*Amstel Gold Race* Sunday 19th April

Out of the three Ardennes classics the Amstel Gold Race is the most open and the race can be won in a variety of different ways.   The new course has been used twice (1.8km flat from top of the Cauberg to the finish line). 
In 2013 Roman Kreuziger attacked from the peleton with 17km to go joining up with 5 or 6 other riders.  Kreuziger then attacked out of the lead group with 7km to go to solo to victory with Valverde, Gerrans, Kwiatkowski finishing 2nd,3rd and 4th from a bunch of 15 riders.
In 2012 the exact same course was used for the world championships.  Gilbert attacked on the Cauberg and got a small gap over a chasing trio. Gilbert held on to win by 4 secs with Hagen and Valverde from the chase trio holding on for 2nd and 3rd by 1 sec over Degenkolb and a group of 26 other riders.
In 2014 Gilbert attacked on the Cauberg.  He opened a small gap on Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski and the trio seemed to watch each other as Gilbert soloed to victory and the strong Ardennes specialist J.Vanendert caught and passed the trio for 2nd on the flat 1.8km section.  Gerrans won the sprint for the final step on the podium, with 17 riders finishing within 12 secs of the winner.

Notable that the breakaway has not been caught until less than 7km to go in recent editions.  Probably not much to see in the first 240km but the last 10-15km could be a good watch.

WTF!? The 2012 Worlds course was used for the first time in 2013. Moreover, in the 2012 edition it was Gasparotto that won the race, not Gilbert. MC provided this information in his thread body. Also, EBH has never had a top-30 in this race let alone a second in 2012 by 4 secs!

I appreciate you're attempting to illustrate the variety of ways this race can be won, but you have to be accurate surely, otherwise it's just confusing nonsense!

In addition, there's a heap to see and witness throughout the length of the race, including how the teams are performing and how strong their principals look, are working, or conversely not working but holding back. The finale is where the excitement usually happens, however the information leading to this point is some of the most important racing to be witnessed in identifying the likely rivals to be involved in the main proceedings.

Cheers,
SP

the 2012 worlds knob head

SwingingPick
In addition, there's a heap to see and witness throughout the length of the race, including how the teams are performing and how strong their principals look, are working, or conversely not working but holding back. The finale is where the excitement usually happens, however the information leading to this point is some of the most important racing to be witnessed in identifying the likely rivals to be involved in the main proceedings

How astute of you. I'm assuming you'll be watching the whole 6 and a half hours then.

SwingingPick
in the 2012 edition it was Gasparotto that won the race, not Gilbert. MC provided this information in his thread body.

They dont do the same course as 2012. The current course is different.  The current course has been used 3 times.  In the 2012 world championships and the 2013 and 2014 Amstel Gold Race.

Your confusability and lack of reading comprehension is probably due to your Aussie education.

nugget 18 Apr 15 01:40
Out of the three Ardennes classics the Amstel Gold Race is the most open and the race can be won in a variety of different ways. The new course has been used twice (1.8km flat from top of the Cauberg to the finish line).


Lol, who is confusing who

nugget 18 Apr 15 09:07

They dont do the same course as 2012. The current course is different.  The current course has been used 3 times.  In the 2012 world championships and the 2013 and 2014 Amstel Gold Race.

you got me. nice work, keep it up

Twice at the Amstel Gold (2013, 2014), once at the world championships (2012).  For the confused one.

I'm not confused by the results in this race, just by your confusing manner in reviewing the results. This thread is about the race, not the course, so whilst the course parallel with the 2012 Worlds is important, it is only a secondary level of information since the distance used in the worlds was up to 20kms longer than AGR.

I believe you need to give more thought to how you edit your information, to be less confusing, because you raise some important observations. SP

Let's draw a line under this chaps. We've all got good intentions here, namely to share info & ideas to give us an all-important edge against the real villains - the bookies. I'm sure we've all got thoughts on and memories of previous versions of what is normally a cracking race, but shall we turn our attention to the more important thing - who is going to win tomorrow?

I've got some ideas which I will share when I get back from watching Crewe save themselves from relegation today against Walsall (fingers and everything esle firmly crossed).

*** Jelle Vanendert Has not got one single noteworthy result this season, however that is very much similar to last year. Since 2011 in the Amstel Gold Race he has finished: 13/2/13/2. He has complained of bad weather in the Basque Country in previous seasons as having affected his preparation for this race, and as a result he has not felt the best coming into his Ardennes campaigns. This year, he cites his recovery time after each stage in the Basque Country as a strong indicator of his strongly building condition for this race. The course suits him very well as he is one of a handful of riders to have the necessary destructive speed up the Cauberg, and also the hard-as-nails strength to attack a group on the flat part into the finish as he demonstrated last year. He should be that patient rider who will buy his time for the most part of the race, waiting for the final ascent of the Cauberg before launching his attack. That is what the team expects, also. In a way he is expected to be there by the finale, and should he be there he'll be amongst the race-winning hopes. One of the main contenders. Commands respect as an Ardennes classics specialist. Represents excellent E/W value in an open affair. 33/1 (various). Go close.

** Michal Kwiatkowski His best ride so far this season was in Paris-Nice, where he won the Prologue and finished on the podium in the mountaintop finish stage 4 up the Croix de Chaubouret, behind G and stage winner Porte. He also finished 2nd on GC, +30secs behind. Next, in MSR, when amongst the main group, he crashed on the descent of the Poggio but astonishingly managed to remount and finish in 67th place. Then, he failed badly when he finished in 4th place in DDV as he was expected to win after being involved in the race-winning move against inferior opposition. Finally, last start, in the Basque Country, he has looked fast and had a good build up with a 2nd and two 4th place finishes. He holds a good advantage with his expansive characteristics, in being capable of a decent climb of the Cauberg, a strong sprint, and the ability to attack from long-range with his excellent TT skills. He is the captain of the team, which is not that surprising, but he will get decent support which perhaps he didn't have last year. He finished 5th here, last year. I would advance that at this stage of his career he looks like this is the type of course (and the Ardennes classics more generally) which should suit him best in terms of his characteristics. Very strong claims. W/O 8/1 (various). Should be 12/1 and E/W. Hold safely.

* Purito Rodriguez He does not have the best of luck in this race, failing to finish in the past two years through crashes I believe, however he does also have a 2nd place finish here in 2011, and more widely he has the suitable characteristics and results in the Ardennes classics, previously. Having ridden the Basque Country not as a training ride but as an outright GC aim, he has experienced the value of winning it in very fine fashion with two stage wins and a 2nd in the final ITT, and coming out of it in very good condition. Coming into this at the right time as a race-hard combatant. Will not surprise with a podium performance, but hard to get right. 16/1 all gone but still being advertised with SB was about right. 12/1 (various) still okay on an E/W basis. Treat warily.

1/4* Tim Wellens Unlike his teammate Vanendert, Wellens does not have the impressive results over this trip, in fact he has only started once for a 68th place finish, last year. Nevertheless, the 23yo Belgian rider impressed in stage 5 of the Basque Country over a hilly parcours at last start, when he finished in 2nd place behind Landa by only +3secs. Earlier, he finished in 15th place in MSR which was noteworthy for such a young rider, in that he finished with the main group fighting out the finish. That he can handle the conditions here is not in dispute as evidenced by his 4th place finish in Il Lomardia, last year. He is quite a tactically aware rider and has good positioning in his races, but here his role will be that of a long-range attacker, or an early attacker late in the race. That is to say, he may be called upon to animate the peloton with an attack or close down a late attack, which he might then use to his own advantage freely. I do not believe he is going to be sacrificed for Vanendert, but there is a chance of that with him at this stage. Forward showing expected. Consider closely. 40/1, should be 125/1. E/W. One for the multiples.

Good luck to all,
SP

You're absolutely right MC, thanks for the reminder, and the opportunity to fold this away. Good luck with Crewe, mate. SP

I respect all of yours SP. I have nearly pulled the trigger on Kwiatowski myself and might, it's really difficult to see him not on the premises. Vanendert was 200s last season and ran an incredible race coming from a way back to get 2nd. Purito is in amazing form and we know the Cauberg will suit him and I nearly backed Wellens myself at the start of the week when Billy Hills were 55/1.

This is a realy, really open race. You could look at dozens of potential contenders here. I've gone for Wilco Kelderman 125/1, Sergio Henao 25/1 and smaller on Dani Moreno 50/1. I may add another as well before the off or in-running. I think Gilbert is the correct favourite, I don't discount Valverde but don't want to be on at the price. Similarly for Matthews, who was 10/1 before Brabantse Pijl. I'd rather back Kwiatowski than either Valverde or Matthews. Kelderman I think combines the qualities necessary to win this race, combining the climbing ability with flat speed needed after the Cauberg. He's not got a track record at this race so I am taking a lot on trust but I do feel this race is probably the best chance of making an impression on these Ardennes Classics for a lot of the younger up-and-coming riders of the like Slagter, Dumoulin etc. I was really impressed with Henao in the Basque Country, he's clearly in tip-top shape. Slight doubt over whether the focus is this or Fleche Wallone where Henao has come 2nd in the past but if he is targeting this I can't see anyone dropping him on the Cauberg. Moreno is a smaller bet than either Kelderman or Henao. Katusha have had an amazing season already, and they have a lot of options for this, not least in Purito. My theory (no evidence to back this up) is that Rodriguez might set Moreno up here where he was 9th last year and then play second fiddle to Purito at Fleche Wallone and LBL.

Hi guys, looking forward to this tomorrow.

Obviously Gilbert is the man to beat, he is just awesome here and knows exactly how to win this but at 3/1 he is just too short for me.

The rest of the peleton will know exactly when and where Gilbert will attack the question is if anyone can live with him when he does or even beat him to it??

Ive decided to back 2 at decent prices who should give me a good run for my money- MOLLEMA 50/1 ew and HENAO 25/1 ew.

Mollema has in the last 3 years finished 7th 10th and 10th here. He is here with a new team this year and as a dutchman i'm sure this is one race he would love to win.  He has been in good if not spectacular form so far this year, he climbs well and is capable of a decent sprint if in a small group, so looks sure to be involved in the action when we get to the cauberg.

Henao comes here after a great ride at Pais Vasco where he was just edged out by Purito for the gc, so we know  he is in great shape. I was torn between the 2 for my second bet here (may still yet back purito) but at twice the price Henao offers the better value to me. He finished 6th here in 2013 (went on to be 2nd at wallone and 16th at LBL that week), so i'm sure he will be looking to be right in the action this week.

Gl all.

By the way MC unlucky with Crewe today mate. I'm a big Coventry fan, our game against your lot next saturday is going to be a huge game!

I'm probably going to Cov next week. Think we need at least a draw. Had a great time there in the Paint Pot Cup Semis a couple of years back where you absolutely marmalised us and we somehow won 0-3. One of the strangest games I've ever seen. Mollema was on my shortlist as well, reckon he's a good shout but he's definitely one I'd want first 4 for.

Yes that semi final was a very strange game I still can't believe we lost that now! A draw would probably suit both teams next week, to be fair you should be ok for a point at our place we are terrible at home.

Have done Mollema and Henao both first 4, will be happy enough if either of them can make the top 4!

Can we agree a point now? It will also save me the time and expense of coming down...

Between us we've picked out a few decent young riders over this classics season, like Benoot, De Bie and Senechal. One to keep an eye on here is young Danish rider Michael Valgren who will apparently be Tinkoff Saxo's protected rider ahead of Kreuziger who is honing his form. Valgren went quite deep in the Worlds in Spain last autumn and has twice won under-23 Liège-Bastogne-Liège. I haven't backed him but Tinkoff must think a lot of him chucking him in as a leader here, a bit like they did with Rafal Majka in the Giro a couple of years back.

Hey HB, cheers MC.

Had a good look at some of your selections, and starting with Kelderman, I can say I am a fan after his promising rides in the Giro last year. Here, however, I feel he may require luck in running on account of a lack of experience and physical presence in the peloton towards commanding a prominent position. Positioning in the peloton is one of the three main factors I have identified, along with strong climbing ability and tough-as-nails strength, which are required to win this race, and he looks like he may still be a little fragile, in that regard.

He might have just had an off day, and nevertheless he has had some decent results in the interim, but Valverde's failure in SB struck him off my index heavily, and it'll take some time for him to reclaim his points of stature, before I start considering him in something like this.

I think Henao lines up better for Flèche Wallonne, but obviously some good recent form, although from SKY I'm going to keep a close eye on Wout Poels IR, he may just be their strong ace card.

Moreno requires trust which I don't have at ante-post.

Yes, some chatter for Valgren, I think that tosspot Conde from Twitter has thrown him in as one of his "super joker" wankfests he's never landed, and as a result advanced the suggestion, but 123rd over this trip last year, and I can't have him showing up all-of-a-sudden in any serious way, regardless of team impression and promotion.

Agree with the consensus on Mollema, he has some good results around these parts, from last year he has gone: 7/10/10. He is difficult to discount, and whilst he's being advertised at 50/1, I've gone 4 places with PP at 25/1 E/W for *.

Good luck to all,
SP

Good morning all on race day morning.

Gilbert is the obvious choice here but no price
Valverde again will probably be on the scene but unlikely to win
Kwiatowski i love hope he wins but is no value
Rodriguez? just cant see him winning
i cant see Mollema winning in any circumstances
Gerrans would be a good shout if we could have seen a few prep runs and although i wishhim well here it would take alot of faith to back him in this despite podium finishes in the last 2 years.

There has been no mention of GVA because everyone is focusing on Gilbert but he represents @ 66/1 in the form he's in
Other riders have good form in the race Gasparotto and Caruso
Dan Martin may prefer Liege but his team mate Tom Slagter has a shout here

i am only having one outsider in this race and it is
Bjorn Leukemans @ 200/1 1/4 1,2,3,4

i am hoping to see Arredondo light up some climbs and make the earlier part of the race a bit more exciting.

Good luck to everyone and lets hope for a great finish

I'm quite keen on Dan Martin each way here. I know people reckon that the next two races might be his ultimate aim but I saw an interview with him and he said he is more forward and prepared than he has ever been for this race and he has decided to target this race as well thus year. If that's true then he is a massive price

early break of 6 riders

De Veese
Polanc
Roosen
Gerderman
Van Zyl
Terpstra

after 40km they have a lead of 1m 30s

after  62km  break  extends gap to  7m 49s

Just got back from my morning ride. Slowly getting back into it after injuries and finding that weaker legs and a bigger belly is not a good combo . I've not added to my three so I'm relying on Kelderman, Henao and Moreno.

Either I've been studying this race for too long or my morning ride has deprived my brain of oxygen but I'm starting to see the dragon from the Neverending Story in the Route Map

Sounds like a bit of a tailwind at the line, could well be that the first man over the Cauberg takes it again.

Yeah tailwind could help attackers stay clear, sprint between Rodriguez, Gilbert, Dan Martin? with Valverde and Kwiatkowski there or thereabouts.

Hoping for some early attacks from some riders who might not wait for the Cauberg.  Wellens, Poels, Rui Costa, Dumoulin

Diego Ulissi 200-1

Ulissi dropped

This has the makings of a dull race.  Good weather = huge peloton

Well the last 2 km was quite good and nice to see the rainbow win.  Matthews and Gilbert stopped each other from winning

Well done SP and other winners. Kwiatowski was always the favourite I liked at the price but never backed him. You're right GB, it was nice to see the rainbow win even if I wasnt on. Onwards and upwards. Giro Del Trentino this week, as well as Fleche Wallone Wednesday and then LBL next week. I'll have the fred up tomorrow for LBL complete with capital letters.

huge congrats to Kwiatowski who looks a worthy world champion

MK also put up by the Racing Post this morning @ 7/1

Cheers MC, I'm sorry I couldn't be that small impetus it sounds like you just required to cover the Flowerman. I fear I made a mess of my staking plan on this one, in so far as putting too much trust in a podium result for Vanendert by covering him E/W. At those prices between Kwiatkowski and Vanendert, I can see I would have been far better advised to have had Kwiatkowski above Vanendert on stakes, just as a rule, and not necessarily by the result, although it was a solid outcome for me!

On Vanendert; I think any confidence he had in the race was quickly replaced by anxiety and doubt after he got tangled-up with his teammate and one other rider on that corner. Just never heard from him again, after that.

As I suggested, Kelderman just doesn't have the experience on this type of course, and his fragility could not have been more abundantly clear when he attempted to change discipline to cyclo-cross midway through the race. Mollema was out-the-back when the pace came on toward the final lap. Purito was called on the Cauberg, and I haven't watched the replay yet, but it sounds like the comms confused him for Moreno, who was prominent and impressive.

Not sure I can agree that the racing was boring, the Nibali break gave it life and then the little attacks, and BMC scrambling, and OGE blistering the road as they drove the pace for Bling, in a move very similar to last year, I believe – was all highly enjoyable, but I agree it came late in the race in general terms.

Thrillingly fast speed by OGE to set-up Bling into the Cauberg in a good position, which worked well since he survived well, and to me looked very good on the flat, very strong and composed, in fact. But, Flowerman, I mean, he was under lock and key, in the guts of that selection, got the key and opened the lock, and that sprint he showed in the Basque Country was replicated again here and he was just too good for Bling and Valverde. Stunning win! I think I said this before, but I never thought the Curse of the Rainbow Jersey would have a big, or rather long influence on the WC from Poland.

BMC were terrific, really great, but that's the thing with Gilbert, he is getting old I fear, however GVA's ride was brilliant on the other hand, full marks in my index, absolutely a massive effort! Speaking of index, I think Valverde reclaims some lost points after his major SB failure, I didn't expect that one bit. Good to see Gallopin and Paterski there amongst the moves, again. Alaphilippe continues to make interesting signals. Dan Martin, didn't excite, but LBL was always going to be his target. Wellens never imposing.

Costa was one that I just overlooked for some reason, but now that he finished in 4th place it's obviously not that much of a surprise, I don't think any of us are surprised. He was certainly the value rider we were searching for, going off as a 66/1 pop with PP on 4 places at 1/4.

Cheers,
SP

Impressed by Matthews ride, going with Gilbert on the Cauberg probably cost him the race but you cant blame him for thinking that would be the winning move.  Valverde thought so too.  A little unlucky for him and a nice effort.

Well deserved win from Kwiatkowski.  He's such a quick learner.  For instance last few years he was outsprinted by Gerrans and Valverde in the classics, so at the World Champs he attacked from 7km out and won, nothing ventured, nothing gained.  Last year at Amstel Gold he said he went too hard on the Cauberg trying to attack and paid for his efforts, beaten into 5th. This year at Amstel he rolled the dice and didn't go with the attacks on the Cauberg preferring to conserve energy and play the waiting game in hope that his group would catch the attackers.  His gamble paid off as the attackers were reeled in and being that little bit fresher than his main rivals was able to sprint to victory.  That's cycling, smart ride.

Yes - very, very impressive. Do we know what the rest of his calendar looks like. I presume Uran is being aimed at the Giro and Kwiatowski at the Tour but if its the other way round 100/1 looks big for the Giro considering there is a near 60km TT and a TTT.

That's what it looks like at this time MC, and I wouldn't think they would deviate from that.

I don't think Kwiatkowski will be looking too far past next sunday at this point.  From what I can see he's listed to do Fleche Wallone, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Tour de Suisse and Tour de France, so far but obviously things can change.  I think Uran will go close in the giro TT.  I don't think I could back Kwiatkowski to win a Grand Tour unless he said he was going for a high GC.  He's sure got the chance to win a bunch of Grand Tour stages however.     

Moreno and Caruso finishing in the front group here bodes well for Itching at Fleche.  Backed Costa here and after watching a bit of the race I couldn't find a LBL market fast enough.  29-1, I think 30's is about right.