Cycling
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With Spoilsports going e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6 and even Padds pushing the boat out to go e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 I don't see any reason why anyone would spend a single penny on Betfair to bet on this.
Unfortunately, they will take this as another reason not to take cycling betting seriously, despite the fact that it is the fastest growing spectator, particpator and betting sport in this country.
The parcours looks too hilly for the pure sprinters and too easy for the genuine climbers.
Gerrans is a worthy favourite, he looked awesome in Canada, and has pretty much nailed all his season's targets. Whilst he isn't exactly Cav London 2012 hot, other teams will be wary of helping Australia too much to bring any break back. I can't put anyone off backing him, but he will be the most marked man. It may be worth taking a couple of the early morning break IR.
I'm not sure Cancellara has the sprint anymore to win this from a select group, so he may have to win solo, and I'm happy to go against him, but I do see him as likely podium material in a number of scenarios. Valverde is short, but if the climbs on the last lap are taken very strongly, he has the best kick of the climbers. Personally I think there will be faster men than him still there, so Im happy to rule him out. Kwiatkowski and Degenkolb are both strong possibles if it comes down to a sprint from a select group, and both are in very good form.
With the enhanced place terms there are a few at a longer price that are starting to look a bit attractive. I can't imagine Ben Swift as a World Champion but 80/1 5 places doesn't look a bad shout and I'm on. He's certainly one that has shown the ability to get over climbs and still finish fast. Nacer Bouhanni has shown his climbing ability on more than one occasion this season, and he's certainly one that would beat Gerrans in a sprint if they were both there. I've taken him 50/1 6 places. Peter Sagan has not turned into the winning machine we all expected him to, yet, but he could well be there at the finish and defy a small team. 14/1 5 places makes him an attractive betting proposition. Dumoulin and Gallopin are other realistic options for the French should Bouhanni not still be there, Bling Matthews is a good Plan B for the Aussies and Rui Costa has proven himself tactically time and time again. Another who seems to know when to go is Ramunas Navardauskas. He seems to have the right combination of fast finish and ability on the climbs to threaten here, and he is my last pick.
** Ben Swift 80/1 5 places
*** Peter Sagan 14/1 6 places
* Nacer Bouhanni 50/1 5 places
** Ramunas Navaraduskas 33/1 5 places
Unfortunately, they will take this as another reason not to take cycling betting seriously, despite the fact that it is the fastest growing spectator, particpator and betting sport in this country.
The parcours looks too hilly for the pure sprinters and too easy for the genuine climbers.
Gerrans is a worthy favourite, he looked awesome in Canada, and has pretty much nailed all his season's targets. Whilst he isn't exactly Cav London 2012 hot, other teams will be wary of helping Australia too much to bring any break back. I can't put anyone off backing him, but he will be the most marked man. It may be worth taking a couple of the early morning break IR.
I'm not sure Cancellara has the sprint anymore to win this from a select group, so he may have to win solo, and I'm happy to go against him, but I do see him as likely podium material in a number of scenarios. Valverde is short, but if the climbs on the last lap are taken very strongly, he has the best kick of the climbers. Personally I think there will be faster men than him still there, so Im happy to rule him out. Kwiatkowski and Degenkolb are both strong possibles if it comes down to a sprint from a select group, and both are in very good form.
With the enhanced place terms there are a few at a longer price that are starting to look a bit attractive. I can't imagine Ben Swift as a World Champion but 80/1 5 places doesn't look a bad shout and I'm on. He's certainly one that has shown the ability to get over climbs and still finish fast. Nacer Bouhanni has shown his climbing ability on more than one occasion this season, and he's certainly one that would beat Gerrans in a sprint if they were both there. I've taken him 50/1 6 places. Peter Sagan has not turned into the winning machine we all expected him to, yet, but he could well be there at the finish and defy a small team. 14/1 5 places makes him an attractive betting proposition. Dumoulin and Gallopin are other realistic options for the French should Bouhanni not still be there, Bling Matthews is a good Plan B for the Aussies and Rui Costa has proven himself tactically time and time again. Another who seems to know when to go is Ramunas Navardauskas. He seems to have the right combination of fast finish and ability on the climbs to threaten here, and he is my last pick.
** Ben Swift 80/1 5 places
*** Peter Sagan 14/1 6 places
* Nacer Bouhanni 50/1 5 places
** Ramunas Navaraduskas 33/1 5 places
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any prices around for the under 23 and junior road races?
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Bet £3.65 have got prices up but I can't get more than £1ew on with them.
I've added Wilco Kelderman 200/1 6 places. Dumoulin is Holland's leader by all accounts but heard some chatter among the peloton that there is no way the sprinters or even some of the punchers contest this finish (if so bang go my Swift and Bouhanni bets). The climbs aren't too bad but the descents are technical and the peloton will be strung out. This means positioning is everything and you need someone that can climb. It should still be a sprint though, albeit a much smaller group. Kelderman can beat most of the top climbers in a finish if he's still there. |
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Sonny Colbrelli is a very, very good bet for me at 100/1 each way top 6.
He is flying under the radar just now. He had a really good San Remo earlier in the year which is heartening regards the distance and has good form from the Tour of Britain and a few lesser wins at the Pantani Memorial and the di Prato. The rest of the Italian team will try to launch off in attacks or put work in but Sonny will be kept should there be a sprint off a reduced field which I think he will go very close in. |
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Judging from the wonderful Womens race today the climbs are very manageable and the sprinters were very much to the fore at the finish although maybe not the top ranked sprinters.The climbs are not tough enough for the climbers and only an inconvenience for the sprinters. You can see why Gerrans is favourite probably by default as an inbetween type rider. It would be very hard to rule out Degenkolb despite his injury, Bling Mathhews can climb a little and Kwiatowski is back on Stade Bianchi form. Strong riders like Kristoff must also come into the equation over this course. Sagan did not look fit at all durig the Vuelta so i would be happy to rule him out as i would Valverde as the course is too quick for him although he does descend well.
I always look for some value so i have gone for some long shots here I have Navardauskas @ 66/1 Van Marcke @ 100/1 Racing Post put up LL Sanchez and GVA in their paper this morning very strong Polish team represented 365 have some match bets i would take Degenkolb 6/5 to beat Sagan 8/13 Nibali 11/8 to beat Rodriguez |
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Cancellara is the one to beat here. It's a course for the strongmen and I don't see anyone being stronger. I'd even fancy him in a bunch sprint if he waited for that. He needs a bit of luck because it will be a crashfest with the predicted rain
Gilbert and Kolobnev look big prices (40 and 80 on here currently). |
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Kwiatkowski - it looked too early when he made his move but he gave it an excellent ride. Chapeau.
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and somehow a deserved winner, as are the other medals, though Spain won't be happy
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Cracking race and what guts by Kwia. Great race apart from the old doper on the podium once again.
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Good to see an attacker win. Another Gerrans win would have too much to bear - maybe he would have if he'd taken a turn in the final kms but I don't think he knows how
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Yeah cracking race that, and made up for Kwia. Youngest World Champ for a long long time.
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