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Really looking forward to this, less than 48 hours until the action gets underway, was hoping SP or MC might have put up some thoughts/ previews by now.
Looks a real cracker this year and with Froome, Contador and Talansky all re-routing here after their unfortunate early exits from the tour, its become the strongest field of the 3 grand tours this year. With so many riders with real GC ambitions, Quintana, Froome, Contador, Rodriguez, Horner, Uran, Talansky, Martin, Aru, Kelderman, Pinot, Valverde?, Esteban Chavez.
The bookies have Quintana favourite just ahead of Fromme, but both very short priced. They probably have it about right and they are the 2 most likely to be fighting it out. The big question will be whether Quintana can put the 2 mins+ in to froome in the mountains he will undoubtedy need to cover his losses in the ITT's. I'm struggling to see a value angle and it looks difficult to get involved in the GC betting at current prices. It could be possible that Purito or Contador offer some ew value but both have real doubts, Purito was way off at the tour is he now back in shape?? and is it too soon for Bertie after his injury especially as he has a much weaker support team here??
So my only speculative bets in the GC market at the minute are a small ew on ARU at 33/1, has probably only got one podium place to aim at behind the big 2 but as we saw at the tour anything could happen to them. I was very impressed by Aru at the Giro both his climbing and his TT, and if he improves again he could even give the big 2 a fright.
Have also had a bet on Talansky at 9/4 to finish top 10. Think this looks a big price as if he finishes the race he will surely be in the top 10, the question mark must be about his fitness after the tour, but i dont think he would be here if he wasnt back to feeling 100%. He may also not be the team leader here as he was at the tour, as Garmin have said they come in with 3 leaders?? though of the 3 i would have him as the more likely to be challenging over the whole 3 weeks.
The only other bet i have on for now is a small ew on MATTHEWS at 50/1 for the points jersey. It is usually hard for a pure sprinter to win the jersey at the Vuelta but i think someone who can mix it on the flat stages and handle himself on the more up n down stages may have a good chance this year. The bookies favour a climber winning but with so many good climbers here, and some excellent climbers like Pinot and Arredondo just targeting stage wins, it maybe that the points are shared around a lot on the really uphill stages. Matthews is capable of being top 5 at least on the real flats, and will be gunning for wins on the stages that have small climbs that will get rid of most of the other sprinters bar of course Sagan, but i think as the fresher of the 2 that Matthews may prove the stronger here and at almost 10 times the price of Sagan he is definitely the value.
Hopefully we won't get the injuries and illnesses we had at the tour, as if all the contenders stay fit and healthy we should be in for some great battles and a very exciting vuelta.
Gl all.
Looks a real cracker this year and with Froome, Contador and Talansky all re-routing here after their unfortunate early exits from the tour, its become the strongest field of the 3 grand tours this year. With so many riders with real GC ambitions, Quintana, Froome, Contador, Rodriguez, Horner, Uran, Talansky, Martin, Aru, Kelderman, Pinot, Valverde?, Esteban Chavez.
The bookies have Quintana favourite just ahead of Fromme, but both very short priced. They probably have it about right and they are the 2 most likely to be fighting it out. The big question will be whether Quintana can put the 2 mins+ in to froome in the mountains he will undoubtedy need to cover his losses in the ITT's. I'm struggling to see a value angle and it looks difficult to get involved in the GC betting at current prices. It could be possible that Purito or Contador offer some ew value but both have real doubts, Purito was way off at the tour is he now back in shape?? and is it too soon for Bertie after his injury especially as he has a much weaker support team here??
So my only speculative bets in the GC market at the minute are a small ew on ARU at 33/1, has probably only got one podium place to aim at behind the big 2 but as we saw at the tour anything could happen to them. I was very impressed by Aru at the Giro both his climbing and his TT, and if he improves again he could even give the big 2 a fright.
Have also had a bet on Talansky at 9/4 to finish top 10. Think this looks a big price as if he finishes the race he will surely be in the top 10, the question mark must be about his fitness after the tour, but i dont think he would be here if he wasnt back to feeling 100%. He may also not be the team leader here as he was at the tour, as Garmin have said they come in with 3 leaders?? though of the 3 i would have him as the more likely to be challenging over the whole 3 weeks.
The only other bet i have on for now is a small ew on MATTHEWS at 50/1 for the points jersey. It is usually hard for a pure sprinter to win the jersey at the Vuelta but i think someone who can mix it on the flat stages and handle himself on the more up n down stages may have a good chance this year. The bookies favour a climber winning but with so many good climbers here, and some excellent climbers like Pinot and Arredondo just targeting stage wins, it maybe that the points are shared around a lot on the really uphill stages. Matthews is capable of being top 5 at least on the real flats, and will be gunning for wins on the stages that have small climbs that will get rid of most of the other sprinters bar of course Sagan, but i think as the fresher of the 2 that Matthews may prove the stronger here and at almost 10 times the price of Sagan he is definitely the value.
Hopefully we won't get the injuries and illnesses we had at the tour, as if all the contenders stay fit and healthy we should be in for some great battles and a very exciting vuelta.
Gl all.
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Just got back from 2 weeks in Spain tonight. Can't wait for the action to start with this. Will try and add my thoughts as we go along.
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