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Volta Ciclista a Catalunya (2.UWT)
Although Catalunya is in some ways overshadowed by the Classics that bookend the race, this has the potential to be a very entertaining week long stage race - it often is. The parcours looks exciting as ever and most of the top stage racers are here to stretch their legs and test their opponents before the summer's Grand Tours. This will probably be the last time we see Froome and Contador match up before the Tour de France, and those two get the headlines but they are taken on by a whole host of other top riders as well. There's no time trial so Wedneday's Stage 3 and Thursday's Stage 5 are the two stages that look like they will be decisive in GC terms. Stage 3 has a number of categorised climbs but it is probably Stage 4 with the summit finish at La Molina that will see the winner crowned. More or less the same stage was won by Purito last year and that gave him the outright title. At first glance I'd be tempted to look away from the big two names and see if there can be some value found elsewhere, however looking at the books and Valverde is favourite anyway.
Monday 23 March - Stage 1 » Calella › Calella (191.1k) (medium mountain/flat)
Tuesday 24 March - Stage 2 » Mataró › Olot (195k) (medium mountain/flat)
Wednesday 25 March - Stage 3 » Girona › Girona (159.6k) (mountain)
Thursday 26 March - Stage 4 » Tona › La Molina (191k) (mountain)
Friday 27 March - Stage 5 » Alp › Valls (197k) (medium mountain)
Saturday 28 March - Stage 6 » Cervera › Port Aventura (197.7k) (medium mountain/flat)
Sunday 29 March - Stage 7 » Barcelona › Barcelona (123.5k) (hilly circuit)
Previous Winners
2014 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2013 | MARTIN Daniel
2012 | ALBASINI Michael
2011 | SCARPONI Michele
2010 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2009 | VALVERDE Alejandro
2008 | VELOSO Gustavo Cesar
2007 | KARPETS Vladimir
2006 | CAñADA David
2005 | POPOVYCH Yaroslav
2014 Volta a Catalunya
1.RODRíGUEZ Joaquim29:41:34
2.CONTADOR Alberto 0:04
3.VAN GARDEREN Tejay 0:07
4.BARDET Romain 0:10
5.QUINTANA Nairo,,
6.FROOME Christopher 0:17
7.TALANSKY Andrew 0:18
8.POZZOVIVO Domenico 0:26
9.BARGUIL Warren 0:42
10.KIšERLOVSKI Robert 0:48
Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Volta_Ciclista_a_Catalunya_2015-startlist
Market
Valverde 10/3
Froome 5/1
Contador 11/2
Porte 16/1
Uran 18/1
Martin 20/1
Van Garderen 28/1
Bardet 33/1
Kelderman 33/1
Poels 33/1
Betancur 40/1
Talansky 50/1
Pozzovivo 50/1
Aru 80/1
Although Catalunya is in some ways overshadowed by the Classics that bookend the race, this has the potential to be a very entertaining week long stage race - it often is. The parcours looks exciting as ever and most of the top stage racers are here to stretch their legs and test their opponents before the summer's Grand Tours. This will probably be the last time we see Froome and Contador match up before the Tour de France, and those two get the headlines but they are taken on by a whole host of other top riders as well. There's no time trial so Wedneday's Stage 3 and Thursday's Stage 5 are the two stages that look like they will be decisive in GC terms. Stage 3 has a number of categorised climbs but it is probably Stage 4 with the summit finish at La Molina that will see the winner crowned. More or less the same stage was won by Purito last year and that gave him the outright title. At first glance I'd be tempted to look away from the big two names and see if there can be some value found elsewhere, however looking at the books and Valverde is favourite anyway.
Monday 23 March - Stage 1 » Calella › Calella (191.1k) (medium mountain/flat)
Tuesday 24 March - Stage 2 » Mataró › Olot (195k) (medium mountain/flat)
Wednesday 25 March - Stage 3 » Girona › Girona (159.6k) (mountain)
Thursday 26 March - Stage 4 » Tona › La Molina (191k) (mountain)
Friday 27 March - Stage 5 » Alp › Valls (197k) (medium mountain)
Saturday 28 March - Stage 6 » Cervera › Port Aventura (197.7k) (medium mountain/flat)
Sunday 29 March - Stage 7 » Barcelona › Barcelona (123.5k) (hilly circuit)
Previous Winners
2014 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2013 | MARTIN Daniel
2012 | ALBASINI Michael
2011 | SCARPONI Michele
2010 | RODRíGUEZ Joaquim
2009 | VALVERDE Alejandro
2008 | VELOSO Gustavo Cesar
2007 | KARPETS Vladimir
2006 | CAñADA David
2005 | POPOVYCH Yaroslav
2014 Volta a Catalunya
1.RODRíGUEZ Joaquim29:41:34
2.CONTADOR Alberto 0:04
3.VAN GARDEREN Tejay 0:07
4.BARDET Romain 0:10
5.QUINTANA Nairo,,
6.FROOME Christopher 0:17
7.TALANSKY Andrew 0:18
8.POZZOVIVO Domenico 0:26
9.BARGUIL Warren 0:42
10.KIšERLOVSKI Robert 0:48
Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Volta_Ciclista_a_Catalunya_2015-startlist
Market
Valverde 10/3
Froome 5/1
Contador 11/2
Porte 16/1
Uran 18/1
Martin 20/1
Van Garderen 28/1
Bardet 33/1
Kelderman 33/1
Poels 33/1
Betancur 40/1
Talansky 50/1
Pozzovivo 50/1
Aru 80/1
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Replies: 44
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I've taken a couple of punts on the outright at larger prices on Aru 80/1, Rolland 250/1 and Elissonde 300/1.
Stage 1 has got a fair few lumps but most of the final 50km is downhill or flat and there's every chance this ends in a sprint. I was tempted to back Mezgec as his Giant team should be flying after Sunday, but I don't think he's been in the best form so I've taken the 9/2 on Coquard who I suspect is the fastest man in this field, as well as a smaller each way on JJ Roqas at 22/1. |
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Monday 23 March - Stage 1 » Calella › Calella (191.1k) (medium mountain/flat)
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Tuesday 24 March - Stage 2 » Mataró › Olot (195k) (medium mountain/flat)
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Wednesday 25 March - Stage 3 » Girona › Girona (159.6k) (mountain)
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Thursday 26 March - Stage 4 » Tona › La Molina (191k) (mountain)
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Friday 27 March - Stage 5 » Alp › Valls (197k) (medium mountain)
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Saturday 28 March - Stage 6 » Cervera › Port Aventura (197.7k) (medium mountain/flat)
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Sunday 29 March - Stage 7 » Barcelona › Barcelona (123.5k) (hilly circuit)
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Only other thing to say is that we've again got live coverage on Eurosport, starts today at 2.30pm
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Added Lorenzo Manzin, the young FDJ sprinter for Stage 1. I think he will have Kevin Reza looking after him so be interesting to see how he goes.
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66/1ew
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Not getting involved until I see how this tour is playing out -- it's difficult to match-up form lines, even though Froome is one up over Bertie after that entertaining Stage 4 climb into Alto de Allanadas of the tour of Andalucia, recently. It looked like it should have been between the two of them last year also, however Purito had other ideas on the climb and more accurately the steep final ramp into La Molina (Alp). Moreover, there doesn't appear to be a definitive mountain (queen) stage, and that might bring in someone like Dan Martin. Wait and see for now, for me. Nice job with the thread, MC.
Good luck to all, SP |
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Break of three (Rolland, Patierski, LeClerq) have just gone over the Cat 2 climb, having done 111km and have a surprisingly large gap of 11mins considering the amount of climbing talent between the three of them.
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Well this isn't ideal for my bets on the sprinters for stage 1 but it's pretty damn good news for my 250/1 on Rolland for the GC!
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Amazing result for you MC, still early days and the peloton closed down a chunk of time by the end, but I am now willing to cheer Rolland on with you -- great stuff!
My apologies for mentioning that there's no queen stage, obviously La Molina and that punchy ramp is part of this tour, and will likely decide the winner. Go Rolland for MC at 250/1! Cheers, SP |
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Yes mate I think the GC door is still open for the top contenders but looking at last year on La Molina the first 48 riders finished within a minute of the stage winner TJVG so hopefully he won't drop too much time there. It should make it quite interesting though, you'd think Europcar will struggle to contain all the attacks on some of the lumpy stages and we should see some attacks from distance.
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Stage 2
The fastmen are the favourites again for tomorrow's stage but as I see it the final climb near the end works out at about 5% for 5km, and reaches a maximum gradient of over 10%. That shouldn't be too much for sprinters to get over under normal circumstances but this is very close to the end of the stage so the pace will be high, and more importantly the GC guys have got time to make back and I don't see them missing any opportunity to get some seconds or distance Rolland. I've backed Valverde 16/1 and Froome 150/1 each way as well as the one fast man that could make it over the top if the pace is up, Caleb Ewan at 14/1. |
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I'm going to follow you in with those bets for small stakes, MC -- you're absolutely switched on here! SP
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No live pictures due to bad weather. Again.
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No attacks from the GC guys over the final climb but the pace was high enough for Coquard and some other sprinters to go off the back and Alejandro Valverde wins!
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Rojas 2nd and Elmiger 3rd
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Yes! MC!
 Valverde wins! Excellent stuff mate -- keep it going please... SP |
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Stage 3
This an interesting stage. A whole heap of classified climbs but none of them are that big, despite the categories they've been given. We could well see a fast paced race, and we may find a few contenders don't have the legs, but personally I'd be surprised if we see anyone put too much time into Rolland. With the final ascent and descent of the Alt Des Angels at Girona, it looks like a perfect stage for Valverde again with the challenging and technical descent, and he'll certainly be keen to make some time and get more bonus. At 6/4 though I'm willing to take a chance elsewhere. The other interesting aspect for tomorrow is that so many of the peloton are based around these hills, notably Garmin Cannondale and Dan Martin 40/1. Martin classes this as his home race and he's got an amzing record here. He won the GC in 2013 as well as coming 2nd in 2009 & 2011 and 4th in 2012. The chances are that the outright has gone now for this year but the motivation will be there to do something and this may be more like his sort of stage than Thursday's mountain finish. I've also taken a chance on Kelderman at 16/1 and Barguil at 66/1. |
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Okay, I'm in, no questions asked -- 3 bets at small stakes with Valverde as banker. SP
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Wow what a superb stage that was. Dan Martin gets into the final group but they somehow let Pozzovivo escape and Martin has to settle for 3rd. Still some decent place money at 40/1.
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Rolland now odds on with PP for Volta a Catalunya outright
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Stage 4
This is probably Contador et al's last chance to make the time back on Rolland. We can expect a fast pace and quite posibly attacks from distance. They will also all want the time bonuses. In my eyes this means we probably won't see a breakaway win, and as a result we need to concentrate on the out and out climbers. Contador is rightly favourite, but 4/6 isn't for me. Chris Froome had a bad day today, but PP have opened up here at 22/1 and that is a massive overreaction. He might not be in top shape - why would he be with the Tour almost 4 months away? - but we saw in Andalucia that Froome got dropped one day in the mountains before roaring back the next day to distance everyone. I'll also have a dart at Aru for this, he is aiming at the Giro rather than the Tour and I feel he's in good nick as he showed today. PP's opening gambit is only 16/1 though, so I'm going to wait and see what everyone else comes up with. |
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Actual Stage 4
This is probably Contador et al's last chance to make the time back on Rolland. We can expect a fast pace and quite posibly attacks from distance. They will also all want the time bonuses. In my eyes this means we probably won't see a breakaway win, and as a result we need to concentrate on the out and out climbers. Contador is rightly favourite, but 4/6 isn't for me. Chris Froome had a bad day today, but PP have opened up here at 22/1 and that is a massive overreaction. He might not be in top shape - why would he be with the Tour almost 4 months away? - but we saw in Andalucia that Froome got dropped one day in the mountains before roaring back the next day to distance everyone. I'll also have a dart at Aru for this, he is aiming at the Giro rather than the Tour and I feel he's in good nick as he showed today. PP's opening gambit is only 16/1 though, so I'm going to wait and see what everyone else comes up with. |
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Didn't get any more than 16s for Aru so decided to take that.
Froome 22/1 Aru 16/1 |
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Tempted to trade out of your Rolland bet, MC?
If this goes early I can't see him sticking with the big boy. I've basically taken the day off to watch this, so the Spanish production team better not be feeling like a siesta today. |
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Had small dabbles at Pantano and Arroyo. Will do most of my betting live hopefully.
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No mate, I'm letting it ride. No guts no glory. I've got Froome and Aru to win the stage, and I think Rolland will lose time but I'm hoping he can keep it under a minute. Even if he get distanced by the big boys there should be other groups in behind he can work with to restrict his losses. Here's hoping anyway. And even if he does get beat it would take an epic meltdown to get him off the podium.
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I've basically taken the day off to watch this, so the Spanish production team better not be feeling like a siesta today
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And luckily they decided to work today! Only for an hour though, so last 30km. That was interesting in the extreme, wont spoil it in case anyone hasn't seen it, but that should influence the Giro prices.
Safe to say I'm still waiting for my pre-off choices to cross the line! |
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Nice one CJ, I haven't seen it, now looking forward to it! SP
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I haven't seen it yet either but I'm massively regretting letting my Rolland GC bet stand now
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Stage 5
Climbing isn't too hard today but I'm not sure the out and out fast men will be there at the end. I've gone with Valverde 13/2 on here. |
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What a race this is! Echelons appear on the long draggy climb - De Clerq isolated and dropped.
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Valverde has gone, they won't catch him now!!!
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