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Stage 20 » Sint Vincent › Sestriere (196k)
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Here we go then, penultimate stage of the 2015 Giro, the last summit finish and in fact the last climbing of any note. At nearly 200k, and bearing in mind the extraordinary pace of the peloton through this race, and the difficulty of the preceeding days, this will be another very testing stage. The final GC questions will be resolved on top of Sestriere which is a Cat 3 climb when taken from the Lattea side as we do, but follows on from the Cima Coppi, the legendary Colle Delle Finestre, this should give us fireworks to finish what has been a fantastic Grand Tour. We start to the stage is fairly innocuous, we start in St Vincent, in the Aosta Valley and head almost directly South towards Turin across the whole Po Valley. These first 150km are very flat as we get closer to the Cole Delle Finestre. The route rolls through the Canavese area via Ivrea and Rivarolo Canavese, it rolls past Venaria Reale and reaches the Susa Valley before the road starts to head upwards at 150km.
This is a fearsome climb. The one thing it has in its favour for the riders is that the gradient is steady. But it is steady at 9%+. There are early ramps at 14% but then it is 9% for the rest of the climb. The climb is 18.5km in total, and the first half is well paved but the final 9km are on dirt road. There are 45 hairpins on this climb, including 29 in the first 4km. After three weeks and several days of hard climbing only the strongest will still be in the vanguard of the bunch at the top of this climb. The descent is no time to relax either, as the descent is steep, narrow, technical and unprotected. The riders will be praying for good weather or this descent could end someone's race. The descent does get easier as we get on to the lower slopes but the road soon ramps back up again as we head to Sestriere, the final climb on the 2015 Giro.
Sestriere is not the hardest climb by itself, it is only 9km long, and averages only 5.5%. However, Sestriere is high, peaking at 2035m and it is the height, and the proximity to the preceeding climb that will make Sestriere hard. The steepest ramps are 9% and are at about 4.5km from the top. After that the slope eases back to about 6% for the next few km. There is one steeper ramp at 7.2% just before the finish. Sestriere has been the arrival destination for 5 previous stages of the Giro d'Italia, most recently back in 2011 when Vasil Kiryienka won stage 19. This stage could suit someone like Rigoberto Uran.
Route
Profile
Here we go then, penultimate stage of the 2015 Giro, the last summit finish and in fact the last climbing of any note. At nearly 200k, and bearing in mind the extraordinary pace of the peloton through this race, and the difficulty of the preceeding days, this will be another very testing stage. The final GC questions will be resolved on top of Sestriere which is a Cat 3 climb when taken from the Lattea side as we do, but follows on from the Cima Coppi, the legendary Colle Delle Finestre, this should give us fireworks to finish what has been a fantastic Grand Tour. We start to the stage is fairly innocuous, we start in St Vincent, in the Aosta Valley and head almost directly South towards Turin across the whole Po Valley. These first 150km are very flat as we get closer to the Cole Delle Finestre. The route rolls through the Canavese area via Ivrea and Rivarolo Canavese, it rolls past Venaria Reale and reaches the Susa Valley before the road starts to head upwards at 150km.
This is a fearsome climb. The one thing it has in its favour for the riders is that the gradient is steady. But it is steady at 9%+. There are early ramps at 14% but then it is 9% for the rest of the climb. The climb is 18.5km in total, and the first half is well paved but the final 9km are on dirt road. There are 45 hairpins on this climb, including 29 in the first 4km. After three weeks and several days of hard climbing only the strongest will still be in the vanguard of the bunch at the top of this climb. The descent is no time to relax either, as the descent is steep, narrow, technical and unprotected. The riders will be praying for good weather or this descent could end someone's race. The descent does get easier as we get on to the lower slopes but the road soon ramps back up again as we head to Sestriere, the final climb on the 2015 Giro.
Sestriere is not the hardest climb by itself, it is only 9km long, and averages only 5.5%. However, Sestriere is high, peaking at 2035m and it is the height, and the proximity to the preceeding climb that will make Sestriere hard. The steepest ramps are 9% and are at about 4.5km from the top. After that the slope eases back to about 6% for the next few km. There is one steeper ramp at 7.2% just before the finish. Sestriere has been the arrival destination for 5 previous stages of the Giro d'Italia, most recently back in 2011 when Vasil Kiryienka won stage 19. This stage could suit someone like Rigoberto Uran.
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So, the-no-stage-win-but-win-on-GC contention was put to Contador after yesterday's stage, and he openly admitted that the stage win was not his priority but rather defending the leader's jersey was his only concern on stage 19. To me, that sounded a little inconsistent from what he showed on the stage approaching the final.
Hesjedal was the first to attack that select group and the first rider to counter was Contador. Now, I believe Contador responded to Hesjedal conclusively, even though he is no threat to him so close to the finish -- in order to test his legs and strength to bury himself for the last few kms. He got on quite easily, and I thought here we go, Contador is looking like he has good sensations, however I think he just didn't have the legs or was concerned about an all-out brawl against him with the other riders still present, and he was happy to sit on. Essentially, I don't buy Bertie's position that winning on GC without a stage win is of no concern for him. The stage yesterday might have been a GC consolidation of sorts, however given the same or similar scenario today, and I think even if he doesn't have the legs he must go for the victory. I just don't understand, in the form he is in at this Giro and the emphatic nature of his approaching GC victory -- that he won't want to suffer one last time to raise his arms in victory for the stage and for the exclamation point which will be his second Giro win. Uran is riding proudly and agree it could suit him, but I can't go past Contador, both as a trade and straight out win. Good luck to all, SP |
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The problem with Contador is that if he wants to go for the stage win, he must be strong than everyone and go alone or he will take Landa-Hesjedal-Aru-Kruisjwisk on his wheel and in the end he looses. And he doesnt want to race for the other so hes happy to sit and control Landa and Aru probably. And the stage is a bit tricky with the super hard climb there, but than you have a dificult descent and a easy climb to the finish that doesnt suit Contador.
I can see something like yesterday, with Astana controling for the stage win and the GC guys battling for it. I made some small bets on Mikel Nieve, Monsalve,Intxausti, Pelizzoti, looking for a break away, even though i think the breakaway wont make it till the finish. Good luck to all. |
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Contador to ride away for the win.
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That's very strong analysis EB -- I simply cannot reject it. Admittedly, there are some holes in my theory as a result, but I'm anticipating a high pace on the front and then some fireworks amongst the likely stage participants, and in that type of event Contador has proven he is the best from the rest, but yes he will require some luck in running based on what you have advanced so solidly.
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If Contador decides to go for the win, I don't think the others (apart from maybe Landa) will be able to stay on his wheel.
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I think Landa has the power to stay with Contador if he attacks. And then we have a fast descent and 9km of easy climb. Quiet open finish if no team does the race really hard to make a big selection at the very beggining of the Finestre.
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I think on yesterday's ride Aru might be capable of answering, however it would appear he requires his own pace. Nevertheless, Aru looked strong when in full commitment, and I certainly wouldn't lay against him sticking with Landa and Contador.
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got some zakarin at @150 trying to trade later if he wins a bit of time before the GC guys attacks
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Trading already @15! Will wait 2 or 3 minutes more if he continues to win time like this it will be below @10 very soon
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Damn, Zakarin is flying! Ill risk and wait a bit more, he could be a real contender here
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He's on a good ride here, Zakarin. We know he can keep going like this from the evidence in Romandie, but this is a major step-up in class. Would definitely lay some off at this point, especially now that there are some accelerations in the peloton.
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Wondering if there will be any significant mechanicals as the riders hit the dirt?
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Layed some @12 but will keep all my winnings on him, he looks very good, and can win a couple of seconds on the descent
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Kruiswijk is like the canary in the cage in the GC selection group -- they're gaining time on Zakarin whilst he rides tempo -- not looking good for Zakarin.
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All safe for now SP. Kruijswick takes the mountain classification
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Actually, with the battle for the stage win, and after the mountais classification decided, we could see some indecision in the group, and that could favour Zakarin.
And btw, this Zakarin looks so much like Froome, its impressive. |
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And i already backed off my lay on Contador, even if i think he wont win
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If it becomes heavily tactical in the GC group and Zakarin holds 2 mins, I'd be somewhat confident in his descending skills and the cat 3 to the finish, which is right up his alley -- but he continues to lose time and here come the accelerations.
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Like ive been telling for the last days, AST has done an awfull race. Landa could win this race.
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Game over Zakarin, I think.
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Bertie riding like yesterday -- Landa looks good here.
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Yes its over for him, Landa is too strong. Almost a minute in 2km. Damn, AST rood so bad all the Giro.
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Tall and lanky and elbows flapping!
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Sorry SP, but yesterday Contador didnt go all in, but today he couldnt keep up with Landa, its different
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Landa barring a mechanical, and we haven't seen one yet from what I can tell...
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2km for the top, zakarin can ride on Landa's wheel.
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He couldn't go with Aru yesterday either though, stays in the GC selection protecting his lead -- what's changed?
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Like i said, Contador is cooked
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Contador having his bad day!?
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I was totally wrong about Contador !!
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Zakarin will be suited by the gradient of the final slope if he sticks on with Landa -- but I haven't forgotten Landa's turn-of-speed.
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Yep, totally wrong about Bertie here, also. Plenty of opportunities left in this stage, though.
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Contador missed a bag?
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Zakarin sticking on, finding his second wind. Landa still my pick on previous evidence -- has done less work than Zakarin who has been in the lead much longer.
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I wasnt :) And Landa wins the mountain Classification if hes 1º in the stage!
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Uran looks fresh
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great race to watch . But if this game is still clean im a Dutchman.
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If Landa is 2º he scores the same points as Visconti. Who wins?
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Zakarin doing wonders for Landa's price as Zakarin refuses to drift off the back -- working hard!
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