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SwingingPick
25 Jul 14 18:39
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 1,568 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
The penultimate stage of the Tour is the one and only ITT from Bergerac to Perigueux over a tough, hilly, and long 54km parcours suited to the power riders like Tony ‘Panzerwagon’ Martin. Unless Martin suffers a mechanical the win should be assured, however the price is way too short for me, and I’d want evens to get involved.

There are some riders who would have good E/W value for a podium position ride with some of the current prices being quoted, but these prices appear to be WIN ONLY as it appears that the Books aren’t offering place terms, at least not now, so I wouldn’t be backing anyone else unless E/W 1/4 1,2,3 terms were available.

Will return as the market settles, and/or if place terms become available.

Good luck to all,
SP
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Report Fela Kuti July 25, 2014 9:32 PM BST
Seems like Korals are doing e/w 1/4 odds 1,2,3
Report CJ70 July 25, 2014 10:38 PM BST
I think Tony is actually a good price tomorrow, but it's not my style to back at 1.3 in a race where anything can happen.

Valverde being heavily backed for a top 3, has he slipped to the press he's having a transfusion tonight or something? That's ridiculous.

Market isn't there at the moment but I'll be looking at Kiriyenka, Porte, Thomas to be up amongst the action, all decent at TT and SKY will be going all out to try and take something. Same reasons for Big Mick.

Durbo and Svein look undervalued as well.
Report SwingingPick July 26, 2014 7:17 AM BST
In terms of implied probability Martin is an accurate price, but to describe it as a good price when as we know anything can and usually does happen in cycling, may cause heartache for those whose style it is to back such short favourites. Agree that Durbo is unders.

If there's anyone looking for a rider to back for interests sake, Tanel Kangert looks very hard and in-form after toiling on the front of the AST train in the mountains. He had a very impressive ITT performance over a similar distance if not parcours, in stage 8 of the 2013 Giro to finish in 3rd place behind Wiggins and ahead of Nibali by 7secs. May surprise with a strong showing. Has claims. Consider. 33/1 Top 3 (365). SP
Report Fela Kuti July 26, 2014 10:56 AM BST
You can get Kangert in the without Tony Martin market at 100/1 e/w 1,2,3 with Billy Hills
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 11:08 AM BST
i had a cheeky tenner on danny pate at 330, some was even matched at 1000 lol. You never know.
Report buddeliea July 26, 2014 11:12 AM BST
Cheers Fela,SP, just had a small slice of 100 on Kangert.
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 11:17 AM BST
what happened to him, crashed? Losing almost 4' between IM2 and IM3ConfusedShocked
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 11:18 AM BST
the times are completely wrong bb66
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 11:21 AM BST
cimolai is more than 7 minutes behind petit at point 3
at finish he is less than 4 minutes behind petit
something is wrong with time keeping
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 11:23 AM BST
seems to be sth wrong with IM timing
Report Fela Kuti July 26, 2014 11:23 AM BST

Jul 26, 2014 -- 11:17AM, bb66 wrote:


what happened to him, crashed? Losing almost 4' between IM2 and IM3


Kangert doesn't start until 3.39pm

Report Fela Kuti July 26, 2014 11:25 AM BST
Start times

1 107 10:51:00 JI Cheng GIA CHN
2 112 10:53:00 CIMOLAI Davide LAM ITA
3 59 10:55:00 VIVIANI Elia CAN ITA
4 101 10:57:00 KITTEL Marcel GIA GER
5 121 10:59:00 DEMARE Arnaud FDJ FRA

6 177 11:01:00 PETIT Adrien COF FRA
7 57 11:03:00 MARINO Jean Marc CAN FRA
8 122 11:05:00 BONNET William FDJ FRA
9 22 11:07:00 ISAYCHEV Vladimir KAT RUS
10 109 11:09:00 VEELERS Tom GIA NED
11 6 11:11:00 PATE Danny SKY USA
12 218 11:13:00 JARRIER Benoit BSE FRA
13 204 11:15:00 DEMPSTER Zakkari TNE AUS
14 143 11:17:00 BURGHARDT Marcus BMC GER
15 135 11:19:00 GREIPEL André LTB GER
16 76 11:21:00 PETACCHI Alessandro OPQ ITA
17 214 11:23:00 FEILLU Romain BSE FRA
18 108 11:25:00 TIMMER Albert GIA NED
19 208 11:27:00 SCHILLINGER Andreas TNE GER
20 139 11:29:00 SIEBERG Marcel LTB GER
21 123 11:31:00 DELAGE Mickaël FDJ FRA
22 48 11:33:00 VANOTTI Alessandro AST ITA
23 77 11:35:00 RENSHAW Mark OPQ AUS
24 97 11:37:00 NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas GRS LTU
25 196 11:39:00 KLUGE Roger IAM GER
26 96 11:41:00 LANGEVELD Sebastian GRS NED
27 93 11:43:00 BAUER Jack GRS NZL
28 55 11:45:00 KOREN Kristijan CAN SLO
29 215 11:47:00 FONSECA Armindo BSE FRA
30 188 11:49:00 TUFT Svein OGE CAN
31 44 11:51:00 GRUZDEV Dmitriy AST KAZ
32 35 11:53:00 MORKOV Michael TCS DEN
33 216 11:55:00 GERARD Arnaud BSE FRA
34 24 11:57:00 PAOLINI Luca KAT ITA
35 65 11:59:00 LEEZER Thomas BEL NED

36 45 12:01:00 IGLINSKIY Maxim AST KAZ
37 155 12:03:00 GENE Yohann EUC FRA
38 94 12:05:00 HOWES Alex GRS USA
39 2 12:07:00 EISEL Bernhard SKY AUT
40 23 12:09:00 KRISTOFF Alexander KAT NOR
41 207 12:11:00 MENDES José TNE POR
42 184 12:13.00 DURBRIDGE Luke OGE AUS
43 104 12:15:00 DEGENKOLB John GIA GER
44 89 12:17:00 RIBLON Christophe ALM FRA
45 187 12:19:00 MEIER Christian OGE CAN
46 39 12:21:00 TOSATTO Matteo TCS ITA
47 58 12:23:00 SABATINI Fabio CAN ITA
48 69 12:25:00 WYNANTS Maarten BEL BEL
49 15 12:27:00 INTXAUSTI Benat MOV ESP
50 52 12:29:00 BODNAR Maciej CAN POL
51 212 12:31:00 BIDEAU Jean-Marc BSE FRA
52 102 12:33:00 CURVERS Roy GIA NED
53 183 12:35:00 CLARKE Simon OGE AUS
54 138 12:37:00 ROELANDTS Jurgen LTB BEL
55 174 12:39:00 LEMOINE Cyril COF FRA
56 219 12:41:00 VACHON Florian BSE FRA
57 27 12:43:00 SMUKULIS Gatis KAT LAT
58 153 12:45:00 COQUARD Bryan EUC FRA
59 178 12:47:00 SIMON Julien COF FRA
60 168 12:49:00 VOIGT Jens TFR GER
61 68 12:51:00 VANMARCKE Sep BEL BEL
62 4 12:53:00 LOPEZ GARCIA David SKY ESP
63 43 12:55:00 GRIVKO Andriy AST UKR
64 156 12:57:00 PICHOT Alexandre EUC FRA
65 126 12:59:00 PINEAU Cedric FDJ FRA

66 62 13:01:00 BOOM Lars BEL NED
67 87 13:03:00 MINARD Sébastien ALM FRA
68 165 13:05:00 RAST Gregory TFR SUI
69 32 13:07:00 BENNATI Daniele TCS ITA
70 162 13:09:00 BUSCHE Matthew TFR USA
71 79 13:11:00 TRENTIN Matteo OPQ ITA
72 103 13:13:00 DE KORT Koen GIA NED
73 17 13:15:00 PLAZA MOLINA Ruben MOV ESP
74 36 13:17:00 PAULINHO Sergio TCS POR
75 78 13:19:00 TERPSTRA Niki OPQ NED
76 179 13:21:00 TAARAMAE Rein COF EST
77 84 13:23:00 DUMOULIN Samuel ALM FRA
78 116 13:25:00 OLIVEIRA Nelson LAM POR
79 157 13:27:00 QUEMENEUR Perrig EUC FRA
80 198 13:29:00 REICHENBACH Sébastien IAM SUI
81 12 13:31:00 ERVITI OLLO Imanol MOV ESP
82 3 13:33:00 KIRYIENKA Vasil SKY BLR
83 49 13:35:00 WESTRA Lieuwe AST NED
84 132 13:37:00 BAK Lars Ytting LTB DEN
85 213 13:39:00 DELAPLACE Anthony BSE FRA
86 56 13:41:00 MARCATO Marco CAN ITA
87 86 13:43:00 KADRI Blel ALM FRA
88 172 13:45:00 EDET Nicolas COF FRA
89 125 13:47:00 LADAGNOUS Matthieu FDJ FRA
90 193 13:49:00 ELMIGER Martin IAM SUI
91 202 13:51:00 BARTA Jan TNE CZE
92 99 13:53:00 VAN SUMMEREN Johan GRS BEL
93 206 13:55:00 MACHADO Tiago TNE POR
94 158 13:57:00 REZA Kévin EUC FRA
95 182 13:59:00 ALBASINI Michael OGE SUI

96 145 14:01:00 OSS Daniel BMC ITA
97 205 14:03:00 HUZARSKI Bartosz TNE POL
98 164 14:05:00 IRIZAR Markel TFR ESP
99 186 14:07:00 KEUKELEIRE Jens OGE BEL
100 88 14:09:00 MONTAGUTI Matteo ALM ITA
101 14 14:11:00 HERRADA LOPEZ Jesus MOV ESP
102 152 14:13:00 ARASHIRO Yukiya EUC JPN
103 51 14:15:00 SAGAN Peter CAN SVK
104 136 14:17:00 HANSEN Adam LTB AUS
105 128 14:19:00 ROY Jérémy FDJ FRA
106 217 14:21:00 GUILLOU Florian BSE FRA
107 197 14:23:00 PINEAU Jérôme IAM FRA
108 73 14:25:00 GOLAS Michal OPQ POL
109 98 14:27:00 SLAGTER Tom Jelte GRS NED
110 83 14:29:00 CHEREL Mikael ALM FRA
111 95 14:31:00 KING Benjamin GRS USA
112 21 14:33:00 RODRIGUEZ Joaquim KAT ESP
113 209 14:35:00 VOSS Paul TNE GER
114 176 14:37:00 MOLARD Rudy COF FRA
115 75 14:39:00 MARTIN Tony OPQ GER
116 47 14:41:00 SCARPONI Michele AST ITA
117 53 14:43:00 DE MARCHI Alessandro CAN ITA
118 118 14:45:00 SERPA José Rodolfo LAM COL
119 113 14:47:00 DURASEK Kristijan LAM CRO
120 34 14:49:00 MAJKA Rafal TCS POL
121 144 14:51:00 MOINARD Amaël BMC FRA
122 146 14:53:00 SCHÄR Michael BMC SUI
123 159 14:55:00 VOECKLER Thomas EUC FRA
124 16 14:57:00 IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Jon MOV ESP
125 19 14:59:00 VISCONTI Giovanni MOV ITA

126 37 15:01:00 ROCHE Nicolas TCS IRL
127 66 15:03:00 TANKINK Bram BEL NED
128 148 15:05:00 VAN AVERMAET Greg BMC BEL
129 106 15:07:00 DUMOULIN Tom GIA NED
130 42 15:09:00 FUGLSANG Jakob AST DEN
131 192 15:11:00 CHAVANEL Sylvain IAM FRA
132 147 15:13:00 STETINA Peter BMC USA
133 199 15:15:00 WYSS Marcel IAM SUI
134 175 15:17:00 MATE MARDONES Luis Angel COF ESP
135 124 15:19:00 JEANNESSON Arnold FDJ FRA
136 134 15:21:00 GALLOPIN Tony LTB FRA
137 149 15:23:00 VELITS Peter BMC SVK
138 74 15:25:00 KWIATKOWSKI Michal OPQ POL
139 38 15:27:00 ROGERS Michael TCS AUS
140 154 15:29:00 GAUTIER Cyril EUC FRA
141 72 15:31:00 BAKELANTS Jan OPQ BEL
142 8 15:33:00 THOMAS Geraint SKY GBR
143 7 15:35:00 PORTE Richie SKY AUS
144 85 15:37:00 GASTAUER Ben ALM LUX
145 46 15:39:00 KANGERT Tanel AST EST
146 13 15:41:00 GADRET John MOV FRA
147 5 15:43:00 NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel SKY ESP
148 114 15:45:00 HORNER Christopher LAM USA
149 211 15:47:00 FEILLU Brice BSE FRA
150 64 15:49:00 KRUIJSWIJK Steven BEL NED
151 29 15:51:00 TROFIMOV Yury KAT RUS
152 131 15:53:00 VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen LTB BEL
153 161 15:55:00 SCHLECK Frank TFR LUX
154 151 15:57:00 ROLLAND Pierre EUC FRA

155 169 16:00:00 ZUBELDIA Haimar TFR ESP
156 201 16:03:00 KONIG Leopold TNE CZE
157 67 16:06:00 TEN DAM Laurens BEL NED
158 61 16:09:00 MOLLEMA Bauke BEL NED
159 141 16:12:00 VAN GARDEREN Tejay BMC USA
160 82 16:15:00 BARDET Romain ALM FRA
161 11 16:18:00 VALVERDE Alejandro MOV ESP
162 81 16:21:00 PERAUD Jean-Christophe ALM FRA
163 127 16:24:00 PINOT Thibaut FDJ FRA
164 41 16:27:00 NIBALI Vincenzo AST ITA
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 11:25 AM BST
IM3 of Demare, Kittel, Petit Devil
Report Fela Kuti July 26, 2014 11:26 AM BST
That's French time by the way.
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 11:26 AM BST
im3 is wrong. all others should be correct.
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 11:28 AM BST
now they corrected it but kittel still wrong there
Report CJ70 July 26, 2014 11:45 AM BST
This is going to be fun to trade then.. Must have lost a fortune due to dodgy timing over the last few years.
Report ExpertBoy July 26, 2014 12:46 PM BST
nibali and peraud for top 3 for me. I think the GC guys will blow all the times, apart from tony martin if nothing strange happens. How is the weather btw? That could be a huge factor
Report the swede July 26, 2014 1:24 PM BST
market hates Pinot. 3,95 for top 3 i hope could be some value
Report the swede July 26, 2014 1:24 PM BST
top 3 overall of course
Report CJ70 July 26, 2014 2:01 PM BST
Tony with a massive chainring. Looks like something Grabsch would use.
Report Happybacker July 26, 2014 2:08 PM BST
Backed Kwiatowski 251 ew and Thomas 25/1 ew for interest but expect Martin to win easily.

Have also backed Pinot to win gc without Nibali at 11/2. Think this is too big, yes Peraud and Valverde on paper appear to be better time trialists but i've got a feeling Pinot will beat them today. He is a young rider who  has improved with every time trial he has done, and finished ahead of Peraud in the TT at Romandie recently (admittedly with a small climb in it). He also looked the freshest of the 3 riders in the last couple of days, and i think he will leave everything out on the road today in his bid to stay on the podium.
Report the swede July 26, 2014 2:27 PM BST
Martin down to 1,05 hours before the contenders starting lol
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 2:34 PM BST
wind might get stronger
Report CJ70 July 26, 2014 2:47 PM BST
If anyone beats Martin it's going straight to the suspicious performances thread. Immense.
Report yeast July 26, 2014 2:52 PM BST
The coverage today is a joke. A TT without times on the TV.
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 2:59 PM BST
can't see him being challenged
Report casemoney July 26, 2014 3:04 PM BST
Be nice to see some in running times from the others for comparison Plain
Report CJ70 July 26, 2014 3:09 PM BST
Interesting fight for 7th. Haven't really seen enough of Konig in a TT to judge where he's at in relation to Ten Dam. Both should beat Mollema to 7th place.
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 3:13 PM BST
barta to win without martin traded for 1 at 200 ;-)
Report casemoney July 26, 2014 3:18 PM BST
Kwiatowski FINNISH ..
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 3:29 PM BST
nibali forgot to tie shoes lol
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 3:30 PM BST
König surprises me
Report the swede July 26, 2014 3:45 PM BST
market says pinot doing great against valverde, very nice
Report marychain1 July 26, 2014 3:45 PM BST
TJVG catching Mollema
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 3:45 PM BST
valverde 1 50 behind after p1
Report marychain1 July 26, 2014 3:45 PM BST
I've got Pinot to win without Nibali, hope he can hang on but in running tracker shows Peraud going faster Sad
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 3:47 PM BST
peraud only 42 seconds behind
Report marychain1 July 26, 2014 3:48 PM BST
Sky "Porte is in great form" Laugh
Report dom888 July 26, 2014 3:59 PM BST
swiss tv women just said if nibali can improve in the second part of the tt he could possibly beat martin loooooooool
is she on drugs :D
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 4:01 PM BST
she's a woman, that explains itSillySilly
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 4:04 PM BST
Peraud puncturedCry
Report bb66 July 26, 2014 4:08 PM BST
she also does wrong calculationsCryDevil
Report CJ70 July 26, 2014 4:17 PM BST
If Nibali beats Martin JC Peraud is likely to win the whole thing around September Laugh
Report marychain1 July 26, 2014 4:34 PM BST
Pinot 2nd? Shocked
Report marychain1 July 26, 2014 4:38 PM BST
Peraud 2nd Plain
Report CJ70 July 26, 2014 4:41 PM BST
That can't be right can it? Zubeldia overtakes Ten Dam and Mollema according to Eurosport.
Report marychain1 July 26, 2014 4:42 PM BST
Mollema rolled round like he was warming down
Report CJ70 July 26, 2014 4:46 PM BST
Ten Dam had 3 minutes on Zubeldia and managed to lose it.. Cry

Must be sickness in the camp? Otherwise I can't explain that.

Leopold on Eurosport.
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