Is there any other sport where...

He'd have been alright back in the days when they based it on points instead of cumulative time.

Won't be betting on this again, ridiculous, and as you seem to know, why were they all given the same times when clearly they didn't finish at the same time, the leaders I mean...

You didn't back Kittel to be Tour de France winner did you? :)

Hard to get 200+ people on bikes over the line at the same time on a 20 metre road, so time gaps are measured on splits between the riders.

I backed him to lay him off but the price hasn't budged ffs!! :-)

There's three or four races within the main race.

Kittel will be going for stage wins and the green points jersey. He's a beast of a man and about 30 kilos heavier than some of the favourites for the outright win, so as soon as the route goes uphill his bulk counts against him and he'll lose contact with the leaders of the race.

Worth keeping at it, as there are lots of big prices to be had in cycling.

yeah stick at it legit - maybe your boy will be able to win by bigger margins once they get into the mountains?

Surely this is a wind up?

Jul 8, 2014 -- 5:58PM, LEGIT wrote:

I backed him to lay him off but the price hasn't budged ffs!! :-)

LOL. Where is the head in hand man when you need it.

why would you bet on something you have absolutely no clue about, and then moan when you lose?

Who are you the gambling policeman? **** off troll!

What price did you get Legit cause if it was 999/1 you where short changed
Should be a million.

My book is green anyway thanks!
The point was just to make it clear as some people seem confused is that it was a trade bet and Kittel surpassed expectations winning three out of four legs, having no experience in the market one would expect someone winning three out of four legs in any sport would lower in price from 999/1 to even 989/1 wasn't the case lesson learnt!

Legit he could have won the 1st 7 stages and his price still wouldnt have budged.
AS you are now probably aware his strength/muscle/build that his asset on the flat  is a major negative going uphill.

Considering I laid Froome, and crashes take place all the time and anyone, however good can leave the building so to speak, I think it is bad pricing, although obviously the experience has been noted, considering there are so many legs and it ony takes a second to end the hopes of any favourite it is astonishing at how big the margins are between the participants...

When you say bad pricing?
Who by the layer?
Hes laying you 999/1 cause the machine wont let him lay 9999/1 plus.
Id say its bad punting.
You could have 100 drop out of the race/crash take ill etc and kitell still wouldnt have a prayer.

You don't seem to understand what I am saying, I understand Kittel is not going to win and I understood that when I backed him and I didn't back him thinking that he was going to win but with an exceptional start (which he had), his price would at least fall a bit!

I made a book and have backed and layed many riders and I repeat the margins are far to high between the riders for the length of race and the likelihood that say the two favs currently who are taking 80% of the total book can easily crash between now and the 21st stage...

I understand what your saying .
You dont seem to understand what im saying.
He could win the 1st 7 stages and still be 999/1.
He is never going to trade less than 999/1.

An exceptional start ?
He was in the lead by holding the yellow jersey but had the same time as about 90% of the others.
He could have finished 150th on the 1st stage and still have recorded the same time

I got that!

What I am saying is that in reality it is a layers paradise cos the margins irrespective of time can disappear in a second with a crash Contrador and Vittel who are both 6/4 can fall out of the race anytime and a huge price can land.

Two horses priced at 6/4 have 5f to 4m to hold on these guys have 1000s of kilometres to do the same thing, it is a very different thing and far far less likely than a 6/4 chance imo.

Suggest you should have checked the form book Legit.
I dont know exactly where he finished last year but I think he was in the last 10 overall.
As previously stated that requires a hell of a lot of fallers b4 he even becomes a 999/1 shot.

Where not getting anywhere in this conversation are we geoff, you are repeating yourself on a subject that is closed as I have accepted your point.

Maybe, we'll have a chat when its done and you might actually understand my point on the OTHER matter by then...

LEGIT, The reality is that the time differences are very big on uphill stages but very small or non-existant on flat stages.

So the men who win flat stages (sprinters) will never win stage races where there is even one mountain stage. Kittel could win 20 stages in the Tour (if there was a Tour where they put 20 flat stages in for some reason) but he wouldn't make any time on the other riders, and then in the one mountain stage he would lose an hour and come virtually last overall.

In this race there are several mountain stages and he and the other sprinters will finish literally hours behind the climbers on cumulative time.

I accept that MC, I am undoubtedly a novice on cycling hence my surprise at what happened, that said the pricing of outright winners is crazy bearing in mind the point I made earlier.

And as Froome has proved already...

The reality is that time differences in flat stages are minimal or non-existant and becuase the riders are going so much slower, the time differences on uphill stages are huge, so this is where stages races with climbing are won and lost.

That means that fast men like Kittel, Cav etc can never win stage races like the Tour. Even if they won 20 of 21 stages (if there ever was a Tour de France with 21 flat stages) they would still lose bags of time on the 1 remaining mountain stage.

On this race, with several mountain stages, the top 10 in the yellow jersey classification will be probably separated by less than 10 minutes by Paris, but Kittel has already lost more than that, he and the other fast men will be literally hours behind the winner.

Everyone knows this and the price on him to win was never going to be anything other than 999/1.

sorry I typed that out and pressed reply but it never appeared so I wrote it out again

Who do you think will win it?

LEGIT, yes you're right about Froome being very short. I felt he was. There was always more potential for overall contenders in this race to abandon because of several tricky stages at the start.

However, short priced favourites have won the last two Tours de France, as well as the Giro d'Italia this year so I can see why people were backing Froome.

Nibali might lose time to Contador in the mountains but has a very big lead. I don't think Contador will make up much time in the time trial either so he might have to do some sort of ambush attack, as winning a few seconds here and there won't cut it, especially with no time bonuses.

There's a long way to go yet though, plenty can happen.

there are always some riders more likely to crash than others, you should know them when betting.

While everyone would agree you shouldnt back something you dont fully understand, it is a bit disingenuous to allow layers to offer such prices on non-triers. Cant think of another sport where its that blatant. Maybe an 'any other' bet would be fairer to backers.

You can back horses that have fallen at 1000 so as Kittel is in the race then he technically could win. Having said that, I'd argue he shouldn't even really be in the market but generally if something is available to back at 1000 than means he is unlikely to win under any circumstances and that certainly applied here.

After Cavedish won the world Championship he was matched to win the next year's tdf at some quite short prices as i recall and again of course the true price was over 1000/1.

Hadnt thought of horses falling but then again you couldnt expect betfair to take out runners mid race. Dont get me wrong i havent really got a problem with layers pinching off the uninformed anyway (i help fund them most weeks!), just i noticed on oddscheckr you cant back most of the tdf field except on exchanges, so maybe they could do a bit more to protect backers when something is way over 1000/1 and not even trying.

Depends where you stop it. I've been backing at 1000/1 on riders who don't have a cat in hells chance of winning if all goes to plan, but there's always the chance of an Oscar Pereiro popping up. Mind you my best placed rider at that price is 18 minutes down before we've even got to the mountains. I think in this case Betfair doesn't have a clue about cycling so they've populated the market with the well known riders.

It's a bit unfair to say that those like Kittel aren't trying as when we get to the mountain stages they may well be going over into the red just to stay within the race as the time limit looms.

I just don't understand the mentality. Why would you back something at 1000 then complain that it had no chance of winning in the first place, especially in a sport that you admit you don't understand?

Do you think there are people that go round just leaving money up at random at 1000 and some of them really should be 5/1?

If it's 1000 it's 1000 for a reason and if you don't know why it's 1000 normally it's you not them that needs to do more research.

Think Horner traded as high as 500's for the Vuelta. Admittedly that was a completely different issue.

Bf dont list every runner for the points or mountain stages. You can have riders added to the list though so i suppose if backers or layers (im guessing layers) specifically asked for everyone to be added then its fair to give them that option.

I know kittel is 'trying', just that hes got no intentions of winning the tdf which makes it a weird proposition on a market where people are negotiating price on the tdf winner. Maybe betfair are doing their best under unique circumstances though.

This vehicle is reversing

today's market for the yellow jersey shows BF market operators are clueless just listing the top5 of GC, with Sagan having no chance, but without Contador, Rui Costa, Porte and Valverde

just seen this

LEGIT you need to realise that sprinters like Kittel are there to get stage wins for their sponsors and his team is more or less set up entirely for this and not to win the TDF. Quite often sprinters like him don't even finish the race, getting stage wins in the early flat stages, sponsors happy, and then dying in the mountain stages. To win the TDF you need a team set up to do so, it is not won by an individual alone, however strong he might be. Kittel's price is almost as much a reflection on his team's qualities and objectives as his own ability. They have no intention of going for the overall win.

Froome was about 1.78 starting last year but his SP of about 2.1 this year was a much better lay given the relative state of his support team and opposition going into the race.

and btw the rule is if you finish in a bunch you get the same time as the first rider. If you finish more than 1 sec behind the last rider in the bunch then your time is the difference between the first rider in the bunch and your actual time.

LURKA, thanks for that...

Just like to point out that's two odds on favourites crashed out so far only 11 stages to go is there?

only another 100 or so to go Legit and you should be able to trade out that 999/1 Kittel.

LOL I traded a lot more than I stand to lose on Kittel on Kwaliskowski bought at 160 sold at 16 plus collecting lays on Froome and Contador so this cycling lark ain't all that bad at the end of the day!

And whilst I am here GEOFF M, lemme give you a tip from a novice one of the French boys is gonna win this..

I'd lay that all day ;)

Out of interest LEGIT what price did you lay Nibali at? Thought I'd help out as it's considered decent form in these parts to post these things up prior to the event.

Cumulative lay at 1.79 so far, as to decent form I've yet to see much on these forums in all these years and it is not exactly like I am giving tips, I am just discussing a sport I know little about...

discussing a sport I know little about...

Which is why you fit in so nicely...

Next time you are doing stand lemme know so I can bring some hankies.