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18 Jul 14
20:13
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11 Jul 11
The 177km Stage 14 from Grenoble to Risoul is the one and only true Alps stage of the Tour, on account of the two famous climbs the riders will encounter.
First comes the cat.1 Col du Lautaret to 2,058m -- a 34km long climb at 3.9%. Then after a long descent, more than half of it being a power descent, the riders will begin the cat.H Col d'Izoard -- a 19km long climb at 6%, which is similar in length to the final climb of the previous stage 13; and whilst it appears slightly less steep it rises to a significantly higher elevation at 2,360m. Finally, the riders will encounter the cat.1 Montee de Risoul -- a 12.6km long climb at 6.9% which finishes at 1,855m.
There are a few factors which suggest that it might be prudent to look for IR plays, since it is difficult to know, 1.) who will and won’t recuperate well after such a hot and difficult stage?, 2.) who will cope well on an even tougher stage of climbing, with another forecast for a very hot day?, and 3.) will the GC group call a truce until the finale, in which case a breakaway is allowed to build a gap and likely win the stage?
I’m not sure anyone had an easy ride in the previous stage 13, but Nibali looks value at 4/1 if matched on here for a (*) WIN ONLY play, to get things started.
Good luck to all,
SP
First comes the cat.1 Col du Lautaret to 2,058m -- a 34km long climb at 3.9%. Then after a long descent, more than half of it being a power descent, the riders will begin the cat.H Col d'Izoard -- a 19km long climb at 6%, which is similar in length to the final climb of the previous stage 13; and whilst it appears slightly less steep it rises to a significantly higher elevation at 2,360m. Finally, the riders will encounter the cat.1 Montee de Risoul -- a 12.6km long climb at 6.9% which finishes at 1,855m.
There are a few factors which suggest that it might be prudent to look for IR plays, since it is difficult to know, 1.) who will and won’t recuperate well after such a hot and difficult stage?, 2.) who will cope well on an even tougher stage of climbing, with another forecast for a very hot day?, and 3.) will the GC group call a truce until the finale, in which case a breakaway is allowed to build a gap and likely win the stage?
I’m not sure anyone had an easy ride in the previous stage 13, but Nibali looks value at 4/1 if matched on here for a (*) WIN ONLY play, to get things started.
Good luck to all,
SP
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Replies: 23
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Nieve now he's got freedom to race for himself for me.Would have had easiest day of those climbing well enough to win.Michael Rogers my other fancy.Good luck.
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Nibali is best price 4/1 tomorrow andit will take a brave man to lay him at that price after his display so far in this tour
If Purito's performances dont attract the eyes of the doping committee then i dont know what will. If he burns off on a break tomorrow it is so reminiscent of Rassmussen that it will be scary! I have been slower than most to warm to the emerging talent of Teejay Van Garderen but i think he rode a storming race today and he looks the value tomorrow at 80/1 as he will be looking to progress up GC but also look for the White jersey This is a wide open stage and a breakaway might well stick tomorrow but i am not going in heavy because the stage looks too unpredictable but as a piece of value 80/1 TVG has got to be snapped up |
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why is nibali 8.4 then?
breakaway left to win stage? |
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Rogers and Nieve very short. Van Garderen can still continue to improve with a strong ride here and 90s looks good to me also, have added him as a saver as I agree that he'll be striving for a good result by the time they reach Paris, in order to lift his profile.
I think that the market thinks that Nibali doesn't need to win the stage as his GC gap is so commanding, but being consistent to my view that he'll want to dominate this race and to do so he'll want more stage wins, that price is massive value. Have increased stake. SP |
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thx im thinking nibali wants to be remembered as owning this tour,hope the GC group dont call a truce,is that common?
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TJvG no longer eligible for the white jersey
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17 man break.
J-Rod, Nieve, Taaramae & Roche look the most likely if the break stays away. |
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yap nice group there and astana happy to let them go
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Well p1ssed off!! looked at Taaramae earlier on here was about 150,watched a bit of Golf and forgot about it,now hes in the break. Just taken 33 with PP!!
Oh well. |
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taramae has no chance on this group. Majka or Nieve are very strong with Rodriguez
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We'll see how much time they allow this one to get. Not sure Astana will be fussed but with Thomas, Nieve and Kruiswijk up there some of the other teams may start riding to defend top 10's
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hope astana get interested
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Netapp chasing the break down.
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netap chasing hard
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lol netap
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5/2 on Nibali looks overpriced
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Brave ride by Majke to be fair,a pity the GC is such a non-event (apart from podium places)
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I want some of what he was on .
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Nibali didn't aim to win the stage today
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Just picking up on bb66's point, I agree that Nibali didn't aim for the stage win. If it wasn't for TNE coming to do their lion-share of the work in pushing the pace of the peloton at a crucial period of the race on the Col d'Izoard, I think the gap would have likely blown right out, and Nibali would have been satisfied. Nevertheless, TNE essentially created an artificial race through this work on the front, and that excited the race even more on the descent and the flat part prior to the final climb, where Peraud did almost all of the heavy-lifting for ALM's Bardet, but ended up holding his strength all the way to the top, finishing third just behind Nibali in a highly impressive ride. On the final climb, Nibali had to attack and show something, he had an easy ride up to that point and obviously had reserves of energy. At this point he would have wanted the stage win, however Majka in the final few kms Majka, who was tiring badly, found his second wind and sailed for home on sheer courage. Magnificent ride from the young Polish rider, I think that was a breakthrough ride. And also Peraud, amazing ride. Porte gone again as expected. Purito a little disappointing, as was Valverde, who had nothing when it counted even though team-mate and fellow countryman Ion Izagirre did help him a lot.
On a side-not, I fear OPQ have wrecked Kwiatkowski. Cracking stage. Cheers, SP |
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It makes you wonder how Froome would have done with such a weak team around him. To watch them repeatedly capitulate in the mountains you might think they're no longer a few pedals ahead of the testers.
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I think Nibali could have reeled in Majka attacking with 100%, but he showed only 80%, either saving himself for the last week or simply wanted to avoid showing cannibalistic attitudes, after he had already distanced his GC rivals. Nontheless a good effort from Majka
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nibali in training mode ffs non trier for stage win
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