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Stage 15 » Marostica › Madonna di Campiglio (165k)
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Despite the exciting first half of the Giro, we haven't had a huge amount of proper mountain stages with summit finishes. That all changes today on this stage that will bring back memories of Pantani for the Tifosi. This is a proper mountain stage with a proper summit finish, and coming as it does the day after the long individual time trial we could see some big changes in GC. We have three categorised climbs in all (1x Cat 2 & 2 x Cat 1s) but a number of other uncategorised climbs. We start off in the beautiful walled town of Marostica, in the Veneto, famous for its giant game of chess played every year with people for pieces.
The peloton goes initially West, then North West through Valdastico where we find the opening climb of the day, (Cat 2) La Fricca. We descend through Trento, before tackling the sharp but uncategorised Monte Bodone climb. The peloton then follow the route to Sarche, Terme di Comano and Tione di Trento. 40km from the end of the stage the peloton hit the base of the very tough Passo Daone climb (Cat 1).
Passo Daone will cause some serious damage. It is 8.4km long, with an average gradient of 9.2%. It has several long sections at 11%+ and it has maximum gradients of 14%. Most of the very steep sections are actually in the first half of the climb, and the last 2-3km are a bit more steady, but still get to 9%. There is no time to switch off after cresting the summit because the peloton have a very steep and tricky descent off Passo Daone. This is a narrow mountain road with lots of hairpins. At the bottom of the descent the road starts to rise again towards the final climb at Madonna Di Campiglio (Cat 1).
Madonna Di Campiglio is actually a fairly steady climb compared to Passo Daone, although at 15.5km it is far longer. The climb runs through the urban area of Madonna di Campiglio, and contains a short paved section. The steepest sections of the climb are found about 2-3km from the end of the stage where the road rises to 12% just outside the town before easing off again. The last 2km are at 7% on well surfaced asphalt roads, 5.5 wide at the finish.
Madonna Di Campiglio is a ski resort in Trentino which is seen as the gateway to the Dolomites. It has been the destination of one previous Giro stage, when Marco Pantani won Stage 20 in 1999 before being chucked out while leading due to a hematocrit reading of 52%. Many of Pantani's supporters say that even though he did win races after this, he never really recovered from the disgrace of this doping charge and from having that year's Giro snatched from his grasp. Fabio Aru will want to take the stage on this climb due to its importance in Italian cycling history, and Porte will think that the steady final climb suits his talents but surely no-one will be able to live with Alberto Contador if he decides to take this stage. After Saturday's time trial the other contenders have to find the best part of 3 minutes on Bertie and they will all now surely be competing with each other for podium places only in a similar manner to Nibali's rivals in the Tour last year.
Route
Profile
Despite the exciting first half of the Giro, we haven't had a huge amount of proper mountain stages with summit finishes. That all changes today on this stage that will bring back memories of Pantani for the Tifosi. This is a proper mountain stage with a proper summit finish, and coming as it does the day after the long individual time trial we could see some big changes in GC. We have three categorised climbs in all (1x Cat 2 & 2 x Cat 1s) but a number of other uncategorised climbs. We start off in the beautiful walled town of Marostica, in the Veneto, famous for its giant game of chess played every year with people for pieces.
The peloton goes initially West, then North West through Valdastico where we find the opening climb of the day, (Cat 2) La Fricca. We descend through Trento, before tackling the sharp but uncategorised Monte Bodone climb. The peloton then follow the route to Sarche, Terme di Comano and Tione di Trento. 40km from the end of the stage the peloton hit the base of the very tough Passo Daone climb (Cat 1).
Passo Daone will cause some serious damage. It is 8.4km long, with an average gradient of 9.2%. It has several long sections at 11%+ and it has maximum gradients of 14%. Most of the very steep sections are actually in the first half of the climb, and the last 2-3km are a bit more steady, but still get to 9%. There is no time to switch off after cresting the summit because the peloton have a very steep and tricky descent off Passo Daone. This is a narrow mountain road with lots of hairpins. At the bottom of the descent the road starts to rise again towards the final climb at Madonna Di Campiglio (Cat 1).
Madonna Di Campiglio is actually a fairly steady climb compared to Passo Daone, although at 15.5km it is far longer. The climb runs through the urban area of Madonna di Campiglio, and contains a short paved section. The steepest sections of the climb are found about 2-3km from the end of the stage where the road rises to 12% just outside the town before easing off again. The last 2km are at 7% on well surfaced asphalt roads, 5.5 wide at the finish.
Madonna Di Campiglio is a ski resort in Trentino which is seen as the gateway to the Dolomites. It has been the destination of one previous Giro stage, when Marco Pantani won Stage 20 in 1999 before being chucked out while leading due to a hematocrit reading of 52%. Many of Pantani's supporters say that even though he did win races after this, he never really recovered from the disgrace of this doping charge and from having that year's Giro snatched from his grasp. Fabio Aru will want to take the stage on this climb due to its importance in Italian cycling history, and Porte will think that the steady final climb suits his talents but surely no-one will be able to live with Alberto Contador if he decides to take this stage. After Saturday's time trial the other contenders have to find the best part of 3 minutes on Bertie and they will all now surely be competing with each other for podium places only in a similar manner to Nibali's rivals in the Tour last year.
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I agree with MC that the Passo Daone is a very tough climb, and because it comes prior to the much easier Madonna Di Campiglio, it has the potential to severely blunt the efforts of the long-range breakaway riders, making the chances of a GC rider to win this stage more likely. That is to say, that whilst the breakaway may likely make it over with a significant gap, the effort will have been great and therefore the ability to bury themselves on Madonna Di Campiglio less likely. Without a total, high intensity rhythm commitment on the final climb, a breakaway is unlikely to succeed, especially if the GC contenders and pretenders attack each other.
Having said that, I think it is more likely to see Aru saving himself for the final climb and attack Contador there, since Contador has to simply ride defensively for this stage. The Passo Daone is too far out, too difficult, and a not a preferred staging point for Aru to attack Contador. I therefore think that the gloves may be off for that climb, and that brings a breakaway with specialist descending skills back in with an increased chance. Nevertheless, Contador will want to consolidate his lead with a win and it won't be a surprise to see him counter Aru and sail for home and the stage win once they hit the final climb. We know from experience that GC riders likely to win a GT, want to win by winning the big mountain stages to negate any potential talk of winning softly by its conclusion, and Contador is one rider who enjoys putting on a show. ** Alberto Contador Showed his strength and power in yesterday's ITT by almost winning the stage, even though he was disadvantaged by more difficult conditions when the wind changed against the latter-starting riders. Looked explosive and appears to be reaching his best in comfortable fashion. Will not want to give any rider the smallest opportunity, quite the opposite he'll want to exhibit a commanding performance by targeting the stage win once seeing-off all attacks. 5/2 (various) although 3/1 is his true price. Riding with confidence. The one to beat. Good luck to all, SP |
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Pantani's win on Madonna di Campiglio
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AnXeKYo27M
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cant see a breakaway surviving as surely the teams of anyone left of serious gc aspirations will want to make sure the pace is fast in order for them to attack contador on final climb however i am with contador as i believe he is the strongest at present and may well want to win with authority and time in order to have a fairly easy last week
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Contador is nailed for this one if the GC riders go for it. After yesterdays ridiculous performance I see no reason why I should refrain from betting on this any more.
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I've taken Betancur 50/1 and Cataldo 80/1 each way, but my main bet here is Contador at 3.75 on the exchange
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Taken Zakarin small in case he TT's to the line alone. Otherwise it looks like the GC boys are going to contest this.
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Did anyone see Zakarin rejoin the peloton, I think he was somewhere in the middle like Gavazzi, unless he was the first to rejoin the peloton after a "nature break"?
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I was looking at the same thing. Couldn't pick him out in the peloton when we had brief overhead shots although that means nothing.
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Uran gone. Porte out the window.
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c'est vraiment un peloton de deux vitesses ici
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Porte is not really Australian -- those Tasmanians have always been suspects!
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Visconti is no mug on the climbs, especially one like this on approach, however he'd surely need about 4 mins on such a solid AST arrow. Still not willing to keep him safe.
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The stage is going against Contador a little here, being so isolated. He won't be capable of covering one of the AST riders who feels particularly strong to bury for stage glory. It'll likely come late, though, I think.
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The later the AST rider to attack the better for Contador who will likely taste fury and go over the top.
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Astana is doing the joob for the Contador's stage win. Cool.
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That possiblity was why I picked Cataldo as cover but he's gone out the back. Landa could be the one. I've still got Betancur there though.
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Contador
it's all about the mind games |
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If there was any doubt if Contador wants this stage that move for intermediate showed it -- he is ready to rumble! The longer there are no attacks the better for him!
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Looks like yesterday's ITT has sharpened Konig a bit -- he's a rough chance but not willing to cover him as Contador is getting an armchair ride here.
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Waiting for the Astana TTT off the front here.
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I think AST fear an attack in case it draws out Contador and puts Aru under pressure, but surely they should know that Contador is in defensive heaven here.
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AST is taking Contador as he wants... they have to attack, not pace the group
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Obvious they can suffer a counter attack from Contador, but they have to try something...
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I think the main question is at what point -- kms to go -- is Contador willing to bury himself for the stage.
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If AST let the attacks for the last kms thats perfect for Contador. He just counters and goes deep for the last 3-4 km and wins
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Can't see Betty anymore
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That steep section is roughly 2 kms I believe, so if no one has gone by 3 kms, Contador will attack and win easily, I'm willing to wager.
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i only have caruso and Kruijswick as a backup for Contador.
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Kruisjwik will pop on the steep section.
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he looks strong... and the climb is not very steep
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Konig also looks very strong
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Have to admire Geniez for holding onto the back of this forever two wheels off the back.
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Kruisjwik is the gift that keeps on giving. Can't see how Contador loses this stage!
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2km now with 2-3%... time to kruijswik attack :)
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You think Contador is doing a lot of work in comparison to Aru, but to me it looks like he is priming himself.
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He's just holding on EXpertBoy.
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AST looks like Contador team... strange way to ride
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