*LIÈGE–BASTOGNE–LIÈGE* Sunday 26th April

Anyone spot the "deliberate" mistake?

only PP have this priced up at the moment with Valverde @ 11/4, he could be even shorter after todays performance
current form seems so important now in these races though not many can boast the number of podium finishes the poodle haired wonder achieves year on year.

the two big priced riders i will be looking for early prices on are Warren Barguil and Ben Hermans currently 125/1 and 150/1 respectively but hopefully someone will go larger over the next few days

Stuck my neck out early this week , good luck with your picks guys

Rodriguez talking after Fleche Wallone on wednesday.

"The finish climb scenario was not like I wanted it to be. I felt good but I was blocked a bit at my favorite distance to the finish to attack. It was also an extremely fast ascent of the Mur. In the end I was at a good position but with that speed there was no way to attack any more. When I saw Valverde going at 100 meters from the finish I knew it was over. The good thing is that my legs really felt very well. I need to thank all of my Katusha teammates for their support all day long. Sunday will be another race. Now already I am very motivated for Liège,"

I don't know if Dan Martin outsmarted Rodriguez in the 2013 edition I just think he was too strong.  Cannondale haven't ruled Martin out yet and he is still 4th fav around 10-1.  Probably an in-play wait and see bet maybe.

Sorry swerve that ffs. Brain freeze. I was looking at Trek

Kwiatowsk obviously does race here, and as SP says he does have good support, including the super-impressive climbing domestique Gianluca Brambilla. The world champ finished on the same time as Gerrans and Valverde (and Caruso, who nearly made it all the way from a late break) last year.

Think you're right to mention the extra climbs and bad weather as well, could make this much more select.

One thing is for certain, Nibali will attack. 
Also Purito didn't lose because he got outsmarted.  Purito attacked out of the lead group with about 1.3km to go and got a gap.  Purito still led with under 1km to go. Martin, Scarponi, Betancur and Valverde were the chasers.  Martin dropped the latter three and proceeded to bridge the gap to Rodriguez.  He caught Rodriguez with 300-400m to go, at this stage Rodriguez is spent and Martin knows he has him covered, he takes one big look over the shoulder to make sure Valverde and Betancur aren't coming back, then he put Purito away with one final inevitable attack.  Rodriguez was spent, he played his card with that final attack, he was all in, it's just that he was caught and passed at the end of 250km by the stronger rider.

Kwiatkowski finished 5th and 3rd at Fleche Wallone in 2013 and 2014 so I don't know what you're on about there with "unsuitable terrain".  Not contesting the Fleche finish on wednesday might be a smart move however as it might mean he is that little bit fresher for the more prestigious prize on sunday.

i have put up a couple of outsiders earlier in the week very speculatively and although Valverde is the obvious choice he is no value.

Now that Astana have been given yet another get out of jail free cardthey could ride with a little more freedom having no pressure on their shoulders. I believe that it has been confirmed that Nibali will skip the Giro. having been so close in 2012 to a drugged winner he has learned from his experience here since. He should have excellent team support from LL Sanchez who showed good form in a break with Visconti last week and also Fuglsang who is also strong and his lieutenant Scarponi. Nibs must be there about at the finish and @ 14/1 looks a decent bet.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/liege-bastogne-liege-almost-an-obsession-for-nibali

Another in form rider who seems to have slipped under the radar for this race is Domenico Pozzovivo. He is having a great week in the Trentino and was only 3 seconds behind the winners last year after going perhaps a little early.He also has quite a strong team in support. Surprisingly he is available @ 33/1 and is well worth a punt.

I expect good performances from perennial top 20 finishers here, Gasparotto, Caruso and Nocentini at larger odds but they seldom have what it takes at the finish to make the podium so cannot seriously be backed.

The other great thing about this race is the return or Europcar who have been given a wild card for this race. god knows why they were overlooked for Amstel and Fleche, obviously the envelopes did not find the right pockets. Could Rolland sieze the opportunity @ 66/1?

Anyway looking forward to another exciting Sunday.
Good luck all

I found it strange at the time being so far out,apparently he was trying to bridge across to Diego Rosa though Nibali himself says he was riding for Jacob Fuglsang. Later attacking at the bottom of the Cauberg he was never going to get the help he probably needed as Dan Martin was going to save himself and he was also with Simon Clarke who is another very strong rider. To some extent it could be said that he disappointed as a result in this race however it could also be said that this race was not his focus, he had a good test of his legs and the only way he is going to win a one day classic is by a solo attack and at least he felt good about his form and legs to give it a go. I hope he has a major dig on Saint Nicolas and can hold on.

Valverde doesn't like bad weather from what I can remember but if no one backs him because his odds are too short he'll probably win.  Astana have a strong team and should have an interest in making the race hard so I would expect attacks from Nibali and an in-form (17th amstel 9th fleche) Fuglsang.  Nibali goes well in the rain as does Purito from what I can remember.  Nibali will take risks on the descents like he did when he crashed late in the race at the rainy 2013 world champs.  Interestingly it was Costa who caught and passed a fading Purito in the final km who won the rainbow jersey that day with Valverde 3rd.

Ag2r have a strong team with Bardet and Pozzovivo their main chances.  Pozzovivo has shortened in the market after his stage win in trentino, he also needs a hard race and needs to arrive solo but does seem in good form.
Lotto-Soudal have a few cards to play and the super impressive Wellens would be a good shout at around 50-1.  They also bring Vanendert and the versatile Gallopin who has 9 top 10's including 6 top 5's this year already.
Other riders who might enjoy a harder race-  Kelderman, was active at amstel and did a top 10 at fleche.  Kreuziger, lightly raced targeting Liege, 14th amstel 11th fleche.  Pierre Rolland, won final stage and overall at castilla-y-leon, in-form and loves an attack.  Slagter tipped in the thread already, 70-1, 9th on wednesday and 6th here last year.  Majka and Barguil good climbers, at over 100-1 represent good value.  Still looking at some others and hoping to get some big odds when the betfair market adds some more riders.

I was disappointed with Alaphillipe after he started 2nd favourite (behind Valverde) in stage 6 of Catalunya and couldn't even win from the breakaway.  I thought maybe it's too soon for him but his 7th at amstel and then his 2nd behind Valverde on wed at fleche were hard to ignore.  In this longer harder race even at 70-1 I might pass on him here still.

Any news on Dan Martin's injuries?

Firstly, it is really inspiring to read the thoughts and entry points behind the regular forum members selections, so thanks for taking the time to provide such details beyond just putting up a few riders names. It really allows a glimpse of how other people think and in the long term it can only be a benefit for those who take the time to unpack such contents.

Okay, I watched the highlights of AGR, and just in pursuit of the discussion on Nibali, I don't think it's really beneficial for us to get side-tracked on whether the evidence exists for what he said after the race in working for Fuglsang, or whether he was in the race for himself and his tactics failed, even though an interpretation of the race exists for either view. The fact is that AST was all over this race and were trying different things, they had Laurens de Vreese in the early break and whilst he was there up to the point that Simon Clarke joined them, both Rosa and Nibali became involved in the proceedings ahead of the peloton, and you could see that they were clearly working as a team, for instance Rosa draws out Tony Martin on the Fromberg for one such example, and then even though the break is clearly over, Nibali tries to push ahead on the Guelhemmerberg at 16kms, and then slots in behind Simon Clarke, and Tony Martin is not working, and you can see Nibali is testing himself and seeing how good his legs can remain.

I therefore think that what we can agree on, is that Nibali definitely was testing himself in AGR for LBL, and if he can attack on Saint Nicolas as Cedarmaster hopes, Nibali will have his best chance of winning this race in a solo attack.

I'm still very confident, primarily in Purito and Kwiatkowski, but I believe including Nibali at ante-post is based on sound logic on the back of AGR and Nibali's suitable characteristics for this parcours. Adding him at 12/1 for 1/2* E/W.

I've not made the game HB. Had a big night last night and been out on the bike. Just not going to be enough time to get down there now from Liverpool. Hoping for a draw or a flukey away win.

I've backed Rui Costa each way for this.......very keen on him

Racing Post selection is by another correspondent Nick Pulford, he choses Valverde @ 3/1

looking at the finish if Fleche again the most surprising thing is actually how easy the win was for Valverde but i cant back anyone at that price in a race like this.

BIG crash there. Roche, Haas and someone from Europcar look badly hurt. Loads affected including Rolland.

Gerrans on the deck again wtf. Collision with a motor bike maybe?

Valverde did all the work and still won.

At least it wasn't a snoozefest like last year and a much deserved winner too.  Kreuziger and Alaphilippe strong.  Katusha rode smart.  Astana lit up the race but saved their weakest rider (Nibali) till last

We had an active race with AST asserting themselves at the head of the peloton, and attempting to put into effect the sorts of things they were trying and experimenting in AGR. Apparently Nibali wanted a hard race, so sending riders up the road fit that tactic, which was clear and quite promising, however it was tragically obvious that he didn't have the legs when he put in his attack on Saint Nicolas for no more than 15m before falling back into his seat like dropping into a sofa -- he was cooked! -- and in fact he was dropped from the main selection soon after that, but made it back, blowing hard and loitering at the back with about 1.5kms to go. And so, on the whole, it was a disappointing performance from Nibali after his AST team rode so strongly, but perhaps it can be said it was also quite neurotic riding from them. I just always thought that Scarponi should remain with Nibali in that type of scenario, that's how it would be expected to go normally, so I didn't understand what they expected to gain from having two up the road working together like that. Perhaps even having two up the road was fine, but surely not riding together but separate, to act as satellites for Nibali's eventual attack. Strange stuff there, because that way they were just sacrificing Scarponi for nothing, much better to have had him with Nibali and be sacrificed traditionally. It sounds funny, but these things mean something as they have a long-founded basis. Nevertheless, I think too much stock was put into his AGR ride with respect to testing himself for this and the truth was clear -- Fuglsang was riding much better and should have been given more respect at some point in this race.

Stybar wrestled control of the peloton by working hard on the front and preventing any further attacks attempting to bridge to the three man break, and he did so right up to the point of the bottom of Saint Nicolas, and who was on his tail but none other than Valverde. I mean, going up the climb Valverde is allowing to dictate terms by employing several switchbacks to have a good look at how his opponents and the selection is fairing, it was quite incredible with over 6.5+kms remaining -- he was that strong!

Kwiatkowski didn't have the legs, in retrospect I'm willing to accept nugget's position that he may have been a little off his form from last year at the same point of the season, certainly it appears that he had peaked in AGR, where is last year his form didn't taper off so sharply. Anyway, stuck with Gallopin over the top of Saint Nicolas is never a good look, and you could see he was trying to make it back across to the leading selection by leading that group on the front, but the wet roads weren't helping him. Incidentally, the first rider over that final categorised climb was Fuglsang -- fantastic ride from him -- but we can only speculate what might have been for him if he remained with the peloton buying his time, instead of being sent out on a hopeless mission.

Bardet impressive to have had a go late!

Caruso did for Purito, to some extent, what Paolini has been doing for Kristoff -- they like to work in pairs like that! And then Moreno! KAT really rode well indeed, understated but disciplined, throughout the entire race, but especially toward the final. Moreno was good to draw out Valverde, but Valverde was just too good, yet again!

I think obviously in retrospect, Alaphilippe made a stronger basis than Tom-Jelte Slagter, and at 50/1 SP was obviously a terrific E/W bet. Kreuziger made the short list, good ride but died a little, and Rui Costa was on the long list, and good ride by him also, he gave the first glimpse, in some time, of the similar condition he had when winning the Worlds.

Cheers,
SP