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Will the flat run-in to Genoa in Stage 2 be perfect for the Gorilla?
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The flat run-in will certainly be perfect for the Gorilla since as an outright sprinter he prefers his finishes to be flat. Whether he will finish in 1st place across the line is another question, though. Nevertheless, I do think he can have a perfect result by winning this stage, since he is the strongest sprinter here, had a good ride in the TTT, has been aimed for this by being withdrawn from his last start at the Tour of Turkey after winning stage 4, and he'll have a good train with a minimum of four riders devoted to getting him into a strong position in the finale. 5/2 (various) W/O is too short though, so I'll risk waiting for a better price.
Good luck to all, SP |
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I'm fairly happy to take the 5/2 here on Andre Greipel. Medium size bet only as it's hardly a massive rick but I think the sprint field is fairly weak here. Bling is improving but would prefer some gradient. Viviani is fast but just doesn't win enough and will probably have to fight for wheels. I don't think there is another sprinter here that's anywhere near fast enough to worry Greipel with his full train like he should have here. Obviously anything can happen in a bunch sprint but the last 1km are flat and straight and this should be perfect for him and Lotto.
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Greipel is too short here for me. Yes he deserves to be favourite for the stage but i really dont think he has won as often as he should have done and often finds a reason to get beaten.
After the TTT yesterday i can see Sky having had an overnight bollocking for their performance, yes i admit that this may not be a focus day for them but they wont want another bad day and this is a good opportunity for them to support their one sprinter to put him into a decent position for him to get onto the wheels of the other teams leadout trains. I quite like the chances of Viviani here @ 6/1 with Joes Nizzolo should also finish very high up in a large bunch sprint finish for Trek @ 7/1 and i am taking a wild punt for small stakes each way on a rider with a good early record in the Giro who has switched teams away from AG2R to Androni-Sidermec and that is Davide Appollonio. Last year he was 9th on the stage into Belfast and on the 3rd stage into Dublin he was 4th, both times involved in the sprint. Adopting the system used by others on here (hope you havent copywritten it) *** Viviani 6/1 ** Zizzoli 7/1 * Appollonio 150/1 e/w |
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Have backed Matthews at 12/1 ew for today, just think its a big price. IF all goes to plan for Greipel then unlikely he will beat him but as he really wants the maglia rosa tonight he should be right there and be 2nd or 3rd at least, and if anything were to happen to Greipel i'd fancy him to have a great chance of winning.
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Make that 14/1 ew!
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Matthews 14/1
Lobato 19/1 Hoffland 20/1 Hoping for a trickier finish than it appears on paper. |
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I've also had a little each way play on Hofland at 25/1, but I do think Greipel should take this down. The run-in is pretty easy, fairly flat and not too many turns. The last corner is at 1km and the straight isnice and wide so we should see the trains to full effect.
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No improvement in the Gorilla's price, actually he's now 11/5, so would want to see him first before taking such a price. Bling is now into 16/1 with Lads, but have taken him at 14/1 with PP. I accept that he's too big, I think value was still with him at 11/1, but 14/1 makes smart play, and on E/W basis I expect him to be right there in the finish. OGE are going to be riding with good confidence and they'll want to give Bling every opportunity of winning here -- easy call to make. Small stakes for now as there will be plenty of opportunities later for more confident stage bets.
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Yep, I agree, we should see a straightforward finish ending in a bunch sprint.
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Matthews is 1/8 with PP to be the Maglia Rosa after todays stage
There is a Racing Post write up today by Adrian Humphries but he just details updates on prices overall after Stage 1 and gives prices for Stage 2 without commenting further or giving a selection |
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marychain1 04 May 15 09:55
Can see Orica winning the TTT, and Bling adding another leaders jersey to the collection by either winning or a having prominent finish on Stage 2 and then keeping it until at least Stage 5 and possibly Stage 8. The RP were 6 days late with that scoop |
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After seeing it on tv, this one looks like a Tom Boonen type of finish
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Anyone hear what they said there, some journalist asked the four GC principles to wish good luck to the other GC guys. Richie Porte said "good luck guys" his old team mate at Sky Rigoberto Uran said "¡Buena suerte!" Fabio Aru was happy to join in as well and said "buona fortuna" to the other three.
Bertie refused. |
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*CRASH* Both Pelucci and Haussler down for IAM Cycling as well as Chavanel. Atapuma might have been down for BMC. Kangert down for Astana. Weening for Orica.
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*CRASH* Poor old Haussler down again. Belkov down as well. Katusha, Trek and BMC involved as well.
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*CRASH* Poor old Haussler down again. Belkov down as well. Katusha, Trek and BMC involved as well.
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Or rather Belkov from Katusha, with Trek and BMC involved as well.
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Several bunches on the road. Ag2r caught out. Lampre caught out.
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Viviani!
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Hofland 2nd, Griepel 3rd
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Nizzolo 4th maybe?
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Hurrah, took the 8.4 on here
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Greipel seemed to go too early there
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Nizzollo 6th even Appollonio 8th
good each way on Hofland MC |
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Thought he was going to take it for a minute there. Did Ag2r get back in the bunch?
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Nice one CM, very solid analysis there mate -- much of SKY were involved for Viviani and you have to think that they did have the conversation you suggested they would after yesterday's performance, to have been involved to such a degree. Also shows what a clown JA Flecha is, in the pre-show, by suggesting that Viviani wouldn't get any support from the team because they would be protecting Porte.
I'm not sure the Gorilla went too early, I think he certainly went early by laying down such a deep furrow, but it was in order to get on terms with the head of the arrow because he was caught out of position, by which time he had spent himself, and Hofland,who looked like the winner, and Viviani the actual winner, had the timed kick which works best in such a bunch scenario. Bling was there way too early and you could tell he wasn't drifting behind his lead-out but was just working way too much. Nice work on Hofland MC, best pick in terms of value, but I think CM's analysis is definitely something the forum might have done well to follow. I mean, even if Viviani got pipped on the line -- there was SKY all lined-up working for him! On the stage; I don't know what to make of the missing confirmation that Bling would be picking up sprint points with OGE leading him out -- is it that OGE were as confused by the points distribution as the comms, or are they going to hold Bling back on these few flat stages and wait to see how his position in that competition develops, before committing fully? TFR certainly had no such confusion, and Nizzolo appears highly motivated there. AG2r did not get back on, but I think you know that already. |
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Thought the Hof was home. Viviani well positioned in the sprint for once.
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Betancur of ag2r finished in the front group.
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People that got caught out include Pozzovivo, Szmyd, Niemiec and Atapuma who all lost 1.09
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