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Pads surprise no-one by having prices up first.
Froome 11/10 Nibali 9/1 TJVG 9/1 Valverde 12/1 Talansky 14/1 Mollema 14/1 Rodriguez 14/1 |
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couldn't back Froome with counterfeit, let alone at 11/10.
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He does have things in his favour - the TTT should favour Sky over most other GC contenders and he should make up time there. Without Bertie and Quintana, his main rival should be Nibali and he showed last year that he prefers to peak for July rather than this race. If he uses this for training again rather than to win then we can probably rule him out. The other contenders don't have the same strong team support or proven climbing ability, so it all points to Froome. Having said all that, 11/10 does not interest me at all so it's no bet for me at this stage.
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Froome won't win the Tour if he doesn't win the Dauphine
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* Bauke Mollema Signed with TFR at the end of last season as their principal climber and GT contender on a two year contract. Is approaching his prime as a 28yo late-starting rider, and is relishing the pressure of being the team's leader. Came out in fair form in the early season one day races in Spain, before withdrawing mid-race in Andalucia with sickness.
Recovered quickly and showed inspiring form when he was the only one who could go out after Quintana, in stage 5 up to Terminillo of Tirreno-Adriatico. He went on to finish in 2nd place on that stage and on GC, and that's impressive as that race had arguably the strongest GC field of any race this season, with Quintana, Purito, Contador, Nibali, and Uran all riding in the race. Next, showing similar form in the Basque Country he again rode very strongly in the mountaintop finish stage 4 up to Arrate when again going up against top-class company. However, he was unlucky to suffer a high speed crash on the next stage, and whilst he finished the stage he withdrew from the race. Luckily, the extent of his injuries was only shredded skin. His Ardennes campaign looked to be a training ride, finishing: 55/19/35. Last start, in the Tour of Norway, he looked to be putting more kms into his legs in a race most suited for sprinters. He has showed signs of being a more mature rider in terms of his style of riding by being more attacking in critical situations, but he has also matured in his approach, where he is talking more about balancing his training and fitness and aiming for good results in the targeted races, of which this race is one, as he looks to test himself and build form for the TdF. In the last two seasons he has used the Tour de Suisse as his build-up for the Tour, both times finishing on the podium, so riding here is a little different, however this all fits with TFR's professional approach to his Tour aspirations and he will be out to impress with a strong performance. Opened at 14/1 but I backed him when he drifted out to 24/1 -- now is 27/1 with b365, and makes strong appeal on an E/W basis at that price. No surprise to see him figure in the finish. Has strong claims. Consider closely. Chris Froome His fortunes in the Tour have had a strong basis in this race for the past two years -- for instance when he won here he won the Tour in 2013, and last year in 2014 when he crashed here he crashed in the Tour -- so a strong performance is expected from him, especially since SKY have a strong association with this race, and as MC points out they hold a significant advantage in the TTT. Moreover, Froome appears motivated and is in good shape. I've backed him to pay for Mollema. Should be thereabouts. May pay to follow. Good luck to all, SP |