TdF Stage 7.

The second-longest stage of the Tour, the 235km stage 7 from Epernay to Nancy is somewhat similar to the 2012 stage 6 from Epernay to Metz which was considered a flat stage, and which Sagan won when he out-sprinted Greipel (who was involved in two crashes) and Goss, from a nine-man select group of sprinters.

Unlike in 2012 where the one and only cat.4 climb came roughly in the middle, this year there are two cat.4 climbs and both are close to the conclusion of the stage, the first coming 17kms from the finish and the second 6kms from the finish, and it is this final climb at 1.3kms long and at a 7.9% slope gradient, which should be the staging point for another bar-room brawl scenario for the puncheur-type characters, which might also include the GC contenders.

The main puncheur-type riders fancied for the stage, may be drawn into a selection on the first climb by a nervous situation or a move to bring back the long-range breakaway if there is some panic. In either scenario, I don't believe that even with the advantage the peloton offers the riders in the form of protection from more wind and rain forecast, that it will be a finale for the sprinters' teams. The final climb looks to severe for them to keep a gap small enough to close in 6kms, especially since initially the puncheurs will look to combine properly.

***Greg Van Avermaet Crashed in the pave stage prior to the first sector so was too far back to come back into the race and finished in 97th place, but importantly he reported that he was pain and injury free, and confirmed this by taking his fifth top-20 finish in six stages. Came close to his first Tour win with an impressive 2nd place finish in stage 2. Riding very consistently. Likely to make presence felt. One of the best. 33/1 E/W (Lads). Excellent value.

**Michal Kwiatkowski Rode the finale of stage 6 a little selfishly by clearing away off the front of the peloton on his own in highly impressive fashion, and arguably failing team-mate Renshaw by doing so, however the Polish rider’s display of speed and strength was a major improvement on his AGR ride where his top-end power was found a little suspect after being brought back by Valverde on the flat finale, and then being jumped by Jelle Vanendert. Showed a small sign of such improvement when 3rd in stage 2 here, also. Spoiling for a bruising encounter. Excellent prospects. 18/1 E/W (various). 15/1 okay.

*Peter Sagan Riding ultra-consistently and displaying his expansive characteristics by figuring in all types of finishes: 2/4/2/4/4/5. Will be advantaged by marshalling his troops on the front in service of him. Deserving of short-priced favouritism. Highly likely to figure in the finish. May be prudent to include as a WIN ONLY saver. 11/4 (various).

Good luck to all,
SP