*E3 Harelbeke* 27th March 2015

Early prices posted by PP at first glance I like the look of G at 18/1 and Edy the Boss at 33/1

The preparation for the Tour of Flanders begins in earnest with the tough parcours of E3 Harelbeke signalling a stringent test of the form of the fancied riders, and test the dynamics within the teams and their strategy and tactics.

I believe that KAT are arguably the strongest team on the start line and will have various strong cards to play throughout the course of the race, and whilst it's highly likely that they'll have a rider or riders involved in the race-winning moves, determining whom they may be is simply too difficult to predict prior to the start and thus is best observed in running.

25yo KAT rider Alexey Tsatevich caught the eye last start in DDV and his previous results suggest he has the characteristics required to perform well on the cobbles. Improving type. May find himself amongst the multiples. Quote 1000/1.
Kuznetsov was another rider who featured prominently in DDV when he simply rode off the front of the chasing group, and he is a rider who can be handy on his day. Has sound prospects. 400/1 B365.
  33yo Kolobnev is lightly raced so far this season, and he also had a positive result in DDV when he finished in 19th place. Place claims. Consider. 400/1 PP.
   Experienced bar-room enforcer Luca Paolini again showed his strength and skill on the front of the Via Roma finale when he again nearly delivered teammate Kristoff into a defence of his MSR title. Amongst the multiples. Others have much worse prospects. 150/1 PP.
     Sprinter Kristoff will be best served if KAT work on the front of the peloton to bring back the breakaway in the approximate 15kms of flat road left to the finish line after the final hellingen of the Tiegemberg. Has claims. 15/1 various.
      Finally for KAT, is 23yo Norwegian Sven Erik Bystrøm. He is the current under23 WC, has some form on the cobbles by literally showing 'promise' in finishing in the top 10 of the Beloften Tour of Flanders. Has minor claims. May surprise with a top 10 performance. Quote 1000/1.

At 28 years-of-age BMC rider Jean-Pierre Drucker has not broken through for his first professional win as yet, and that is unlikely to change here, however his handy 11th place finish last start in DDV, would suggest a strong performance, here. Has only minor podium claims. Will be riding for GVA. 100/1 B365, should be 1000/1.

Geraint Thomas has gone 3rd and 4th in his last two starts over this course, and after his forward showing last start in MSR, it would appear that he is again on target to be amongst the chances for the podium. One of the main contenders. 14/1 WillHill.

Sunny and dry conditions are predicted, however with recent rainfall in the region there may be wet and tricky patches in places, and therefore bike handling skills, climbing ability, and good fitness will all be required for a rider to give a dominant performance, and there are two riders which tick all those boxes and both are on the top line of betting. Both will get my money at ante-post as they're my only two bets at ante-post:

GVA's best result on the cobbles comes courtesy of his 2nd place finish in the Tour of Flanders, last years. This season he has had some excellent results and his belief in his ability amongst top class company is now well established. Already a winner this season, finished 2nd in SB, and coming off a 19th place finish in MSR. Honest campaigner. Likely to give a good performance. Consider very closely. 8/1 various. WO at this stage of his campaign. *.

Peter Sagan is defending his title of last year after going one place better than his 2nd place finish in 2013. His MSR was highly positive when he finished in the photo for the podium, but ultimately in 4th place, and it appears he is on an improving arc of form. Sure to impose his presence on the race. Rated very highly. Likely winner. 6/1 various. WO is best. ***.

Good luck to all,
SP

Stijn Vandenbergh is such a workhorse, very big, powerful low-end engine, however he's always working for one of the big names on EQS, and I see no change on this occasion. I can just imagine Terpstra's attitude toward SV in such a prestigious race as this if he feels the race is slipping away from him -- 'why are you not turning yourself inside-out for me!?' Whipping him verbally, basically. Terpstra can be quite imposing like that. I would argue that SV is less likely to be ordered to solo chase down a break (there are other riders more inclined and appropriate to do that like Trentin or Stybar, for instance) which turns out to be the race in the finale. I recall in last year's Tour of Flanders when he was pressed into service by Spartacus, Sep, and GVA -- he was always going to fail against these three more fancied opponents. My point is that there's a pattern to his type of riding from him, and whilst his evident value is appealing given his excellent results and consistency on the cobbles, he doesn't strike me as a winner, and one with an at-all-costs mentality.

EBH doesn't really have the hard man rating to have the strength if it comes to a bar fight, but I note his solid season so far. Will wait to see. Bit worried about Degenkolb, have discounted him over recent times. Will evaluate him again, I think.

Cheers,
SP

Thomas, Sagan and Stybar have a 15 second lead over a large chase group with 30km to go.

gap was coming right down then, as the chasers got organised and serious but a bit of fortune for the three in front as Van Avaermaet crashes and slows the group down.

Geraint Thomas wins E3 Harelbeke. Turning into a good day this!

Yes Clay, I'm going to have to admit that, for all his versatility and promise, he is not winning often enough from the strong positions he gets into in races. Whilst he is in a strong team, and whilst the management issue wasn't a factor in this race but rather his legs -- he is moving backwards as a rider, at this stage. Having said that, it was quite obvious he wasn't strong when shown to be breathing hard, which was the first time I actually saw him suffering so visually in a race. I don't begin any analysis from the basis of a favourite rider, I allow the data to form a picture, so it appears that the data for Sagan is not as compelling as it once was, I accept that.

Once the break formed and even before GVA's crash took the impetus out of the chase, I thought it was clear that the break were away since KAT through Paolini didn't contribute to the chase for Kristoff, and Kolobnev didn't do enough at the early stage -- and that it looked like a level playing field between the three in the break. KAT lost this race for Kristoff, I believe.

Sep definitely looks like he has held his spring classics form in SB and OHN by overlooking KBK. That was an uncharacteristic mistake for someone of his quality over preferred territory, and that's a slight worry, but it's still way too early to call outright, beyond building positions, I would suggest.

How was Benoot again? Great stuff from the kid!

Cheers,
SP

classy from thomas