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Stage 3 » Rapallo › Sestri Levante (136k)
We move slightly further East from Genoa along the Ligurian Coast to the town of Lapallo on the Tigullio Gulf. The Castillo del Mare (Castle of the Sea) which is right smack in the harbour will provide the backdrop for the start of stage 3. Visitors will want to take the cable car or tourist coach to Nostra Signora di Montallegro (Our Lady of Montallegro) up in the hills, which gives amazing views over the town and coast. The route takes us West at first along the coast back towards Genoa before turning inland and into the hills. We loop back around and come back South to the coast and finish in the town of Sestri Levante.
Sestri Levante was the finishing town for a Stage in 2012 won by Lars Sitting Bak when he was the strongest from a breakaway group that managed to stay out. That was 12 stages in to that Giro however, and I would say the chances of that happening again are remote at this early stage where sprinters' teams are strong and jerseys are still up for grabs. We have two catergorised climbs, a Cat 3 and a Cat 2, although there are several uncategorised climbs. Whoever was first over Sunday's sole climb and has the climbers jersey is bound to try and penetrate the morning break but the bigger prize will be the stage. Although this is classed as a medium mountain stage and there certainly is a lot of climbing miles in this stage the last 43.5km are all downhill and then flat and this should end in a bunch sprint.
Looking at the finishing kilometres it is relatively simple and should ensure a fair sprint from whoever got over the climbs or made it back. The last major turn comes with 7km to go, a sharp left that brings the riders onto Via Aurelia. This is a flat, seafront road with some slight undulations. They go through a rockfall protection tunnel at 2km which is 500m long, there is then a short descent which ends with 1200m to go. They go over one roundabout at 850m where you would imagine positioning would be crucial, but the home straight on viale Guiseppe Mazzini is a decent road that should enable a proper lead out - 850m long, flat, asphalt and 6.5m wide.
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We move slightly further East from Genoa along the Ligurian Coast to the town of Lapallo on the Tigullio Gulf. The Castillo del Mare (Castle of the Sea) which is right smack in the harbour will provide the backdrop for the start of stage 3. Visitors will want to take the cable car or tourist coach to Nostra Signora di Montallegro (Our Lady of Montallegro) up in the hills, which gives amazing views over the town and coast. The route takes us West at first along the coast back towards Genoa before turning inland and into the hills. We loop back around and come back South to the coast and finish in the town of Sestri Levante.
Sestri Levante was the finishing town for a Stage in 2012 won by Lars Sitting Bak when he was the strongest from a breakaway group that managed to stay out. That was 12 stages in to that Giro however, and I would say the chances of that happening again are remote at this early stage where sprinters' teams are strong and jerseys are still up for grabs. We have two catergorised climbs, a Cat 3 and a Cat 2, although there are several uncategorised climbs. Whoever was first over Sunday's sole climb and has the climbers jersey is bound to try and penetrate the morning break but the bigger prize will be the stage. Although this is classed as a medium mountain stage and there certainly is a lot of climbing miles in this stage the last 43.5km are all downhill and then flat and this should end in a bunch sprint.
Looking at the finishing kilometres it is relatively simple and should ensure a fair sprint from whoever got over the climbs or made it back. The last major turn comes with 7km to go, a sharp left that brings the riders onto Via Aurelia. This is a flat, seafront road with some slight undulations. They go through a rockfall protection tunnel at 2km which is 500m long, there is then a short descent which ends with 1200m to go. They go over one roundabout at 850m where you would imagine positioning would be crucial, but the home straight on viale Guiseppe Mazzini is a decent road that should enable a proper lead out - 850m long, flat, asphalt and 6.5m wide.
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Replies: 12
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Bling might be in pink by the end of Stage 3
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Or even the start...
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Do the dropped sprinters get back on here? It's probably the key to finding the winner of this stage.
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I accept that the "sprinters' teams are strong and jerseys are still up for grabs" however this is a very short stage at only 136kms -- the second shortest of the conventional stages in this year's race in fact, and a very short stage by WT standards also, and I therefore firmly believe that a half-decent breakaway group combining well together should build a very big lead in next to no time as the peloton is weighed-down by teams shepherding sprinters who will be going uphill for much of the day, and given the nervous nature within the peloton evident in yesterday's stage -- the pace may not be ramped-up in full over some of the tricky sections in the downhill portion of the race unfolding to the finish. Once the breakaway hit the coast they may experience a headwind off the sea, however it is forecast to be only slight, and unless it's just a solo breakaway it shouldn't have much of an impact -- it'll likely be close but I think they'll find enough to just hold on.
It obviously depends on who is in the breakaway and the dynamics of it as to the question of who will win, and I don't really want to go down the road of getting into a guessing game at ante-post, preferring to analyse the situation in IR, but there are two who look like likely propositions. 1/8* Maciej Paterski As a Polish rider he made -- what seemed -- an unusual move from the WT when riding for CAN, to the PCT of CCC for the 2014 season. He did so in order to give the Polish team the much-needed experience and talent to gain some good results. And he has done precisely that, moreover it appears that the move has also had a beneficial impact on his career inspiring him into a slew of top results and exhibitions of commanding and attacking riding. For instance, his last start ride he dominated the Tour of Croatia with two stage wins and a 2nd place finish, and he won the GC by over a minute. Prior to that in the Ardennes, he had two top-10s in the Brabant Arrow and AGR. CCC's ambition is a stage win and it's expected that they'll be aiming to get into the breakaway whenever possible, and given Paterski's strength he'll likely be the one selected to give it a go on this stage. Warrants respect in any breakaway. 1/16* Enrico Battaglin BAR are expected to be involved in the breakaways on home soil, giving their sponsors prominent exposure in front of the cameras. Battaglin hasn't really come close to winning this season and he has been in indifferent form, however he has two stage wins in the Giro in the past two years, and given his experience it's likely he'll be selected to get into the break. 40/1 Lads is short, should be 150/1. Take on trust. Good luck to all, SP |
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Lets not beat about the bush here. this is probably the hardest stage to predict on this entire tour and there will be many conflicting opinions. Will a break stay away will it be a solo or sprint finish? After some losses for people yesterday a few may be allowed a stage win to protect leaders and jerseys. This is a minefield so stakes must be nil or at a minimum just for a minor interest.
I formulated my opinion last night and it does follow SP very closely A break should get a good lead and i have a feeling that someone may be able to solo away from that break and hold on forthe long run in into Sestri Levante. OGE will have to do all the chasing to protect the Maglia Rosa and so lots of teams will have riders in the break and other teams will just be protecting their leaders but it will be a very pacy stage and as we saw from yesterday the riders are always incredibly nervous during the first few stages of these GCs til it settle downs a bit so we can expect a few spills too. Anyway i am only putting up two riders i like in the hope they do well. Bert De Backer hopefully is not too bad after his fall yesterday but after losing 3m 20s he is no threat to the leaders so may be allowed to get into a break if fresh enough and after doing so well from a similiar position in the Tour Of Britain , he could solo away again. On another thread i started before the Giro i put up Matiej Paterski as a good rider to follow and this could be his stage too. I see Sp selected him too so lets hope he does well. However he gets on today i will continue to follow his development. A wide open race argument could be made for a bunch sprint finish but good luck to everyone with your selections. It should be fast and furious and all credit to the Giro for not starting with a week of flat sprinter stages. |
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I've taken Modolo and Battaglin here, 33/1 and 40/1 but agree that practically anything could happen here. It's a long way from the top of the last climb to the end. Tempted by Grepiel too.
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I'm just hoping something really silly doesn't happen, and OGE are permitted to put someone like Weening or Clarke into the break for the purposes of sitting back and putting other teams to the task of chasing it down. Won't be taking anymore at ante-post, and I certainly hope my suggestions have been seen as minimal staking -- agree with CM that stakes should be minimal at ante-post at such an early point of the race -- since I think that until we get more evidence with the breakaway dynamics it's a lottery to pick the correct rider to make the breakaway. I just put a line under riders who finished worse than position 140 in yesterday's stage, thinking that they would've been involved in the crashes in one way or another, but there's still four to six riders who are prime candidates for attempting an attack, but more data is required at this point.
The way I see it; the remaining distance from the top of the last climb, the 43.5kms you've stated MC, is more like 20-28kms in terms of energy expenditure since it is such a short stage. I mean, 43.5kms is too long for a breakaway on a stage totalling some 180kms, I agree, but this is only 136kms, that's like a short PCT stage. Anyway, we'll see, but am expecting a breakaway numbering 8-12 riders, with teams involved that are looking to get advertising exposure or those that are here strictly for stage wins. Will be surprised if every rider and his dog are not attempting to get into this breakaway. |
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Racing Post write up today by Adam Scriven, no selection given
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Does Tinkov realise this isn't a one-week tour? Odd tactics.
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Bling wins in pink
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Interesting stage, which whilst didn't finish in a breakaway as I had predicted, nevertheless provided a large amount of data on which a kind of foundation might be built for the unfolding race in terms of tactical scenarios, nuances, and dynamics.
Whilst Paterski and a host of other fancied riders made the breakaway, including to BAR riders but not Battaglin, the main fear I had in relation to OGE inserting their own riders in the breakaway pretty-much secured a selective bunch sprint, and naturally a stage win for them with Bling, as the sprinters failed to keep pace up the climb, and not just the sprinters as Henao surpisingly showed whilst going backwards. Having Clarke and Chaves up ahead meant that OGE did not have to do any work, and whilst TCS had Boaro there also, they nevertheless did all of the work by essentially riding as the virtual leader with Contador, keeping him out of trouble, flexing their own muscle strength, and controlling the race by keeping the pace high and preventing any attacks by GC opponents, which are now one less rider after Pozzovivo's sickening end to the race. Once Weening came to assist TCS on the front, at which point Chaves was still combining in the breakaway, OGE clearly announced their confidence in Bling bringing the goods with a win, but I believe even this might have been included in an ante-post Plan B with a Bling banker option. So as I advanced in the Points Classification write-up, Bling confirms that he can now be identified as a Peter Sagan type of rider, since Sagan did a similar thing in the TdF a couple of years ago, with this forum's consensus and winning outcome. Couple of other things which might be expanded upon, but I'll raise those on the appropriate thread. Cheers, SP |