TdF Stage 19.

Stage 19 from Maubourguet Pays Val d’Adour to Bergerac covers 209kms over relatively flat country, but an interesting cat.4 climb toward the end makes things interesting. At 1.3kms long and at a 7.6% gradient Monbazillac is certainly substantial enough for the puncheurs to gap the sprinters, however it comes some 13kms from the finish and the gap is unlikely to be big enough for them to maintain to the finish line. The sprinters teams will reform and organize, and they should be capable of setting it up for themselves. I think you’d need the climb to come some 5kms from the finish for the puncheurs to hold on, perhaps even 6kms, but double that is just too long for even a good bunch of combining hardmen to take it to the line. I therefore think we will see a bunch sprint.

I hope there’s no crashes, but this looks like it might be quite a nervous stage, and again IR plays might be best value.

Even though Peter Sagan has not had a win this Tour, he has been ultra consistent, and there is the very slight possibility that he gets over-excited on the Monbazillac unnecessarily, and either rides too hard or even attempts a TTT scenario with his CAN team. That would be something to see, but it's unlikely to happen.

** Alexander Kristoff Has two wins to his name in the Tour and the reason why I think he can make it three, is his ability to handle the slight fatigue such a small climb close to the finish might cause. His stage 12 win into Saint-Etienne proves his strength, and in fact confirms it since the Poggio in MSR this year is there to cause a similar form of weariness to the sprinters’ legs for the finale. Highly likely to make presence felt. Warrants respect. Main danger. 5/1 WIN ONLY (bet365).

Good luck to all,
SP