*La Flèche Wallonne* Wednesday 22nd April

Last year's winner Valverde's results in the Ardennes Classic since 2013 2nd, 7th, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd

Also, the opening city is in Waremme this time, which doesn't mean much, but the bigger circuit of the race has been reduced from 64km to 58.5km and the total climbs of the bigger circuit goes from six to four climbs. The Cote de Cherave definitely looks like a key addition, and it also lengthens the final circuit lap, which means that the total length of the race is now 205.5 kms instead of 199km. That though is only appropriate, all classics at this level, not including the Neutralized starting kms, should be beyond 200 kms.

Yep, stage 3 not stage 6 MC, with respect to the TdF. Prices no doubt generous, and if those candidates are going to race, well...I don't know...are they going to race!?

*** Daniel Martin Since 2012 here, he has consistently improved on his already impressive performances, going: 6/4/2. It's clear that upon reviewing his 15th place finish in AGR last start, he is in good form. Only his positioning was suspect in the lead-in to the Cauberg for the final time. After Gilbert had cleared out, Martin was the one on the front leading the chasing group, which eventually bridged to the attackers on the flat. This season, in Catalunya, his 4th place finish behind Bertie in the stage 4 climb into La Molina, particularly the finishing ramp, is a good parallel to what's on offer here and it validates his credentials for this season. Coming into this at the right time. Commands the utmost respect. Strong claims. 7/1 (BV) W/O is okay, but 11/1 E/W best. Big danger.

* Chris Froome His best result here was a 34th place finish in 2009, and his worst result was a 116th place finish the following year. This season; he hasn't raced since Catalunya where he was largely MIA. Prior to that, he rode his first race of the season in Andalucia, coming out in a very forward condition and skewering Contador in highly impressive fashion into Alto de Allanadas of stage 4, by +29secs. He is not the kind of soft or scared rider to get nervous on the front of a fast moving peloton, and indeed his confidence in the peloton means he can position himself for a suitable attack on either of the two final climbs. If he can repeat the type of whirling cadence he exemplified on stage 2 of last year's Criterium Dauphine up to Col du Beal, he has the explosive kick on a climb of such serious note as the Mur de Huy to gap any of these riders in devastating fashion. He may be here for a recon under race conditions, however he only requires a small opportunity to take command of this race. Has the ability to blitz this field. Interesting proposition. Excellent value 65/1 (PP 4 places) E/W. Treat warily.

1/4* Julian Arredondo 11th here last year when on debut brings him into calculations, as does his light frame and perfectly suitable characteristics. Conversely, he is having a slow season with no results to speak of, for instance finishing 100th last start in AGR, which was his first race since the Basque Country. Will require luck in-running. Hard to get right. Has minor place claims. 50/1 (various) E/W, should be 180/1. Take on trust.

1/8* Diego Ulissi Between 2012-2014, when racing the three races of the Ardennes, his best results came in this race, and he has gone: 9/13/17. Last start, 49th AGR +52secs, looks like he needed the hit-out. Has suitable characteristics, certainly much better than teammate Rui Costa. Perhaps a place. 125/1 (PP 4 places) E/W, should be 220/1. Consider.

Good luck to all,
SP

I quite fancy Yates for this

Have also backed DAN MARTIN myself 7/1 was best I could manage! Of the favourites he is my main pick, he has flown up the Mur de Huy the last 2 years and is surely going to be right there again. Obviously Valverde is the man to beat but at 11/4 he is too short for me.
The other rider I like of the favourites is DANI MORENO at 14/1, he looked the strongest of the katusha riders on sunday and i'm sure i read Purito's main aim is LBL so hopefully Moreno will be their main man here?

I do think though that there is a chance we may see a different finish with the new climb, cote de charave, coming so close to the end. If a decent rider or 2 gets a gap at the top of Charave they will be very hard to catch. So have decided to back a couple at decent prices.
The first one i'm thinking of is NIBALI 50/1 ew. He may be thinking more of LBL? But he is always looking to attack from afar and so an attack on the penultimate climb may well be a good opportunity for him. With his descending speed, if he gets away on Charave I dont think he would be caught.

Have also backed FROOME at 66/1 ew as just think he is too big a price. He doesnt have any one day form of note but there is no reason why he shouldnt be fast up the Mur de Huy. His form has to be a? But Porte has said they have just done a very intense 12 day altitude training camp and are in superb condition. Froome will have in his mind that he will be finishing over this course in the tdf stage 3 and with bonus seconds available this year will want to be right up there, so the only way to really test himself on it is to give it a real good go here??

Have also done a little on a Sky double tomorrow Froome 66/1 and Porte (stage 2 Trentino) 3/1!!
Actually thought Porte would be closer to evens for tomorrow and to me looks a great bet at 3's.

Small bit on Froome on here at 90, win only. He'll either be out the back or trading odds on so happy with win only.

Okay, MC, you very-well know that the markets move and prices fluctuate according to a variety of factors. I have been careful to never suggest that that is the price I got for Dan Martin, just that for those looking for value and perhaps thinking of taking Dan Martin, they might wait to see if they can get the better price. Yes, it's unlikely that the price will drift out to 11/1, but you just never know.

Just to echo HB, Valverde the obvious danger after his excellent AGR ride, but just too short to hold with any stake for me.

On Gilbert, just looks like with his advancing age, any form he has at the start of his Ardennes campaign seems to taper off with successive rides and he's not even mentioned in running, however with the pressure off BMC for this race, he may feel that the pressure is off him and he grow wings, and his price has improved on the back of his last start failure to make some appeal. Don't want him on-side at ante-post, though.

Not sure I would agree that such a strong case may be made for the Flowerman here, if wasn't for the flats last start, there was no way he was making it across to Gilbert and even Matthews were the finish to have come on top of the Cauberg, and with the climb significantly harder here, there's little chance he will be the one to make play ahead of some very talented and punchy climbers. Can't have him here at all. Moreno I like, but you can't back them all at ante-post and still make a profit, so will leave him out at some significant risk at this stage.

Cheers,
SP

Kwitkowski is a huge price here. I don't think he got the credit he deserved for winning on Sunday. Plus he was 3rd here last year despite leading half way up the climb. He took it up way too early last year and he knows it but he still stuck on well for third. Kwitkowski learns from his mistakes. He is a massive price. He will be there or there abouts, that's for sure

Also no one mentioning how well Rui Costa rode on Sunday and with the new climb today he could be just the type of rider  to benefit. For a rider of his class he is an enormous price today.

Very happy to back Kwitkowski and Rui Costa each way

Crash for Dan Martin looks like he is in pain must be day over for him.

Easy win for Porte at stage 2 Trentino the 3/1 looked a gift!

Well done HB hope Froome obliges for you (and me)

That was ridiculous did you see that trailer? Which moron parked that there with it sticking half out into the road? Took out Jungels, Gilbert and a couple of other riders, and had nearly half the peloton down.

How many crashes!! that looks like the end for Froome now, there is going to be a lot of sore riders tomorrow!

That lead is 20secs not 6

Great pick from Cedarmaster Albasini 3rd 50/1

Yes impressive by Valverde but i was a bit disappointed with the lack of action up the Mur the final time. Like you said MC he led from the bottom was always in control,  didn't look like he was very comfortable or going any great pace but no one had the legs to get near him.

not bad picks by racing post again either

MC - on investigation they were two different correspondents

Amstel Gold - Kwiatowski selection was by Phil Agius

Fleche Wallone - Valverde/Wellens selection was by Paul Charlton

i will monitor further selections