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Stage 14 (ITT) » Treviso › Valdobbiadene (59.4k)
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This is a long and challenging time trial at 59.4km, and it will cause some very large time gaps. It could be make or break for anyone with GC aspirations. The start ramp is in Treviso, in the Veneto region. This region is home to Prosecco wine production and the route takes us through the vineyards. The stage can be divided in two halves. The first 30km, from Treviso to Conegliano and run along wide, straight and level roads, with only a few roundabouts to worry about. The second half of the race is challenging, there is a 3km climb with a 7% average gradient just after Conegliano. After that climb the road undulates the rest of the way through the hills to Valdobbiadene, on wide, well-surfaced roads. Alessandro Petacchi won a sprint when Stage 3 of the 2009 Giro finished in Valdobbiadene last time.
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Profile
This is a long and challenging time trial at 59.4km, and it will cause some very large time gaps. It could be make or break for anyone with GC aspirations. The start ramp is in Treviso, in the Veneto region. This region is home to Prosecco wine production and the route takes us through the vineyards. The stage can be divided in two halves. The first 30km, from Treviso to Conegliano and run along wide, straight and level roads, with only a few roundabouts to worry about. The second half of the race is challenging, there is a 3km climb with a 7% average gradient just after Conegliano. After that climb the road undulates the rest of the way through the hills to Valdobbiadene, on wide, well-surfaced roads. Alessandro Petacchi won a sprint when Stage 3 of the 2009 Giro finished in Valdobbiadene last time.
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Two each way bets for me from Bet £3.65 early prices
Dillier 150/1 and Kiryienka 22/1
Dillier 150/1 and Kiryienka 22/1
Weather could play a part here. Bookies pricing this up as if better weather is expected for the GC guys. This a fairly open ITT imo. My main two trains of thought for this are that the weather could do anything so oppose the short priced favourites, and don't be surprised if someone improves beyond all recognition. Especially don't be surprised if that person is from Astana or Katusha.
My main bet is Vasil Kiryienka though, I've take 22/1 & 25/1. I'm a little worried Sky might not see this as a target protecting Porte thinking of Sunday but surely now the pink jersey is gone for Porte they can free VK up to have a poke at this? Porte himself is a worthy favourite but he's daft short. I like Dillier of BMC too, I've had a bit at 150/1 and 175/1 and he's my second biggest stake. He was only 2 mins down in the Worlds on a similar course and had a good prep on Thursday by having about 20k out in front on his own. I've had a few quid on Zakarin with VietcongBet at 13/2 win only as he nailed the Romandie TT. This extra distance is an unknown but he can clearly climb and ride in the wind - he looks very strong.
I've thrown a few each way quiddage at some other longshots who could go well - Ludvigsson 200/1, Inxausti 200/1, Siutsou 200/1 and Aru 150/1. No way I would be pricing Aru up at 150/1 if I was a bookie. That's probably his true price on form, but if there's anyone that's going to throw in a ridiculous time tomorrow he's our man.
My main bet is Vasil Kiryienka though, I've take 22/1 & 25/1. I'm a little worried Sky might not see this as a target protecting Porte thinking of Sunday but surely now the pink jersey is gone for Porte they can free VK up to have a poke at this? Porte himself is a worthy favourite but he's daft short. I like Dillier of BMC too, I've had a bit at 150/1 and 175/1 and he's my second biggest stake. He was only 2 mins down in the Worlds on a similar course and had a good prep on Thursday by having about 20k out in front on his own. I've had a few quid on Zakarin with VietcongBet at 13/2 win only as he nailed the Romandie TT. This extra distance is an unknown but he can clearly climb and ride in the wind - he looks very strong.
I've thrown a few each way quiddage at some other longshots who could go well - Ludvigsson 200/1, Inxausti 200/1, Siutsou 200/1 and Aru 150/1. No way I would be pricing Aru up at 150/1 if I was a bookie. That's probably his true price on form, but if there's anyone that's going to throw in a ridiculous time tomorrow he's our man.
I was looking at Kiryienka for this too. My only reservation was that he might conserve energy for tomorrows stage in support of Porte. The course should suit him and the climbing wont hurt him too much compared to the gc riders. Disappointed I missed the 26/1. Usually with the length and difficulty of this TT you would expect the gc riders to be in the mix for the stage win. I think Uran will be the best of the gc riders with Contador and Porte not too far behind.
I better grab Siutsou now too that MC has tipped him before I miss that price! I also agree with MC about Aru, it would be funny if he did a good TT tomorrow and despite the fact he looks like he could lose minutes, it wouldn't surprise me if he pulls one out. I think it will be an outstanding result for Aru if loses less than 1 minute.
I better grab Siutsou now too that MC has tipped him before I miss that price! I also agree with MC about Aru, it would be funny if he did a good TT tomorrow and despite the fact he looks like he could lose minutes, it wouldn't surprise me if he pulls one out. I think it will be an outstanding result for Aru if loses less than 1 minute.
I'm not one for backing short priced favourites but i actually think 11/4 for PORTE is quite generous. Can't see who beats him today? So for me rates a decent bet in this and though i'd like bigger, 11/4 is more than i thought he would be. He needs to gain as much time as possible just to get back in the top 10 on gc, he is the strongest tt rider here, and we know for a fact that Porte and Sky have targeted winning this stage from the off, so we can be sure they know every inch of this and i will be shocked if he doesn't win today.
His nearest challenger today could be his own team mate KONIG, a decent tt rider has apparently been working on improving this with sky and he also needs to gain as much time as possible to get in to the top 10 on gc. Have had a little of the 33/1 ew for him.
His nearest challenger today could be his own team mate KONIG, a decent tt rider has apparently been working on improving this with sky and he also needs to gain as much time as possible to get in to the top 10 on gc. Have had a little of the 33/1 ew for him.
I agree with both.My main favourites for TT are Porte and Uran, but their price is way too short to worth a bet. I took Kruijswijk @400, Landa @300 and Dillier @210 just for fun. Riders to watch: Jon Izaguirre, Konig and Wandewalle
Yeah, Vandewalle out climbed Betancur and others on the stage Intxausti won, could be a good shout.
Porte hurt his knee in the crash yesterday, dont know how bad though.
Porte hurt his knee in the crash yesterday, dont know how bad though.
Entirely on-board with HB here. Porte + Konig.
Good luck to all,
SP
Good luck to all,
SP
Could be some favorable conditions for the early starters.
Where can we see parcial times? Giro's website is a joke
Mihaylov sets fastest time of 1:20:32 - shows there could be some big old time gaps here.
Kiry fastest at first checkpoint. Rain coming down now though.
Yeah, rain can have a huge role here... But Kyrienka looks very strong.
I dont think this time from Kiryenka will hold... but its a nice effort. top 3 maybe
Porte has passed the 1st point but no time... dont understand why his odd has gone crazy
really strange, none of the last 25 riders in top 25 at the first time check...
wind and rain made a big diference... dont remember to see such a big diference for the favourites
@1,50 on kiryenka at this point seems huge... Contador is more than 1minute down with 25km to go
Contador down 51s with 10km to go and Kyrienka matched at @1,30. strange Giro this is...
Well done MC, excellent early tip of Vasil Kiryienka. Missed out on the early price but was able to get 15/1 in the end. Keep up the good work.
I've been out, so just watched this on delay.
Firstly, cracking tip MC, really happy to see you dig out such a nice price -- you deserve it mate, well done!
Secondly, fair play to Contador, he showed his form was there all along with that ride -- very solid, very powerful, in fact from the back he looked a bit like the Panzerwagon -- at least his legs did! He might have perhaps won that if he had gone out earlier because of the latter wind change, but the significant observation for me was how explosive he looked toward the end of the stage. That ride is Contador near his best, and whilst I didn't think he had it in him, he proved that he did over a tough course.
I'm very disappointed in Porte, not just because he was my pick, the favourite, and he failed badly -- but largely because he disrespected the Australian ITT Nationals jersey. I don't buy the injured knees story. As an Australian cyclist he is supposed to bleed on the road, and leave his guts there if in the Green and Gold colours, and he went out like a clown, and finished like a joker. Very hurtful to witness that!
I think the Kiryienka ITT Worlds result was the compelling data for this ride, nevertheless a highly impressive result over such a course.
Cheers,
SP
Firstly, cracking tip MC, really happy to see you dig out such a nice price -- you deserve it mate, well done!
Secondly, fair play to Contador, he showed his form was there all along with that ride -- very solid, very powerful, in fact from the back he looked a bit like the Panzerwagon -- at least his legs did! He might have perhaps won that if he had gone out earlier because of the latter wind change, but the significant observation for me was how explosive he looked toward the end of the stage. That ride is Contador near his best, and whilst I didn't think he had it in him, he proved that he did over a tough course.
I'm very disappointed in Porte, not just because he was my pick, the favourite, and he failed badly -- but largely because he disrespected the Australian ITT Nationals jersey. I don't buy the injured knees story. As an Australian cyclist he is supposed to bleed on the road, and leave his guts there if in the Green and Gold colours, and he went out like a clown, and finished like a joker. Very hurtful to witness that!
I think the Kiryienka ITT Worlds result was the compelling data for this ride, nevertheless a highly impressive result over such a course.
Cheers,
SP
just caught up with the stage on video just now..busy day y'day with the golf,cricket & boxing
respect MARYCHAIN with the tipping..hope u filled ur boots & u NUGGET
great ride from Contador
he'll have to 'die' in the mountains or have a bad crash (neither totally out of the equation)not to prevail now
respect MARYCHAIN with the tipping..hope u filled ur boots & u NUGGET
great ride from Contador
he'll have to 'die' in the mountains or have a bad crash (neither totally out of the equation)not to prevail now
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