Strade Bianchi - Saturday 7 March

Gilbert on his way to victory in 2011

Gilbert crosses the line

Shot of the peloton from 2014

Kwiatowski wins solo after dropping Sagan on the final climb in Siena

ROUTE 2015



LAST KMS 2015

Headline News for Strade Bianchi

Simon Gerrans makes his return from injury in Strade Bianchi. Although this profile suits him down to the ground he will be well short of match fitness and this is the first time Orica have entered this race. Gerrans will be using this as a warm up for the Ardennes Classics and has Catalunya on the agenda before Amstel Gold and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Peter Sagan is unsurprisingly going to be Saxo Tinkoff's team leader in Strade Bianchi. Sagan finished 2nd in this race in both 2013 and 2014 and is looking for his first win for his new team after a number of placed finishes so far in the Middle East races. Saxo will bring a strong team in support of the Beast. Sagan will be short if not outright favourite this year.

Other favourites and leaders could be Zdenek Stybar (Etixx-QuickStep), Simon Gerrans, Sep Vanmarcke (LottoNL-Jumbo) and Fabian Cancellara (Trek Factory Racing). 2013 winner Moreno Moser leads the new-look Cannondale Garmin team.

PP have priced this up now and unsurprisingly Sagan is 7/2 favourite. I like Cancellara at 10/1. He's already said he is focussing on winning more races this year and has looked pretty sharp already coming second in the Qatar and winning a stage at Oman. I couldn't put anyone off Valverde at 7/1. I'd rather back him each way than Sagan to win at 7/2. The other person I 'm willing to take a chance on is Adam Yates. I've already said that Gerrans is unlikely to win this and Yates is probably Orica's next best chance. I've taken a couple of quid at 200/1, again with PP.

Both ew
Cancellara 10/1
Yates 200/1

Stybar, Valverde and Van Avermaet to fight out the finish

"Valverde is a solid each way bet and seems certain to finish 3rd like he seems to in all major races"

Stybar wins, Van Avarmaet 2nd, Valverde 3rd

CJ, he was 9/10 (or better) for a very long way in the break of three, and within the final 3kms he was 7/10 -- so there was certainly some resistance in the market against him winning. I wasn't trading, in fact I didn't even have a wager, was just enjoying watching the race, but I remember thinking that it was strange that Valverde wasn't much much shorter throughout the race, given the punchy finish and his strong credentials over such - made-to-order - terrain.

I don't think it's necessarily fair to call Stybar a sprinter, though. He has an impressive Cyclo-cross background so he has always been a hard rider, since the discipline demands it, and if you go over some of his rides in the Tour of Wallonia last year when he was strictly working for team-mate Meersman, who ended-up winning the race because of Stybar's work, he was clearly the strongest rider in the race by a fair margin, and those roads are some of the hardest around, requiring punchy characteristics in equal measure with high-end power. This is supported by GVA winning Tour of Wallonia in '11 and '13 and more recently, winning the GP Wallonie last year. Sprinters don't win such races, I don't think sprinters go anywhere near Wallonia.

In any case, GVA looked tired and Valverde did a fair bit of work, I believe he made the initial selection and drove the speed when Spartacus was trying to get back on. Yes, he should have won it on that finish, however Stybar and GVA were always in with a shout I thought, given their quality, although GVA looked tired nearing the end. SP

I don't think either Stybar or GVA are really sprinters in the way my previous comment sounded, in fact in a sprint finish I'd probably throw a few quid at Valverde out of the the three. Caveats on there being a wheel to follow etc etc.

I saw the last 30k and I'm not sure I saw Valverde really working, he was putting his nose into the wind more than usual, but I'm not sure you can attribute that to his failure at the end. Was he driving the group? I'll re-watch it, but at the time I thought it was his usual do just enough attitude.

After all that I was really happy that Stybar won, after the altercation with the fan in 2013? where he looked the strongest and got taken out, this win has been coming. I think Stybar is completely underrated because of his Cyclo-X background at least in betting terms.

Will watch it again tonight and make my thoughts known after. It's no secret that I'm not a fan of Valverde and his 'tactics' so I might be falling back on the same old Valverde line. His record of being a success while still failing abjectly is only rivaled really be GVA, so we should have known what was going to happen with that final group.

Stybar also seems to be a nice guy on the bike. After sitting on the back of GVA and Vanmarcke at the Omloop he didn't contest the sprint and lead them out, not sure Lefevere and his federation probably wouldn't have been happy with that. One problem for Stybar seems to be misfortune, he seems to find himself in the wrong place at the wrong time too often, not sure if that's luck or form.

I would've liked to have watched it again myself CJ, and I usually record the classics, but the HD was a little full and my sister gets angry if she misses some Yankee show as a result of my selfishness. Nevertheless, I will defer to your judgement, and I accept Stybar was a deserving winner on account of how much work he actually contributed. This result might point to a bigger problem for Valverde come TdF time though, but at this stage of the season it may be prudent to follow his results/riding and establish a pattern on the back of - what many agreed - was a shock result for him. SP