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12 Jul 14
19:15
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Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
Stage 9 of the Tour and there is no rest for the riders with an even tougher day of climbing, this time over six categorized climbs in the Vosges mountains on the 170km route from Gerardmer to Mulhouse.
The GC selection is likely to take place on the main climb of the day, the cat.1 Le Markstein at 1,183m -- however it will not signal the end of cateogorized climbing for the day as another climb awaits shortly after with the cat.3 Grand Ballon topping-out at 1,336m.
I believe that whilst the stage is tailor-made for a long-range mountain specialist, the likelihood of a breakaway succeeding is not assured, since the power descents after the final climb down to the town of Cernay, along with the 20km time-trial to Mulhouse along the flats, will leave a rider or small group of riders exposed to a well-combining chase group, which is likely to be the remains of the early breakaway after reforming on the descent, or may even be the GC selection itself.
The chaos so many climbs usually cause on a stage like this leave so many permutations to the day’s proceedings that it might be more prudent to look for plays IR, nevertheless for interest I'm starting with:
Tiago Machado: He is not really a race-winning rider, although he has nevertheless won the Tour of Slovinia four-stage race as a lead-in for here. Finished thereabouts with some climbers on the previous stage, but more importantly he is on a stage-hunting team. Should be a 1000/1. 1/2* 200/1 E/W (b365).
Good luck to all,
SP
The GC selection is likely to take place on the main climb of the day, the cat.1 Le Markstein at 1,183m -- however it will not signal the end of cateogorized climbing for the day as another climb awaits shortly after with the cat.3 Grand Ballon topping-out at 1,336m.
I believe that whilst the stage is tailor-made for a long-range mountain specialist, the likelihood of a breakaway succeeding is not assured, since the power descents after the final climb down to the town of Cernay, along with the 20km time-trial to Mulhouse along the flats, will leave a rider or small group of riders exposed to a well-combining chase group, which is likely to be the remains of the early breakaway after reforming on the descent, or may even be the GC selection itself.
The chaos so many climbs usually cause on a stage like this leave so many permutations to the day’s proceedings that it might be more prudent to look for plays IR, nevertheless for interest I'm starting with:
Tiago Machado: He is not really a race-winning rider, although he has nevertheless won the Tour of Slovinia four-stage race as a lead-in for here. Finished thereabouts with some climbers on the previous stage, but more importantly he is on a stage-hunting team. Should be a 1000/1. 1/2* 200/1 E/W (b365).
Good luck to all,
SP
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sorry to be dumb but what do you mean Tiago Machado should be a 1000/1 shot if you're backing him at 200/1?
I am quite new to cycling so your writeups are really cool, thanks.
I am quite new to cycling so your writeups are really cool, thanks.
No worries Sam there are no dumb questions, mate. I can only request a price on BetFair, and I can only take what the Books are offering. To show the implied probability of Machado, the true price is what he should be on the exchange, but I'll take what's being offerred to get a bet on. Big discrepancy in price between the two, but it's a starting bet on a race which looks best for In-Running (IR) play. SP
**** are 5 places again tomorrow, it's paid off for me having had Gerrans and Pinot both come 5th in the last 2 days. Machado was one I looked at, a doubt for me was whether or not they'd let him get in the break on a day where there's every chance it could succeed when he is only 6 mins adrift on the GC.
I'm sure breakaway specialists will be popular like Hansen, Bakelants, Voigt, Voeckler, Feillu etc. I wonder whether Purito Rodriguez will get into the break and target the moutains classification. All the other polka dot jersey wannabes will try and get in the break as well.
Probably one to leave alone beforehand, but I've had a microstakes stab on Rodriguez 80/1 and Taaramae 125/1.
I'm sure breakaway specialists will be popular like Hansen, Bakelants, Voigt, Voeckler, Feillu etc. I wonder whether Purito Rodriguez will get into the break and target the moutains classification. All the other polka dot jersey wannabes will try and get in the break as well.
Probably one to leave alone beforehand, but I've had a microstakes stab on Rodriguez 80/1 and Taaramae 125/1.
I was at the top of Holme Moss last week wathcing Kadri pass for the points thinking this guy could be a contender for KOM....he's only just been added to that market today 
Tommy Voek was close behind last week on that climb and he's my pick for tomorrow...GL all.
Tommy Voek was close behind last week on that climb and he's my pick for tomorrow...GL all.
Lets try one more long shot for tomorrow
Ben King
Cristophe Riblon
Rein Taramae
I still have another name, but i will give it tomorrow, still waiting for correpondency
Ben King
Cristophe Riblon
Rein Taramae
I still have another name, but i will give it tomorrow, still waiting for correpondency
Thought 6mins was about the cut-off for a breakaway since the likely gap on the line wouldn't be beyond 3mins, but yes it's another highlight of a permutation for a stage like this. Riblon came out prior to the Tour with a plan to target a stage win in the Vosges, and after his countryman's win yesterday, he may feel inspired to attempt a breakaway on this stage. I won't be backing at ante-post since his results suggest he's not comfortable on his bike. Ben King is on GT debut, has never won a pro-race, and I don't think he will be permitted to go since Talansky will require his assistance, in any case. Taaramae has it in him to win a stage like this. SP
I've bet Rudy Mollard and Alessandro di Marchi, both win and place
Ok last name matched at @140
Janier Acevedo.
Good luck to all
Janier Acevedo.
Good luck to all
SwingingPick 13 Jul 14 09:03 Joined: 11 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 2,185 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
Thought 6mins was about the cut-off for a breakaway since the likely gap on the line wouldn't be beyond 3mins, but yes it's another highlight of a permutation for a stage like this. Riblon came out prior to the Tour with a plan to target a stage win in the Vosges, and after his countryman's win yesterday, he may feel inspired to attempt a breakaway on this stage. I won't be backing at ante-post since his results suggest he's not comfortable on his bike. Ben King is on GT debut, has never won a pro-race, and I don't think he will be permitted to go since Talansky will require his assistance, in any case. Taaramae has it in him to win a stage like this. SP
Ben King is young but tallented rider, already won some important races U23 and looks in good shape.
Riblon doesnt look very good, its true, but he likes this kind of stages and can give it a go.
Taramae still has done nothing, and Cofidis always tries to put a men there.
Acevedo said he will aim to a stage win, im hoping he will try something today, he surely has what's needed to win a stage like this one.
Good luck all
Thought 6mins was about the cut-off for a breakaway since the likely gap on the line wouldn't be beyond 3mins, but yes it's another highlight of a permutation for a stage like this. Riblon came out prior to the Tour with a plan to target a stage win in the Vosges, and after his countryman's win yesterday, he may feel inspired to attempt a breakaway on this stage. I won't be backing at ante-post since his results suggest he's not comfortable on his bike. Ben King is on GT debut, has never won a pro-race, and I don't think he will be permitted to go since Talansky will require his assistance, in any case. Taaramae has it in him to win a stage like this. SP
Ben King is young but tallented rider, already won some important races U23 and looks in good shape.
Riblon doesnt look very good, its true, but he likes this kind of stages and can give it a go.
Taramae still has done nothing, and Cofidis always tries to put a men there.
Acevedo said he will aim to a stage win, im hoping he will try something today, he surely has what's needed to win a stage like this one.
Good luck all
he has to try to leave Martin on the climb... i think hes the favourite here.
this time Spartacus couldn't spoil his party like in last year's Vuelta stage
Got two things right today, Rodriguez going for polka dots and keeping the bets few and small. Did an 80-miler of my own round North Lancs and Cumbria as my final prep so there was no in-play bets. Tomorrow looks very interesting.
No GC selection on the main climb, the peloton happy to just ride together on a day out. Was obviously pleased to find Machado in the 2nd group, and with only Martin up ahead a place chance was definitely on the cards, especially after Clay's de Marchi blew-up after the Panzerwagon rode over the top him. 
However Machado worked hard once on the flat approach toward the finish, and in such a big group with such strong riders like Spartacus and GVA to name just two, he was never going to land a good bet by finishing 2nd, or 3rd. 
Just for the forum regulars, a final reminder so we can put my theory to bed once and for all, since the evidence is no longer required:
---
8 Apr 14 10:48 SwingingPick
Tony Martin hasn’t ridden a one day classic all season and it looks like this one is going to be his one and only, at least until one or two of his home German classics (or indeed even the Worlds race) come around much later in the season. Martin doesn’t ride the pave and whilst he has ridden in the odd Flanders classic in his long career, his only one day classic win came in the same region of Holland as the AGR, in the 185 km Volta Limburg Classic in 2008, at a time when he was being developed as an ITT specialist. Of the one-day classics he has ridden repeatedly, the Ardennes classics come to focus, and particularly the AGR, which he has been involved in from 2008 to 2010, finishing 147/99/106. Not exactly impressive results, but certainly expected results from a rider who has been a very successful one-trick pony.
At 28 years of age, and now peaking in maturity as a rider, and after having dominated the ITT discipline since 2011 and certainly even since 2010 when he was beginning to get consistently good results, he is now at a stage in his career where he can be developed as something even more. Indeed, Patrick Lefevere inferred in a tv interview in Dubai earlier in the season that the team would be looking to develop Tony Martin into a classics rider if not exactly a classics specialist. Whilst the mug interviewer didn’t draw out further the subject to give us more information into what management were exactly thinking with Martin, and whilst it is conjecture on my part, we can find a pattern of racing from him, at least from last year, which suggests that he holds no fear of hilly races such as that which he will find here, and indeed has shown that hilly races might suit his developing characteristics in order to prolong his career in the saddle.
Only recently, in fact in his last race in the Tour of the Basque Country, he got his first win of the season when soloing to victory from a break on a hilly course much more difficult than this one, since it included two cat 2 climbs, a cat 3 and a cat 1, not to mention the rolling hills covering the final 40 kms. Whilst he got some assistance from team-mate Bakelants to attack Gorka Izagirre and get away on his own, what was a telling factor of his strength on undulating terrain was that he increased his lead in the last 10 kms, even though he faced a climb equally as problematic as the 900m long and 7.5% slope gradient which is the Cauberg, and which he will face twice in the final stages of this race, but four times in total. The final ITT stage 6 in this particular tour, was no pancake flat course which Martin has always been salivating over. Whilst short at 26 kms, there were two climbs of equal distance and gradient of slope at about 4 kms and 6.5% average.
---
A 60km solo over mountains. Marvelous scenes. The Panzerwagon did good. I rest my case.
Will be interesting to see how Purito picks himself up for stage 10, he worked hard hunting down de Marchi for points, and looked fatigued by the finish. He obviously wants to salvage something from this Tour and the polkadot jersey is prestigious and would make a good consolation prize, but I'd like to see how he backs up on another tough day in the mountains. Think that he might be a little too short too early. But I'm not really in this market, only the small Edet at ante-post.
Cheers,
SP
However Machado worked hard once on the flat approach toward the finish, and in such a big group with such strong riders like Spartacus and GVA to name just two, he was never going to land a good bet by finishing 2nd, or 3rd. Just for the forum regulars, a final reminder so we can put my theory to bed once and for all, since the evidence is no longer required:
---
8 Apr 14 10:48 SwingingPick
Tony Martin hasn’t ridden a one day classic all season and it looks like this one is going to be his one and only, at least until one or two of his home German classics (or indeed even the Worlds race) come around much later in the season. Martin doesn’t ride the pave and whilst he has ridden in the odd Flanders classic in his long career, his only one day classic win came in the same region of Holland as the AGR, in the 185 km Volta Limburg Classic in 2008, at a time when he was being developed as an ITT specialist. Of the one-day classics he has ridden repeatedly, the Ardennes classics come to focus, and particularly the AGR, which he has been involved in from 2008 to 2010, finishing 147/99/106. Not exactly impressive results, but certainly expected results from a rider who has been a very successful one-trick pony.
At 28 years of age, and now peaking in maturity as a rider, and after having dominated the ITT discipline since 2011 and certainly even since 2010 when he was beginning to get consistently good results, he is now at a stage in his career where he can be developed as something even more. Indeed, Patrick Lefevere inferred in a tv interview in Dubai earlier in the season that the team would be looking to develop Tony Martin into a classics rider if not exactly a classics specialist. Whilst the mug interviewer didn’t draw out further the subject to give us more information into what management were exactly thinking with Martin, and whilst it is conjecture on my part, we can find a pattern of racing from him, at least from last year, which suggests that he holds no fear of hilly races such as that which he will find here, and indeed has shown that hilly races might suit his developing characteristics in order to prolong his career in the saddle.
Only recently, in fact in his last race in the Tour of the Basque Country, he got his first win of the season when soloing to victory from a break on a hilly course much more difficult than this one, since it included two cat 2 climbs, a cat 3 and a cat 1, not to mention the rolling hills covering the final 40 kms. Whilst he got some assistance from team-mate Bakelants to attack Gorka Izagirre and get away on his own, what was a telling factor of his strength on undulating terrain was that he increased his lead in the last 10 kms, even though he faced a climb equally as problematic as the 900m long and 7.5% slope gradient which is the Cauberg, and which he will face twice in the final stages of this race, but four times in total. The final ITT stage 6 in this particular tour, was no pancake flat course which Martin has always been salivating over. Whilst short at 26 kms, there were two climbs of equal distance and gradient of slope at about 4 kms and 6.5% average.
---
A 60km solo over mountains. Marvelous scenes. The Panzerwagon did good. I rest my case.
Will be interesting to see how Purito picks himself up for stage 10, he worked hard hunting down de Marchi for points, and looked fatigued by the finish. He obviously wants to salvage something from this Tour and the polkadot jersey is prestigious and would make a good consolation prize, but I'd like to see how he backs up on another tough day in the mountains. Think that he might be a little too short too early. But I'm not really in this market, only the small Edet at ante-post.
Cheers,
SP
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