*Gent-Wevelgem* 29th March 2015

Nacer Bouhanni 22/1 PP is my first play here

Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149878&c=3

PP the only book to have got prices yet

Cav 4/1
Kristoff 9/2
Degenkolb 9/1
Sagan 10/1
Greipel 14/1
Demare 18/1
Viviani 20/1
Bouhanni 22/1
Vanmarcke 25/1
Theuns 33/1
Thomas 33/1
Van Averamet 33/1
Trentin 33/1
Stybar 33/1
Boassen Hagen 40/1
Debusschere 40/1
Lobato 50/1
Bennett 50/1
66/1 bar

Second bet in Gent Wevelgem for me is Tom Van Asbroeck at 66/1. Last year's 6th in this and 7th in Tour of Flanders while riding for Topsport got him his move to Lotto Jumbo and while he will probably play second fiddle to Vanmarcke, if it ends up as a bunch sprint he'll probably be their card. 4th behind Cav at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne proves he's reaching the level of the top-table sprinters in events like these and he's an attractive price.

Nacer Bouhanni 22/1
Tom Van Asbroeck 66/1

Will Eurosport cover it this year? I'm pretty sure they don't normally show it

No mate, they're showing the Crtierium International. Disappointingly, it's proved impossible to get a bet on the Crit Int because no-one has properly priced it up. So we've got the strange situation of a live TV race you can't bet on and a race you can only watch on streams (cyclinghub/tv is excellent btw) that everyone has priced up

I've added Luke Rowe at 250/1 with Bet £3.65

4th bet for me is Zdenek Stybar 40/1 PP have gone 4 places as well, which is pleasing. So my team is:

Nacer Bouhanni 22/1
Zdenek Stybar 40/1
Tom Van Asbroek 66/1
Luke Rowe 250/1 (3 places only)

gent wevelgem is on eurosport 2    1.15-4.30pm

Good spot LP! Yeah!

backed trentin at 40/1

The peloton at the 240km sprinters' classic of Gent-Wevelgem are likely to experience wet and tricky conditions on account of overnight rain, and a forecast for sporadic rain conditions throughout the day. I therefore believe a breakaway is more likely to succeed than fail, through a disorganised chase by the peloton because of the chaos of crashes and mechanical failures.

29yo experienced campaigner and Belgian Jurgen Roelandts is displaying the kind of form which saw him bag a top-10 place here last year, and I recall tipping him for Flanders where he unfortunately crashed out. With some better luck he should be right amongst the chances over backyard terrain this time out. Whilst he didn't ride OHN and KBK like in 2014, his results -- 11th MSR and a 7th last start in E3 -- are in fact better than in 2014, and his forward showing last start suggests he has room for improvement. Coming into this at the right time. Will look to make presence felt. Fair E/W value at 50/1 various, although 100/1 would be best. *.

Good luck to all,
SP

With the rain and wind forecast I can see this being brutal. Not sure it will be a bunch sprint as many predict.
As I said on the Harlebecke thread I thought Vanmarcke looked very strong in Friday and I will throw a few quid at him today. Along with Stybar who rode brilliantly on Friday and just got done by Thomas.
Also Stannard weather innit?
Vanmarcke
Stybar
Stannard for me

Looking like the weather is likely to ease by the latter stages of the race

I agree, Stannard is a top pick, suited by the conditions and the parcours, it's just I'm hoping Stannard uses the race as a training ride, I've backed him for PR earlier and don't want him to peak here with a win.

Some of those roads in the Flanders Fields are perpetually wet, so even if it stops the sporadic raining I expect wet and slippery road conditions, contributing to the chaos of the peloton in organising a concerted chase. We'll see. SP

degenkolb for me, perfect profile for this race. 15/2 with pp. cant resist stannard in the wet, 50's more than fair

Not backed anything so far, but this is going to be a complete clusterf*ck in these conditions. Not taking anything until the last possible moment as I doubt if much more than 1/4 of the field will finish this.

Tjallingi attacks solo. Brave with 100km to go.

Griepel doing a lot of work on the front - Roelandts the chosen one for Lotto?

I've added Vandenbergh 100/1 and Naesen 400/1 both each way

Paolini is a monster!

Cycling tactics by Stijn Vandenbergh! It's a book I'd love to read.

How did G make that back so quickly?

Wow Roelandts match odds on with 50km to go, laid me some of that

Last bet here - Debusschere 9/1ew he's the fastest rider in the chase group AND he doesn't have to do any work here with Roelandts up front

That's a great bet at 9/1 I think he might have to fall off to not get that. 3 places?

yes mate, assume so. Yes mate 1/4 1,2,3

Right, need to get Roelandts beat first and then, in order, my best results are:

Debusschere
Vandenbergh
Thomas
Vanmarcke

Terpstra and Paolini no good for me

Sitting in the posh seats now, MC. Don't think Paolini is sandbagging.

My two worst results up front by themselves

Paolini could well win this here, great move

A place for Thomas is scant consolation there, and the lay of Roelandts doesn't cover my initial and inplay bets so its a losing Gent-Wevelgem for me. Great ride by Paolini there, thoroughly deserved that win. Etixx are going to be gutted with their failure to take down another big race despite having serious amounts of contenders on the premises. Tinkoff

A place for Thomas is scant consolation there, and the lay of Roelandts doesn't cover my initial and inplay bets so its a losing Gent-Wevelgem for me. Great ride by Paolini there, thoroughly deserved that win. Etixx are going to be gutted with their failure to take down another big race despite having serious amounts of contenders on the premises. Tinkoff

Well safe to say I didn't do too well there! E-QS DS must be absolutely fuming.

Tinkoff not going to be happy either

always have something on the longest price in the break

happy to see vanmarcke is still fav for flanders he looks terrible

I believe Clay and I understood the race accurately in there not being a sprint finish but rather a breakaway. Quite amazing scenes - with the head-on camera shot - to see multiple groups of echelons lined-up behind each other on that leafy, slightly undulating stretch of road. Indeed it looked brutal as the wind was a much much greater factor in influencing the race than just the rain -- nice one Clay.

What a crash by G, and then to get back on was heroic. I believe we again saw Sagan's poor form, in not being capable of jumping out of the main chasing group and slogging up to the quality first selection chase group -- in the manner of Paolini and Terpstra. I'm not sure Paolini's effort to attack twice and ultimately stay clear for the win on the second occasion, was that surprising frankly, only because we've seen his strength before to such an extent, even in the Ardennes, and when I recently described him as the 'bar-room enforcer' I suggested he has such great low-end power and hard strength. Obviously Kristoff wasn't up for it and KAT gave him the freedom, which he used to full effect. Cunning, crafty ride. Great win for him in the autumn season of his career.

As I intimated on the E3 thread concerning Vanmarcke, there's something not quite right with him, and whilst I expected a dominant performance, he failed quite badly. Echoing what we're probably all thinking, G is going great guns, really quite exceptional form for the SKY rider. He did excite the break on several occasions and perhaps worked a tad bit more than the others in that group, certainly when considering having to work on his own to recover from that spectacular crash when the wind blew him off the road and into the ditch. Did it twice, essentially. Debusschere might have been more combative and ultimately more successful if not for the conditions, he really couldn't handle the way-of-going, here. Vandenbergh -- no comment! Terpstra, impressed me a lot, I think he gains the most out of this race. Still need to watch it again, but I liked what I saw with Terpstra heading into Flanders and PR. Finally, my sole selection at ante-post, Jurgen Roelandts -- I could never have laid off any, even though I was E/W with PP, it would've felt disrespectful, just a Herculean effort which was a pleasure to witness, celestial almost, I think that was the best ride I've seen in at least two seasons of cobbled classics in, what was, just an amazing race.

Cheers,
SP

Quite right about Roelandts. That was an insanely strong ride from him in those conditions. Right about Terpstra as well. He looked great, I actually think having Vandenbergh with him was a disadvantage as the latter was no help and Terstra rightly decided to go on the attack. Vandebergh is insanely strong but just about as tactically inept a rider there is.

agree about paolini. the clear mind when everyone was well fatigued to attack when he did and the strength to finish it off. he might of been a bit underestimated by the others in the break and given a bit more leeway.

also, i wonder how roelandts would of gone if he had of sat up and waited for the chasing group?

Just on Vandenbergh, he might have realised that given his massive frame and the tailwind towards the line gains him an advantage, and keeping his powder dry, so to speak, should've always been his priority. Having said that, he again displayed his impressive credentials over such terrain. Close guidance in his own team might be required for him to achieve his obvious potential.

Nugget -- I think once Roelandts committed to his escape he would've been on par to G, in terms of expending energy, so at what point in his escape would he have needed to sit up to still be fresh enough to compete with Paolini's attack? That's really difficult to determine, but let us consider the effort he displayed in fighting the headwind solo for so long, and then stay with the group, briefly.

Still to view Terpstra, again. SP