1/4 1,2,3 is a really astonishingly good each way bet
By:
CJ70
When: 27 Jun 15 10:08
Completely agree with you on that Cav bet that's a cracker. Managed to get £10(!) on it as I've got no accounts.
By:
marychain1
When: 27 Jun 15 11:33
By:
marychain1
When: 27 Jun 15 11:47
In 2014, Sagan came:

2nd
4th
2nd
4th
4th
5th
2nd
130th
109th
93rd
9th
2nd
115th
79th
3rd
133rd
115th
88th
92nd
68th
9th

First of all, it is worth saying that even though he didn't win a stage, this is an enormously impressive set of results. If we look at the first seven stages of the Tour in 2014, Sagan's lowest finishing place was 5th. Last year, he scored 205 points over those first 7 stages and that formed a big part of his winning total of 431 points. This year, however, not only would those results only be worth 162 points, but someone winning 2 stages and coming second twice on Super sprint stages - even if they scored 0 on the other 3 stages Sagan scored in - would get 160.

And I don't think Sagan is as likely to come second in as many stages as last year. I think Le Havre (Stage 6) looks like Sagan's best chance of a stage win. If he doesn't win that I don't see where the points will come from as he could potentially finih outside the top 5 on most of the super sprint stages.
By:
cedarmaster
When: 27 Jun 15 23:37
i agree that sagan is definitely a lay in this market
By:
bb66
When: 28 Jun 15 19:09
Points scoring mode is a disgraceCryCryCryCry
By:
CJ70
When: 28 Jun 15 19:18
After Cav's performance today this looks world.

As long as he's not broken.
By:
CJ70
When: 28 Jun 15 19:35
Bouhanni out.
By:
marychain1
When: 28 Jun 15 20:35
I actually think Bouhanni being out is a bit of a negative for Cav because he would have beaten Sagan but not Cavendish in most sprints. This means more points for Sagan.
By:
woofwoofwoof
When: 29 Jun 15 13:20
firstly thanks marychain for all your posts. I rarely post but often read your reviews. one thing I can find looking at this thread is that there is no mention of the points that are given out for the intermediate sprints. I agree with what you are saying that the new system helps cav and indeed I have had a very small bet on him but I think in order to win the green jersey cav has to take part in the intermediate sprints and I am not sure how committed he will be to them. I believe its 20 points for winning an intermediate sprint with the first 15 riders scoring so even if the break is up the road likely to be some points to be fought out here.
By:
marychain1
When: 29 Jun 15 13:32
That's an excellent point, the intermediate sprints might be important, and I think they are worth 20 to the winner. I did mention in the last paragraph of my original post that the intermediate sprints could be a game changer, but that there don't seem to be too many that Sagan could access that Cav couldn't. It's possible that Sagan could get intermediate points on the cobbles on Stage 4 if he is near the front, as well as points for his finishing position. The stage 6 intermediate sprint is probably favourable to Sagan as it comes at the top of an uncategorised climb. Most of the other early ones are accessible if Cav decides to go for them. I think he might if he's in green at this stage or in contention, especially as he won't be contesting the finish on Stages like 8 and 10. The sprints are early on in stages with climbing like 11 and 12 and all the sprinters might go for those ones before a break gets away. Then for the transition & Alpine stages I would expect most/all the points to be mopped up by the break. It's possible Sagan would try and infiltrate the breaks, but then Cav could too if if the jersey depended on it.
By:
nugget
When: 01 Jul 15 10:11
First part of tour demanding enough for Nibali to impact GC?  But not too hard for Cav?

In terms of sprints, usually the harder the better for KristoffDegenkolb at 15's likes a sprint with attrition as his positioning is not always great but he will get more chances with teammate Kittel being out.  Sagan, not the fastest but has the best instincts, is the best bike-handler and like the postman consistently delivers, rain, hail or shine on any terrain.  Cant see him not winning a stage this year.  Cav and Greipel have the best sprint trains (Etixx probs the best though) and the fastest top ends but would give a big edge to Cav in positioning and bike handling.  Also, watch out for Orica-Greenedge, any type of hilly finish/classics-type stage and they'll be all over it, I really think they nailed their team selection.   I'll have to take a closer look at the parcours and weather forecast... but for green I'd probably lean towards Kristoff at the moment.   

Cav does look sensational e/w value though, 8's into 6's as mc strikes again.  Cav certainly looks up for it if his ride at the British National Champs is anything to go by.  Also agree about the intermediate sprints, they could be a determining factor in who wins the green jersey.  Cav doesnt usually go for the intermediates so he will need to win some stages.  I think Cav can win 3-4 stages but I cant see him winning any more than 4-5. Actually apart from 5 stages (2,5,7,15,21) I think Cav will struggle to score any points.  There are stages though where Cav wont feature in the finish but there are Intermediate sprints early on in the stage where his team may control things and give him a chance at some more points.
By:
nugget
When: 02 Jul 15 01:19
The more I look at the parcours the more I think this is taylor made for Sagan. I do remember Tinkoff saying that he will be in full domestique mode for Contador though and his price isn't to flash given that sentiment.  I think if  Tinkoff (the owner) lets him of the leash he could easily win it. At 1.80 though it's a pass for me considering he may not be 100% focused on the green jersey this year.
By:
nugget
When: 02 Jul 15 01:20
*tailor
By:
marychain1
When: 02 Jul 15 08:18
I think Sagan has got more stages but I think to win green he will have to a) win in Le Havre, or b) get in the top 3 in some of the super sprints.

As well as doing a) or b) he will have to get points in the intermediates because picking up a few 2nds & 3rds on the 25 point stages then some 4ths-6ths on the very flat stages isn't going to be enough if Cav wins 3 or 4 super sprints.
By:
nugget
When: 02 Jul 15 09:27
Betting against Sagan is risky.  He is really good at finding the wheel of the fastest sprinter/stage winner and finishing between 2nd-4th and picking up points on stages that should suit faster riders.

I agree this year the points competition is more favourable for stage winners.  However this year I think there a more stages where Sagan could score points where the other sprinters may struggle to score any. Stages 3,6,8 and 13 for instance.

How many points will Sagan get on stage 4 could be crucial.  Usually you would expect him to top 3 in that stage but he may have to look after Contador.  I see Sagan getting around 115 from super sprints(inc st6) and between 30 and 50 from normal sprint stages.  Thats being conservative but also assuming he wont be held back.

I see Cavendish is evens for stage 2.  I actually think stages 5,7,15 and 21 are more suited to him and he should be favourite in them as well.  Makes you wonder why he was 8-1 originally. 
I think if Cav wins stage 2 he wins the green jersey because he will get at least two more wins and I cant see him finishing outside the top 3 in the other "super sprints" (excluding st6-le havre where he wont score many if any). I actually like Kristoff for stage 2 though.   I dont see Cav scoring many points outside the super sprint stages.  If Cav can get 3 wins a 2nd and a 3rd I think that will be a winning score.  I cant see anyone not named Greipel, Cavendish or Kristoff winning one of the 5 (not counting stage 6) super sprint stages.  I think it will be 2 for Cav, 2 for Kristoff and 1 for Greipel, that scenario would bring Sagan into calculations, but as I said earlier if Cav wins stage 2 I think he'll end up with 3 wins with Kristoff and Greipel taking one each.  Then there is the intermediates!
I think the way you priced up the market is about right, I'd take Kristoff in your market as well.  The way the bookies have it priced up I can take Kristoff and Cav is still a nice e/w price.
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