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Had a little dabble on Rebellin and Bilbao for tomorrow, 14/1 and 33/1. Decent looking stage tomorrow, loads of climbing at the end.
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Rebellin wins, 14/1
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This stage 5 looks like a bunch sprint judging by a glance at the profile and its certainly priced up like that with Cavendish 10/11 and Gorilla 7/2 after his stage win yesterday. I'd say in a stright match bet that is about right, although I don't want to back Cavendish that short. It looks to me like there is a little kick up at the end. I can't find any real details about it to see whether it is a lup of any significance but I'll take a little chance on Sonny Colbrelli and Enrico Battaglin, both at 66/1. Just small bets to give me someone to watch this morning.
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Some great commentary in the bunch sprint yesterday.
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Carlton Kirby even invented a new word there, "several riders have been squozen out"
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Modolo takes it. Don't think Etixx realised how much climbing was involved there. They seemed to change plan halfway through and I think Cav said no halfway through the sprint and then Boonen tried to chase it down.
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My two not on the scene. Think Bardiani just did to much work today. Be interesting to see whether Durasek or anyone else can put some time into Rebellin on the summit finish.
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Matt Rendell's language skills are astonishing
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Tomorrow is a weird enough stage isn't it? With the state the race is in you might think it would suit a breakaway - after all you can't see Polkowice controlling the race all day - but then the stage is just so flat. There's hardly a bump in the road for the first 160 km before a Cat 3, a descent and a Cat 1. Even the Cat 1 isn't even that much of a climb. As far as I can tell its about 10% for 3 miles so it should be a test but not cause massive gaps. I can't have Rebellin as favourite for the stage though. His biggest concern will be to mark the men who can threaten his overall lead. I would think that he will be happy to stay on wheels. As he's 9/4 there should be some value elsewhere. I'll take Eduardo Sepulveda of Bretagne Seche at 5/1.
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Typical. Backed Bilbao for Stage 1 and outright and he wins today instead. And Rebellin loses the jersey
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