*Tour de Suisse* Saturday 13th June - Sunday 21st June

Your braendle bet looks good.
only slow times at the moment.
I am at the finish hardly clouds but a little bit windy so maybe thats the reason.

I had a look at this yesterday, but needed an extra day to let things resolve into an opinion.

Firstly, the fact that Rui Costa decided on the CdD instead of going for a fourth consecutive TdS, which he had decided upon back in April in fact, suggests that he wanted a tougher test prior to his TdF aspirations.

Next, even historically, riders that ride the TdS don't perform at all well in the TdF. In fact, the numbers are very poor, with only one TdS podium finisher placing on the podium in the TdF, and that was back in 2005 with Jan Ullrich. On the other hand, in the CdD podium there came seven podiums and five of those were winners of the TdF.

More of these interesting numbers as formed by Chris Fontecchio, can be found here:
http://www.podiumcafe.com/2015/6/9/8749305/suisse-vs-dauphine-by-the-numbers

In short conclusion; the action in terms of GC riders is at the CdD as we have seen, and this is supported by BV installing only two pure climbers in the top seven on their betting board, in Pinot and Majka.

This suggest that it's essentially a tour for the puncheurs, however the difficulty of the very long stage 5, particularly the 12 kms at 10% into the finish (as MC infers) suggests that a pure climber can open a gap big enough to hold a commanding lead on GC and ultimately defend it to the finish.

Going on from there as MC suggests, Pinot is a likely candidate, and I think the 25 yo Frenchman is a suitable candidate in that type of scenario on account of his strong solo win in Romandie stage 5 into Champex-Lac, going on to just finish off the podium in 4th on GC. He's been having a good season too, with a 4th in Tirreno-Adriatico, 2nd in the Crit International, and a 10th in the Basque Country. But really, what's important here, is whether he'll be motivated to go with the moves on each stage, and exhibit motivated attacking riding? Because if he's going to just hide in the peloton until stage 5 than as Romandie showed us, that won't be enough for him to win.

I'm not convinced by Pinot, he's been around for a while now and he hasn't won a stage race as yet. I haven't seen anything that he has assessed a new path for himself this season, and I really need convincing before committing to him to win on GC here.

Majka, on the other hand, is a pure climber who has won the tough Tour of Poland, and he will be out to impress and lift his standing as a GT rider worthy of being supported by the team. The steepness of the stage 5 climb into the finish should suit him, and he appears to be TCS's GC man in this race, with Sagan going for stages, perhaps.

In conclusion; it looks like a bit of a stretch to put all the eggs into the one basket and rely on a good performance by a pure climber in having a strong ride in stage 5 to win the GC there, although that is the main narrative. However, it's more likely that someone with the similar characteristics of Costa, who is motivated to make the break in each stage and/or finish with a high-placing commitment, will win this race on GC. I therefore believe it's best to see how the riders look and what the tactics are prior to taking a back position. Having said that, the Flowerman is way too short as the favourite, yes he is a WC like Costa, but I think the parcours is just too tough for him here, and am willing to lay him as my sole wager, at this point.

Good luck to all,
SP

Today's stage looks a belter. In effect there is two different laps that are both taken twice. The first lap is not too hard with one Cat 2 climb. The second lap has a belter of a climb, the Michaelskrouz, which is obviously taken twice. This is 4km at 8%+. The sprinters have no chance of staying on here, or getting back on. Kwiatowski has the best sprint of the climbers and GC guys. Whether Bling, Sagan, Albasini and co can stay on depends purely on how hard the climbers can make this climb. I expect them to take it hard and fast. Kwiatowski at 7/1 also has an advantage here that he descends brilliantly, even though the descnt doesn't look too technical, if he is on form he is my idea of the winner even though Bling or Sagan should beat him if they are still on the premises. Another who might fancy this today is G, and I've backed him at 25/1

What happened to Kwiaowski there - not in race form and using this to get himself ready for next month?

Kwia lost contact early in the final climb and then lost 10'

Watched the last 15km of yesterdays race and Duracek seems to have Thomas to thank for not chasing that move down. It seems to be a constant problem for Thomas that because he does like to do his share of work everyone seems to sit up and wait for him to chase.

probably too late for Sagan

This should end in some kind of sprint today. This is a longish stage at nearly 200k, with a tough Cat 2 climb 60km out of Flims, before a final circuit. The circuit in to Schwarzenbach is lumpy which will make it difficult for some of the sprinters. There is a Cat 3 climb and 2 uncategorised climbs. A breakaway or late attack would normally be a player today but there is just so much vested interest in a sprint finish I think it will all come back together to some extent. I wonder whether the profile might be too much for the out and out fast men like Cav and Kristoff. The final ramps about 7km from the end have some sections at 12%. The home straight is at about 3% which might favour men like Degenkolb and Bling if they are there at the end. Degenkolb would be my favourite for this stage but his form is somewhat unproven. Bling should be there or thereabouts and I might get involved at 16/1 or better, couldn't put anyone off. I'd like to see Arnaud Demare coming back to form here and he's my first bet 25/1. He can get over short climbs and the slight ramp at the end might suit him. I'm also going to chance a small bet on Gilbert and Cancellara at 28/1 and 100/1.

Cav, Demare & Kristoff popped

Is it on live anywhere, can't stand tennis and bored stiff with Ascot.

Brilliant win by Thibault today, he looks in amazing form. He has been sprinting, descending and is climbing brilliantly. I thought that was a tremendoudly well-paced climb. I had a few quid on today at 3/1 with will hill and a few quid on here at a little over 4. More importantly my GC bet is looking promising now. I think he'll lose time on both Spilak and G in the TT but in the form he is in I don't think he will lose too much. Let's see. I have also taken 40/1 each way about the tdf to a reasonable stake with Spoilsports.

A lumpy old day today but there's so much vested interest in a sprint here that you'd think it has to end that way. I think this will be the day Cav shows his form ahead of the Tour. I think he's got the beating of Kristoff and Demare in a flat sprint and Degenkolb would prefer a bit of gradient as well, even if he was fully wound up. Kristoff's team is probably stronger which might give him the advantage but a small bet on Cav at 11/8 for me. I'll go Cav/Demare as a forecast for a bit of interest.

Not seen today's stage yet but looks like there were a few splits in the peloton late on. Pinot lost time and many of the sprinters missed the front as well.

I can see your angle SP but i really don't see Dumoulin putting 50 secs + in to G in this TT. Yes he beat him by miles in the TDF last year but that was in no way G's true form, he is better judged on his win in the TT at bayern rundfahrt last year (pinot 1m 29s behind) and his 3rd in the algarve TT this year just 3 secs back on martin.
As it stands with the current gaps i think it will  be very very close down to a second or 2 between all four main men G, Dumoulin, Pinot and Spilak, my inkling would be G just from Spilak?? but wouldn't be shocked by any of the 4 winning. Looks like all being well it should  be a cracking and tense TT to watch.

Kristoff is back...

In the nine ITTs where both G and Tom 'The Butterfly' Dumoulin have started (including prologues) -- G has never finished ahead of Tom Dumoulin. Never. The closest they have ever come to each other was when they were separated by 1sec in the prologue of this year's Paris-Nice, when they covered just 6.7kms. Yes, G's finish in that Algarve ride might look good on paper, however he covered a short distance at only 19kms, and more than half of those kms were on the downhill gradient.

Admittedly, the Bayern Rundfahrt ITT win last year is significant -- I take your point about it being a good judgement for him -- however it was less of a power course and more of a climbing hilly course at 25kms, as evidenced by Spartacus finishing 1min behind. I think if the betting board was to go up on this ITT, both the Panzerwagon and Spartacus would be installed as favourites as it suits their characteristics, particularly the Panzerwagon. He would be a commanding favourite, I think. And, Tom Dumoulin can go head-to-head with the Panzerwagon nowadays and get very close indeed.

Essentially, The Butterfly has a pedigree in this discipline and don't forget he made the podium in last year's ITT Worlds. That's a serious result on its own, however he beat Barta by over a minute and Barta was 2nd by only 4secs to G in that Bayern Rundfahrt ride. So, even on that evidence, The Butterfly should have 1min on G as it stands, then add the power aspect to the course and longer distance, and also his strong form, and he is a serious threat, imo.

The Butterfly has a consistent minute on Pinot over shorter courses also, and if we accept that Pinot and G exchange good performances against each other -- then The Butterfly has a comfortable minute on Both of them, if true to form. If the course suits and the longer distance is an advantage -- The Butterfly may fly to victory in pretty fashion.

Lastly, what I particularly think is important by the results in the ITT TdF stage 20, is that it came essentially after three weeks of racing. I mean, it's just such an honest canvas in terms of all riders being either tired/match fit, and there being no place to hide for any rider.

Monster break up the road. I've done De Gendt, Arredondo, Rebellin & Ben Hermans ew today, all fairly small steaks. Main interst is on Pinot not losing more time.

2" for Spilak

Didn't quite go to plan - all eyes on the Tour