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Stage 18 » Melide › Verbania (170k)
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A flat stage to start with but one with a serious sting in the tail. Today's stage is 170km, of which the first 120km are virtually completely flat. We then have a sole categorised climb, but it's a big one and a fast descent to the line. So the peloton take the line in Melida, which is still in Switzerland, on Lake Lugano, right across from the strange Italian state of Campione d’Italia. From there they take the road over Lugano, and clockwise Southwards around it. At Port Ceresio they move away from the lake, heading South West on the ss344 to Lago di Varese and then on to Lago di Maggiore. We also follow this lake clockwise, northwards through Stresa, Feriolo and Bieno. From Bieno they head North East towards the climb of Monte Ologno, before turning back around Southwards to the finish town of Verbania.
Monte Ologna is a seriosuly hard climb. 10km long with an average gradient of over 9% is no joke, except that it's the first uphill gradient and it comes 123km into a 170km long stage. The steepest slopes are on the early part of the climb, where it goes up to 13% but the last 4km average virtually 10% and this will see a very select group get to the top. By the time the boys crest "Henry" they are only 27km away from the end of the stage. As the next 22km are all downhill, and there's only 5km of flat at the bottom, anyone that gets a decent distance could stay away if the GC boys all mark each other.
The first part of the descent from Henry to Verbania is curvy and technical, although not too steep. Although it gets steeper on the lower slopes, it gets wider so there should be no issues unless the weather comes in. The descent averages about 5%, but when it flattens out 5km from the end it runs past a number of traffic islands and roundabouts. Once we reach the waterfront the last 3.5km are fairly straightforward however, and although the finiish straight is only 200m long Piazza Garibaldi is 6.5m wide and asphalt. The last time the Giro finished in Verbania was in 1992 when Franco Chicchioli won Stage 19. A decent climber is going to take this stage but anyone that wants to stay out after the Oonga must be a top class descender. Someone like Adam Hansen might fit the bill.
Route
Profile
A flat stage to start with but one with a serious sting in the tail. Today's stage is 170km, of which the first 120km are virtually completely flat. We then have a sole categorised climb, but it's a big one and a fast descent to the line. So the peloton take the line in Melida, which is still in Switzerland, on Lake Lugano, right across from the strange Italian state of Campione d’Italia. From there they take the road over Lugano, and clockwise Southwards around it. At Port Ceresio they move away from the lake, heading South West on the ss344 to Lago di Varese and then on to Lago di Maggiore. We also follow this lake clockwise, northwards through Stresa, Feriolo and Bieno. From Bieno they head North East towards the climb of Monte Ologno, before turning back around Southwards to the finish town of Verbania.
Monte Ologna is a seriosuly hard climb. 10km long with an average gradient of over 9% is no joke, except that it's the first uphill gradient and it comes 123km into a 170km long stage. The steepest slopes are on the early part of the climb, where it goes up to 13% but the last 4km average virtually 10% and this will see a very select group get to the top. By the time the boys crest "Henry" they are only 27km away from the end of the stage. As the next 22km are all downhill, and there's only 5km of flat at the bottom, anyone that gets a decent distance could stay away if the GC boys all mark each other.
The first part of the descent from Henry to Verbania is curvy and technical, although not too steep. Although it gets steeper on the lower slopes, it gets wider so there should be no issues unless the weather comes in. The descent averages about 5%, but when it flattens out 5km from the end it runs past a number of traffic islands and roundabouts. Once we reach the waterfront the last 3.5km are fairly straightforward however, and although the finiish straight is only 200m long Piazza Garibaldi is 6.5m wide and asphalt. The last time the Giro finished in Verbania was in 1992 when Franco Chicchioli won Stage 19. A decent climber is going to take this stage but anyone that wants to stay out after the Oonga must be a top class descender. Someone like Adam Hansen might fit the bill.
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Anyone got any ideas for this stage? I'm stumped.
Hansen had a go today, but I don't think he'd have made it though even if he had had help from Gretsch and Atapuma, despite what the comms were saying. I genuinely have absolutely no idea how this stage is going to play out. I don't think the morning break will make it no matter how strong it is, the late climb is very very tough with a small technical descent near the top before more climbing, then there is two further descents, the second of which is fairly fast and easy. I don't know whether a sole attacker can stay away from a bigger group or maybe whether a big bunch can get to the line. I can't see this stage having much of an impact on the GC, despite the late climb. And I think to some extent the winner of the stage will be the one who has the best brain as well as the best legs. It may well be about who times their move right.
Market is very open with Visconti favourite best price 10/1. I'd quite like to see Kruijswijk take a stage, partially because Lotto Jumbo have had no luck this season and partially because he has ridden really well after a tough first week and has been very impressive. He is climbing very well, is in the best form he's been in in years and this stage could potentially suit him. I think the play for me is no bet to start with, no bet when the morning break forms and then get involved late on in play possibly as they head towards the climb, and either back or lay those involved as I see it. Good luck whatever you do boys, see you tomorrow.
Market http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-18/winner
Visconti 10/1
Betancur 14/1
Landa 14/1
Zakarin 15/1
Hesjedal 16/1
Contador 20/1
Inxausti 22/1
Kruijswijk 22/1
Pirazzi 25/1
Hansen had a go today, but I don't think he'd have made it though even if he had had help from Gretsch and Atapuma, despite what the comms were saying. I genuinely have absolutely no idea how this stage is going to play out. I don't think the morning break will make it no matter how strong it is, the late climb is very very tough with a small technical descent near the top before more climbing, then there is two further descents, the second of which is fairly fast and easy. I don't know whether a sole attacker can stay away from a bigger group or maybe whether a big bunch can get to the line. I can't see this stage having much of an impact on the GC, despite the late climb. And I think to some extent the winner of the stage will be the one who has the best brain as well as the best legs. It may well be about who times their move right.
Market is very open with Visconti favourite best price 10/1. I'd quite like to see Kruijswijk take a stage, partially because Lotto Jumbo have had no luck this season and partially because he has ridden really well after a tough first week and has been very impressive. He is climbing very well, is in the best form he's been in in years and this stage could potentially suit him. I think the play for me is no bet to start with, no bet when the morning break forms and then get involved late on in play possibly as they head towards the climb, and either back or lay those involved as I see it. Good luck whatever you do boys, see you tomorrow.
Market http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-18/winner
Visconti 10/1
Betancur 14/1
Landa 14/1
Zakarin 15/1
Hesjedal 16/1
Contador 20/1
Inxausti 22/1
Kruijswijk 22/1
Pirazzi 25/1
My only doubt here is if Astana wants to attack Contador or not. They could try and put 1 or 2 guys in the break away to help a possible attack from Landa on that hard climb. After the main climb there are 2 more small climbs and then 20km on a big descent... hard to call anything here really. Ill put some bets later if matched.
Felline @70
Battaglin @130
Grega Bole @90
Andre Cardoso @150
Good luck all
Battaglin @130
Grega Bole @90
Andre Cardoso @150
Good luck all
I think AST may wish to hold sway on the front up the main Ologno climb, and I agree with MC that it is very tough, and for that reason, I further agree that it unlikely that this will result in a GC showdown, on account of the top of the climb being just too far out from the finish.
The only real option AST might have is to tap-out a pace which is so mild it keeps the integrity of their climbing team, and they then drive the speed on the other minor climbs and the descents, to set-up Landa for later. We saw KAT attack on the descent the other day, so it's not impossible for AST to try something similar. I think it's a minor possibility, but they will want to show that they are not willing to surrender to TCS and Bertie, but show their fighting qualities right to the end. This climb can have a devastating effect on a rider who is feeling poorly, so it's up to them to test that theory, I think.
Nevertheless, I am going to take MC's lead and only get involved IR, there are just too many scenarios and considerations to work out, but I think this type of stage will be interesting to watch carefully as it's not really a standard affair. There are stages in the TdF with a major climb long before the end which contains la long descent, however this is Italy and things work differently here.
Good luck to all,
SP
The only real option AST might have is to tap-out a pace which is so mild it keeps the integrity of their climbing team, and they then drive the speed on the other minor climbs and the descents, to set-up Landa for later. We saw KAT attack on the descent the other day, so it's not impossible for AST to try something similar. I think it's a minor possibility, but they will want to show that they are not willing to surrender to TCS and Bertie, but show their fighting qualities right to the end. This climb can have a devastating effect on a rider who is feeling poorly, so it's up to them to test that theory, I think.
Nevertheless, I am going to take MC's lead and only get involved IR, there are just too many scenarios and considerations to work out, but I think this type of stage will be interesting to watch carefully as it's not really a standard affair. There are stages in the TdF with a major climb long before the end which contains la long descent, however this is Italy and things work differently here.
Good luck to all,
SP
I think the likes of Felline and Battaglin are definitely in play. Looks like one for the break and it's not really a stage for pure climbers even though the one climb is a hard one. Also like Herrada and Gavazzi
Huge fight for the breakaway, a lot of interests in play
Not bad for me, my main pick is trying to bridge to the breakaway, go Felline!
Gilbert, Chavanel, Cunego, Nocentini, Bongiorno, Moinard, De La Cruz, Ferrari, Weening, Busato, Villella, Haga, Belkov and Sivtsov. Herrada and Felline chasing on.
And someone matched my bet at @100 on david de la cruz, great!
Chavanel looks imposing for this stage after being spotted in the breakaway. I'll admit he rode beyond my understanding of his characteristics into Abetone on stage 5, finishing in 2nd place, just ahead of a closing group of GC men. On that ride he is in this with a very good chance to hang on with the bunch, but even if he doesn't hang he is a specialist descender who will make good time on the descent if he takes some chances. But I'll think there are some here who could gap him -- just looking if they can descend.
Yep, bad luck there EB, just couldn't make it across.
Its a very tricky stage. Although we have a hard climb, theres still 36km to go after the top, with some fast descents and 2 small climbs. I dont see how Gilbert can hang on with the best climbers, but how much time will he loose? Can he recover downhill? Interesting stage.
Looks like the peloton are happy for the break to take this stage. Be nice if we could watch it.
Huzzah, Eurosport UK have decided to leave the chaps tennis match and instantly go to highlights from yesterday.. Fail.
I think Bongiorno might be the best climber in the breakaway -- if he puts in an attack he is likely to gap all of these. Also, BAR haven't won a stage and it looks like it is up to him today, so am expecting an attack, and then consolidation on the little extra bits before the long descent. Not sure about his descending skills, but he'll want to take chances if he attacks to not make it a wasteful showing. He'll have to be very precise and just go from the start, perhaps.
Gilbert might have lost his nerve a little on the descents, over the last few years, not confident with his chances but he has hung tough on these hard climbs in the past. Certainly Chavanel is a gun descender, he will gain a heap of time on the descent, but have to judge how much time behind he is by the final little climb. I think the market might be excited by what he will show on the descent. Weening is an interesting proposition also, he is a very hard rider but perhaps not a great climber -- he will try his hand on the descent, I think.
Gilbert might have lost his nerve a little on the descents, over the last few years, not confident with his chances but he has hung tough on these hard climbs in the past. Certainly Chavanel is a gun descender, he will gain a heap of time on the descent, but have to judge how much time behind he is by the final little climb. I think the market might be excited by what he will show on the descent. Weening is an interesting proposition also, he is a very hard rider but perhaps not a great climber -- he will try his hand on the descent, I think.
De La Cruz @100 was a gift, i know hes a strong climber, but they have to open a gap on the others to have a chance.
Contador attacks and Landa is in the back of the peloton
Dont quite understand what hes doing... probably wont win anything and could pay it later!
Contador flexing here I think -- wants a defining stage of his top form in this race.
Astana runs so bad... Landa is behind and Astana is pacing the Aru group... lol
Bertie not blitzing, riding steadily instead, nothing to worry about yet I don't believe.
Cant understand why Contador doesnt wait... is riding alone for nothing, the group will cacth him later for sure
Green on everyone but Gilbert and huge winnings on De La Cruz and Belkov
If it's true that Contador had access to his apartment yesterday that's the equivalent of a rest day.
Impressed that Hesjedal has sneaked out of the GC group off camera in a fruitless chase of Contador.
Impressed that Hesjedal has sneaked out of the GC group off camera in a fruitless chase of Contador.
Interrupted descent approaching -- would be nice to get some gaps!
This GPS is crazy... Contador stops and takes 10 or 15s on Landa Group ahahaha
And Moinard not working could be a big contender for stage win
54 secs for Gilbert who looks okay, and Chavanel who is cooking, group.
Actually the fight here is for the podium, because the first place is given
First time Chavanel comes to the front on the descent -- is not getting away, though.
And Moinard started now to work... wich could be a sign that Gilbert isnt that good
What happened to Belkov? He was in between the two groups?
Reporting error or has he gone off the road?
Reporting error or has he gone off the road?
Bongiorno stretching off the front -- will need to consolidate any road on the final ramp prior to long descent if he is going to have a chance, I think.
Belkov error, I believe.
Belkov error, I believe.
Chavanel descending well, making ground on Gilbert, but Gilbert is taking chances which i didn't think he would do, and I think he is home bar a mechanical.
Poor od Bongiorno, always the bridesmaid. Keep an eye out for him over the next two stages though.
This Giro might not have been that exciting from the point of working out who was going to win the GC, but every single day has been exciting and surprising.
It was obvious the breakaway group were going to get it, and whilst the front "climbing" group had opened a gap of some 30secs, the long descent and the rider that took chances on the descent opened the biggest and ultimately winning gap -- thought that would've been Chavanel intially, but he looked to be cooking, and Gilbert was looking comfortable and strong when it counted.
I made it 1'12 difference between Contador/Hesjedal and the next group on the road
By the way what a top ride from Chad Haga in the end. Dropped immediately as soon as the break started to climb the Olongo but managed to come in only 1m 40 behind the main break.
In addition, I think having Moinard was always a benefit for Gilbert, looks like Chavanel just got plain mugged when with Gilbert in the chase 4 group.
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