TdF Stage 21. Parade to Paris.

The last stage of the Tour is a 138km parade from Evry into Paris with some French bubbles, perhaps the odd cigar since Purito is still in the peloton, and some congratulatory displays involving the jersey wearers. However, once the first of the eight circuits begin around cycling’s answer to the football stadium, the Champs-Elysees becomes electric and the speed of the peloton rises considerably.

I recall from last year that CJ reminded me of Vino’s breakaway win in 2005, and there was also the 1994 solo win by Frenchman Eddy Seigneur prior. It’s clearly a rare thing on these famous cobblestones, but going on those dates it looks like it occurs about once every decade, so it would be nice to see it happen again this year. I wouldn’t be backing anyone in ante-post, but clearly a very strong man is required to succeed, and given this is going to be Jens Voigt’s last lap in Paris, I think he’ll attempt a fairy tale ending with such a move. Elmiger and Gautier wouldn’t surprise with trying their hand, but I think Gallopin is also a candidate worthy of keeping an eye on in the IR stage market if the right circumstances develop.

The sprinters prize this stage highly though, and it is more likely that what we’ll see is a bunch sprint involving the typical candidates involved in the sprinters’ stages prior. The thing I looked at last year was the Manx Missile’s unbeaten strike-rate on this Champs Elysees circuit, and remarked that Kittel looked like the fresh rider on the sprinters’ scene. He confirmed that opinion by winning and taking his win tally to four. If he wins again this year, he’ll repeat with four wins, and I think that’s a very strong factor to consider, and am pleased to see that some value might come back into his price. I think the reason for that is on account of him having a tough ride in the Pyrenees, and that was confirmed by him not handling the cat.4 Monbazillac climb late in stage 19 when Navardauskas won, and where he went out the back quite easily. Nevertheless, Kittel barely turned a pedal in anger in the ITT, and whilst he is clearly tired the adrenalin of the final lap should charge him with enough energy to win. I’d want evens to get involved, though.

It’s difficult to know how such a young 22yo French rider will cope with the intensity of this stage finish in his Tour debut, but there are qualities I have warmed to since MC brought Arnaud Demare to my attention earlier in the season, and I think he is capable of rising to the occasion with a big finish here. Sound prospects. ** 25/1 E/W (lads).

Good luck to all,
SP