Cycling
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Stage 5 » La Spezia › Abetone (152k)
Route
Profile
Abetone Climb
Another shortish stage and the first summit finish of the 2015 Giro d'Italia, and the first stage where we should see some changes in the GC, although nothing decisive for the big favourites. Although the Abetone is a significant climb, and it could end the Maglia Rosa hopes of anyone who is not on a good day, it is not long enough, high enough or steep enough to cause the real climbers any problems. It may allow us to see who is on form though. Abetone has been the finishing destination for Giro stages on 3 previous occasions, but the only time since the 1950s saw Francesco Casagrande win Stage 9 of the 2000 Giro.
Casagrande wins Stage 9 in 2000 at Abetone
Starting in yesterday's finish town of La Spezia, on the Eastern edge of Liguria, we head East and then North before turning back to the East into Tuscany and towards the Category 3 climb of Foce Carpinelli. The first 30km are very flat, but if we haven't seen an escape up to this point, the lower slopes of the Carpinelli should see the elastic snap. The peloton will now head South West, descending off the Foce Carpinelli and over the smaller, uncategorised climb of Barga. From here, the road drags ever upwards as we head towards the final climb of Abetone, which is 17km long, just under 1400m high and averages 5.4%. The first 4.5km are little more than false flat, however. The road then rises up and averages 8% for the next 7km. The steepest gradients of 10% are found during this section. The road then flattens off and the the last 4 or 5km don't rise above 5%. For this reason it is unlikely that the big GC favourites will burn a candle attacking here. Someone not considered a danger could well slip away and win the stage, or we could see a sprint from a select group.
Abetone sees the finish of Stage 5 of the Giro d'Italia. Will the flatter finish enable someone like a punchier rider like Diego Ulissi to snatch a stage win?
Route
Profile
Abetone Climb
Another shortish stage and the first summit finish of the 2015 Giro d'Italia, and the first stage where we should see some changes in the GC, although nothing decisive for the big favourites. Although the Abetone is a significant climb, and it could end the Maglia Rosa hopes of anyone who is not on a good day, it is not long enough, high enough or steep enough to cause the real climbers any problems. It may allow us to see who is on form though. Abetone has been the finishing destination for Giro stages on 3 previous occasions, but the only time since the 1950s saw Francesco Casagrande win Stage 9 of the 2000 Giro.
Casagrande wins Stage 9 in 2000 at Abetone
Starting in yesterday's finish town of La Spezia, on the Eastern edge of Liguria, we head East and then North before turning back to the East into Tuscany and towards the Category 3 climb of Foce Carpinelli. The first 30km are very flat, but if we haven't seen an escape up to this point, the lower slopes of the Carpinelli should see the elastic snap. The peloton will now head South West, descending off the Foce Carpinelli and over the smaller, uncategorised climb of Barga. From here, the road drags ever upwards as we head towards the final climb of Abetone, which is 17km long, just under 1400m high and averages 5.4%. The first 4.5km are little more than false flat, however. The road then rises up and averages 8% for the next 7km. The steepest gradients of 10% are found during this section. The road then flattens off and the the last 4 or 5km don't rise above 5%. For this reason it is unlikely that the big GC favourites will burn a candle attacking here. Someone not considered a danger could well slip away and win the stage, or we could see a sprint from a select group.
Abetone sees the finish of Stage 5 of the Giro d'Italia. Will the flatter finish enable someone like a punchier rider like Diego Ulissi to snatch a stage win?
Show More
Didn't have any strong feelings on the last 2 stages so no bets, but what superb stages they have been to watch, particularly todays. Have been very surprised at the work done by first Tinkoff yestrday and early today, then Astana later on today, wasn't expecting that at all. If anything the tema i was expecting to be attacking this week was Sky after losing time in the TTT.
Which brings me on to my bet for tomorrow Richie Porte 10/1 (b365 has now just been cut to 7/1, not that I had that much on!). Really think this final climb to Abetone is right up his street and can see Sky being the latest gc team to really do some serious pulling on the front and drill it up this. Obviously Astana looked very strong today and really asked some serious questions but can they do that 2 days running i doubt it. Team Sky actually had all 5 of there main climbers finish in the top 25 today so it is an indication that they are in decent shape, and i really expect them to try something tomorrow and Porte to try and get back the time he lost on stage 1.
Which brings me on to my bet for tomorrow Richie Porte 10/1 (b365 has now just been cut to 7/1, not that I had that much on!). Really think this final climb to Abetone is right up his street and can see Sky being the latest gc team to really do some serious pulling on the front and drill it up this. Obviously Astana looked very strong today and really asked some serious questions but can they do that 2 days running i doubt it. Team Sky actually had all 5 of there main climbers finish in the top 25 today so it is an indication that they are in decent shape, and i really expect them to try something tomorrow and Porte to try and get back the time he lost on stage 1.
Not had one bet yet in this Giro, but after yesterday am I alone in thinking that they might well let the break go?
i am getting an early post in tonight after whilst i am still buzzing after todays stage and looking forward to another excellent one tomorrow.
Logic says the BIG 3 will dominate tomorrows finish but @ around 5/1 6/1 7/1 i wont be getting involved.
As usual i am looking for some value although there are only a few prices available as i post.
I thought Cobrelli had a tremendous race today and probably put in too much effort to win tomorrow.My main bet tomorrow is on Eduardo Zardini who finished only 5minutes down yesterday and is high up on the mountains classification so should be looking for points. He is nearly 7 Mins down overall so no threat to the GC boys. The reason this young lad has stuck in my head is from his brilliant win in last years Tour of Britain on the incredibly demanding Tumble where he beat quite a quality field. He is terrific value @ 80/1.
I will look further overnight and post again in the morning
Logic says the BIG 3 will dominate tomorrows finish but @ around 5/1 6/1 7/1 i wont be getting involved.
As usual i am looking for some value although there are only a few prices available as i post.
I thought Cobrelli had a tremendous race today and probably put in too much effort to win tomorrow.My main bet tomorrow is on Eduardo Zardini who finished only 5minutes down yesterday and is high up on the mountains classification so should be looking for points. He is nearly 7 Mins down overall so no threat to the GC boys. The reason this young lad has stuck in my head is from his brilliant win in last years Tour of Britain on the incredibly demanding Tumble where he beat quite a quality field. He is terrific value @ 80/1.
I will look further overnight and post again in the morning
Break getting home has to be considered after yesterday
I agree with Happybacker here, surely it is Sky's turn now to ride on the front. Siutsou, Kiryenka, Konig and Nieve to put the hurt on the peleton on that final climb.
Also can't see Aru being anything other than aggressive here after how he has ridden the first 4 stages and obviously his team is climbing really well.
Not sure about a break here with the mood the top teams are in, we had a really strong break get over 10 minutes lead yesterday and still all bar one escapee was caught. The stage is relatively easy until the final climb and it should be easier to control the break. Then again maybe Astana will be a little tired from yesterday and the big teams will be looking for an easier ride in the first part of the stage before upping the tempo on the final climb.
Also can't see Aru being anything other than aggressive here after how he has ridden the first 4 stages and obviously his team is climbing really well.
Not sure about a break here with the mood the top teams are in, we had a really strong break get over 10 minutes lead yesterday and still all bar one escapee was caught. The stage is relatively easy until the final climb and it should be easier to control the break. Then again maybe Astana will be a little tired from yesterday and the big teams will be looking for an easier ride in the first part of the stage before upping the tempo on the final climb.
Thought this could be a stage for Ryder Hesjedal.......appeals at the prices
Main tactic is to go with in-play bets today, Dnaielson, Elissonde & Chavanel
Danielson, Elissonde & Chavanel micro bets before the start
Be interesting to see what Uran can do today, he needs to make time back now at some stage. Normally he's the fastest finisher of the GC guys on a flattish run-in like today but he looked isolated and didn't have the legs to stay with the moves today.
I am glad someone brought up Uran because didnt he start badly last year and everybody wrote him off quickly only for him to come straight back into the fold on the first mountain stage. His GC price has drifted to 17/1 on PP and is 1/4 1,2,3. This makes him over 4/1 to have a top 3 finish. Ok on paper he is behind the main 3 guys but any one of them could have a bad day as Porte has before and we know that Uran can time trial. I am gonna take some of that 17/1 e/w before todays stage.
I tend to think that a breakaway won't necessarily make it. The teams in this year's Giro are here to race, we've witnessed that both from TCS and AST with respect to the teams containing principals, and with TFR for Nizzolo in the Points competition. Moreover, it's another short stage, the weather will be perfect for riding, and the evidence suggests a fast pace by TCS to keep control of AST and SKY when they finally reach the final climb, specifically the short 10% middle part. I tend to think TCS won't want to witness nearly the complete AST outfit waiting to launch Aru or having Porte buying his time on the back. An easy ride by the peloton at this hyper point of the race, opens the door for fisticuffs by the principals on the middle 10% section of the final climb.
TCS, with the virtual leader, have to defend today and the best defence is a highly-paced offence. If that's the case, it suggests that the breakaways will require a massive gap -- as nugget points out, even a good group with a big gap made hard work of it on yesterday's stage, and if there are indeed fisticuffs between the GC guys than I think anyone in the break will get bruised as a direct result of the accelerations in the attacks.
I think CM's Zardini can be a likely proposition for today, although I didn't see his ride in Britain, nevertheless he had a very good build-up for the Giro and being with BAR means it's highly likely that he'll be going up the road, however if he is in the mix it means he'll be in the breakaway, and I don't think he'll hang on.
Alberto Contador As the virtual leader on the road and with AST giving strong indications with Aru, I think Bertie has to build on his lead otherwise he'll look weak. He appeared strong on the final climb yesterday, we know he can handle the pressure, and it's time for him to confirm his team's belief in his chances for the win. It appears as if he'll test himself today, and at around 9s on here, I think that's value, especially if the breakaway is small and/or the gap is small. If the pace comes on and it looks close between the peloton approaching the final climb and the breakaway, he'll be trading shorter, primarily as he has shortened from his 13/2 opening across most boards and therefore there is firm interest in his prospects. Giving good indications of a strong performance. One of the main contenders. Watch closely.
Good luck to all,
SP
TCS, with the virtual leader, have to defend today and the best defence is a highly-paced offence. If that's the case, it suggests that the breakaways will require a massive gap -- as nugget points out, even a good group with a big gap made hard work of it on yesterday's stage, and if there are indeed fisticuffs between the GC guys than I think anyone in the break will get bruised as a direct result of the accelerations in the attacks.
I think CM's Zardini can be a likely proposition for today, although I didn't see his ride in Britain, nevertheless he had a very good build-up for the Giro and being with BAR means it's highly likely that he'll be going up the road, however if he is in the mix it means he'll be in the breakaway, and I don't think he'll hang on.
Alberto Contador As the virtual leader on the road and with AST giving strong indications with Aru, I think Bertie has to build on his lead otherwise he'll look weak. He appeared strong on the final climb yesterday, we know he can handle the pressure, and it's time for him to confirm his team's belief in his chances for the win. It appears as if he'll test himself today, and at around 9s on here, I think that's value, especially if the breakaway is small and/or the gap is small. If the pace comes on and it looks close between the peloton approaching the final climb and the breakaway, he'll be trading shorter, primarily as he has shortened from his 13/2 opening across most boards and therefore there is firm interest in his prospects. Giving good indications of a strong performance. One of the main contenders. Watch closely.
Good luck to all,
SP
Uran appears to be on a different form trajectory to that of last year, imo. Last year, he was building form into the Giro and through its early part, and this year he has come into the Giro after his peak, and is showing that he doesn't have the legs.
I think the finale is too shallow for Bertie to win this stage even if the GC guys make it
Fair play to Betfair - in play sportsbook market (with each way) on this stage as well as the exchange market
Breakaway has this unless something exceptional happens on the climb.
Transponders are all over the place again. 10 mins down to 8 mins back up to 9 mins 30. Best to do your own timing on these groups in this race if you want to rely on timing for your bets.
The peloton got to the bottom of the Abertone climb 5'45 behind, and the break has 14'5km to go with the peloton at 17'3.
Flattens out with about 4.5km to go, there's one more ramp at 2.5km to go for about 500m and then its about 4-5% to the end
but Polanc might make it
Phew! 2nd. Nice but could have been so much nicer. Good ride by Polanc and another amazing day at the Giro! 
Fisticuffs aplenty as predicted, however Polanc proved he doesn't bruise easily. Nevertheless, tactical predictions at ante-post are not recorded as wins if bets are not landed, and for that one aspect being correct in terms of Bertie testing himself, he just didn't win.
Good ride by Polanc since there came a finely balanced point -- there were a couple I think -- between the peloton initially and then the principals in combat and Polanc out in the lead, where Polanc had to start digging to hold on, and he showed that he could ruin himself and prevent from hitting the wall with full force and losing the stage.
The accelerations came from the principals in combat and the gap came down swiftly as expected, but even if it was of the destructive variety, which it wasn't, I think Polanc still had some time in-hand because of his impressive suffering exhibition. I think this is qualified by the group of three closing Chavanel on the line. Having said that, and I'm glad to observe that MC landed an impressive place bet with Chavanel, it was not surprising that Chavanel didn't win from that company. His attacks to hurt those with him were bully-boy tactics from a veteran attempting to break spirits and minds of the young and uninitiated and less powerful, and once that failed he had to pay the price for such hurt which came back full-circle to him.
It looks like Polanc has had about two to three fair performances on very similar stages in the past, and whilst his light frame was perfectly suited to the 10% gradient portion in the middle, the most difficult part, it was him pushing a big gear on the less steep parts toward the end which was surprising -- amazing what the smell of victory can do to riders who ride with heart. He has been on my radar for some time, but never made a short list. He has heart, but not nearly as impressive as Formolo, imo.
On Uran: it may not be his form trajectory but a head cold which has caused him to fall out of calculations, entirely now, sadly.
I think Flecha on the bike is fine, but he comes across as a fruitcake variety of clown in the pre + post shows.
Not my cup of tea!
Cheers,
SP
Good ride by Polanc since there came a finely balanced point -- there were a couple I think -- between the peloton initially and then the principals in combat and Polanc out in the lead, where Polanc had to start digging to hold on, and he showed that he could ruin himself and prevent from hitting the wall with full force and losing the stage.
The accelerations came from the principals in combat and the gap came down swiftly as expected, but even if it was of the destructive variety, which it wasn't, I think Polanc still had some time in-hand because of his impressive suffering exhibition. I think this is qualified by the group of three closing Chavanel on the line. Having said that, and I'm glad to observe that MC landed an impressive place bet with Chavanel, it was not surprising that Chavanel didn't win from that company. His attacks to hurt those with him were bully-boy tactics from a veteran attempting to break spirits and minds of the young and uninitiated and less powerful, and once that failed he had to pay the price for such hurt which came back full-circle to him.
It looks like Polanc has had about two to three fair performances on very similar stages in the past, and whilst his light frame was perfectly suited to the 10% gradient portion in the middle, the most difficult part, it was him pushing a big gear on the less steep parts toward the end which was surprising -- amazing what the smell of victory can do to riders who ride with heart. He has been on my radar for some time, but never made a short list. He has heart, but not nearly as impressive as Formolo, imo.
On Uran: it may not be his form trajectory but a head cold which has caused him to fall out of calculations, entirely now, sadly.
I think Flecha on the bike is fine, but he comes across as a fruitcake variety of clown in the pre + post shows.
Not my cup of tea! Cheers,
SP
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539