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I'm totally shocked that Cavendish isn't favourite here?? And i think the 3/1 available is an absolute gift.
Cav wants to win this stage so bad, and I see no reason why he won't win it. It will undoubtedly end in a sprint finish and i expect OPQS to excute this stage to perfection, as i hear they have done a lot of work on this. There are 3 climbs and they are not insignificant, but Cav has ridden them and i don't expect him to have any problems there. Where as his main rival Kittel, the surprising favourite, may well struggle on the climbs as he does not go uphill at all well. I also don't think Kittel is in the same shape he was in earlier in the year, as though he did win a stage at ZLR he didn't look to be the flying machine he was.
All in all to me 3/1 Cav is too good to miss.
Cav wants to win this stage so bad, and I see no reason why he won't win it. It will undoubtedly end in a sprint finish and i expect OPQS to excute this stage to perfection, as i hear they have done a lot of work on this. There are 3 climbs and they are not insignificant, but Cav has ridden them and i don't expect him to have any problems there. Where as his main rival Kittel, the surprising favourite, may well struggle on the climbs as he does not go uphill at all well. I also don't think Kittel is in the same shape he was in earlier in the year, as though he did win a stage at ZLR he didn't look to be the flying machine he was.
All in all to me 3/1 Cav is too good to miss.
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I think Kittel has the edge if he's 100%. Not too sure what his condition is though. On the face of it you'd have thought it's the Tour so he'll be spot on for it but he was apparently suffering from cramps on the last lap of the German nationals which isn't encouraging. Maybe win or nowhere for him. Amazingly Cavendish has never won a sprint that Kittel contested. Kittel's weakness is his positioning but that shouldn't be an issue here because the finish is a pretty straight, fairly slow, uphill slog. It's more a question of not being in front too soon here.
It's probably between these two as the market suggests. The two of them combined is about a 1.8 shot currently which looks good to me although I'll have a bit more on Kittel. The finish suits Greipel well also but he's mainly been competing in lower level races this season (due to injury) and it may take him a few stages to get up to the level required to beat the other two. Probably going to be wet unfortunately but that shouldn't affect the result
It's probably between these two as the market suggests. The two of them combined is about a 1.8 shot currently which looks good to me although I'll have a bit more on Kittel. The finish suits Greipel well also but he's mainly been competing in lower level races this season (due to injury) and it may take him a few stages to get up to the level required to beat the other two. Probably going to be wet unfortunately but that shouldn't affect the result
Well im not sure taking prices prior to the race is the best strategy for Cav or Kittel.
Buttertubs is probably 1.01 to see them dropped from the pelton and i will be surprised if the teams manage to get them back on to the peleton by the time they climb Grinton Moor .
That said their teams have around 60k to team time trial em back in to contention.
Well ive picked me 2 viewing spots just outside Aysgarth and Leyburn just hope get there early enough to secure a good spot, cant wait.Bring it on!
Buttertubs is probably 1.01 to see them dropped from the pelton and i will be surprised if the teams manage to get them back on to the peleton by the time they climb Grinton Moor .
That said their teams have around 60k to team time trial em back in to contention.
Well ive picked me 2 viewing spots just outside Aysgarth and Leyburn just hope get there early enough to secure a good spot, cant wait.Bring it on!
GoBallistic still talking nonsense I see. 
It's not a good look before the first stage winner has even been posted.
Amazingly Cavendish has never won a sprint that Kittel contested.
Better look into in the Tour de France 2013 Stage 13 and Stage 5, and stage 2 of the 2012 Tour.
It's not a good look before the first stage winner has even been posted. Amazingly Cavendish has never won a sprint that Kittel contested.
Better look into in the Tour de France 2013 Stage 13 and Stage 5, and stage 2 of the 2012 Tour.
gonna be in Harrogate to cheer on Cav into Yellow. well i hope anyway.
In case it doesnt result in the predicted Cav/Kittel showdown i shall have a saver on Kristoff @25/1
In case it doesnt result in the predicted Cav/Kittel showdown i shall have a saver on Kristoff @25/1
The Manx bout of bronchitis was reportedly so bad it prevented him from defending his RR Nationals title in the British National Road Championship, recently. Kittel at least rode the German National Road Championship recently, however he went out the back toward the finish when his legs began to fold with cramps.
Yes, there's some concern with taking an early position on the race as Geoff suggests, in regard to the sprinters as the climbs might pose some problems, but that chance is priced-in. If there were no climbs whatsoever you'd have the Manx at odds on and shortening, and the others not far away.
Greipel didn't look very supple in the German RR Nationals which he won, and the finish here won't be entirely to his liking, but he should beat the other two, I think. But even if it doesn't come back together, and CAN should be working hard to not make that happen because the finish is made-to-order for Sagan, and he looks very fine to me coming out of Switzerland. Sagan is the best of both scenarios here, keep away and win, or win by the tough drag to the finish suiting him more.
With some luck, there is every possibility that Sagan holds the Yellow Jersey for the entirety of the first week of racing. It's a big call, and some of that might be the excitement of the race starting so soon, but the value is there for stage 1 glory, to get started. Think Modolo is overpriced at 33/1 and will have a saver.
Good luck to all,
SP
Yes, there's some concern with taking an early position on the race as Geoff suggests, in regard to the sprinters as the climbs might pose some problems, but that chance is priced-in. If there were no climbs whatsoever you'd have the Manx at odds on and shortening, and the others not far away.
Greipel didn't look very supple in the German RR Nationals which he won, and the finish here won't be entirely to his liking, but he should beat the other two, I think. But even if it doesn't come back together, and CAN should be working hard to not make that happen because the finish is made-to-order for Sagan, and he looks very fine to me coming out of Switzerland. Sagan is the best of both scenarios here, keep away and win, or win by the tough drag to the finish suiting him more.
With some luck, there is every possibility that Sagan holds the Yellow Jersey for the entirety of the first week of racing. It's a big call, and some of that might be the excitement of the race starting so soon, but the value is there for stage 1 glory, to get started. Think Modolo is overpriced at 33/1 and will have a saver.
Good luck to all,
SP
Better look into in the Tour de France 2013 Stage 13 and Stage 5, and stage 2 of the 2012 Tour. Laugh
Arrogant and wrong to boot. Not a great combination
Amazingly Cavendish has never won a sprint that Kittel contested
Cav still won the sprint and beat Kittel in those races -- what you mean is that Cav has never won a sprint against Kittel where Cav went on to win the race, since both riders have been involved in sprints where Cav has beaten Kittel but not won the race. Look at: GP Jan van Heeswijk for 2013 and 2012 in the same 2nd stages. And also in 2011 Scheldeprijs.
Essentially, what you're inferring is that had Kittel made the sprint on those other occasions I brought to your attention, things might have been different for Cav in so far as he would not have won the stage, which is absurd. I believe you'll find that you're the one that is wrong!
Wrong early and often -- a decidedly bleak combination, indeed.
Cheers,
SP
Essentially, what you're inferring is that had Kittel made the sprint on those other occasions I brought to your attention, things might have been different for Cav in so far as he would not have won the stage, which is absurd.
I believe you'll find that you're the one that is wrong! Wrong early and often -- a decidedly bleak combination, indeed.
Cheers,
SP
I love the fact that you wasted time looking it up. And still got it wrong.
Most people would stop and think "what am I missing here?". And eventually for most people (those that were daft enough to look it up in the first place) the penny would drop before they made a t1t of themselves
Most pleasing that you were the exception
Most people would stop and think "what am I missing here?". And eventually for most people (those that were daft enough to look it up in the first place) the penny would drop before they made a t1t of themselves
Most pleasing that you were the exception
You cannot accept that you are wrong, grasping at the definition of contested and still being wrong.
I didn't waste any time at all, if I wasn't looking at those particular details I'd be looking at something else, so I don't see that following information is a waste of time at all in all honesty.
A waste of time would be following information which was wrong in the first place, much like what you've presented here.
What's pleasing for me is that you cannot accept that you were wrong, because it tells me that you lie to yourself.
Cheers,
SP
I didn't waste any time at all, if I wasn't looking at those particular details I'd be looking at something else, so I don't see that following information is a waste of time at all in all honesty.
A waste of time would be following information which was wrong in the first place, much like what you've presented here.
What's pleasing for me is that you cannot accept that you were wrong, because it tells me that you lie to yourself.
Cheers,
SP
I've taken the opinion early on that this is not a stage or a finish for Kittel. Cavendish should be favourite but I think we might see the sprinters who can deal with climbs come to the fore.
I backed Sagan at 22/1 with Paddy Power two weeks ago and have also added Demare 19s on here. Degenkolb could be a big danger as well.
Laying Kittel.
I backed Sagan at 22/1 with Paddy Power two weeks ago and have also added Demare 19s on here. Degenkolb could be a big danger as well.
Laying Kittel.
I've really struggled with counting out Kittel because the race goes over a bridge before. I'm tempted to lay him heavily for the outright but can't bring myself to do it. I've gone with the theory that if he's not going to win he'll not come in the top 3 so I've layed at 1.8x.
Avoiding incidents and poor positioning Demare should be fighting it out whatever the situation with Cav/Kittel so top 3 at 4's is what I'm going with today.
Good luck all.
Avoiding incidents and poor positioning Demare should be fighting it out whatever the situation with Cav/Kittel so top 3 at 4's is what I'm going with today.
Good luck all.
Kristoff & JD small for me today.
Think it is a harder run in than everyone suspects.
We shall see...
Think it is a harder run in than everyone suspects.
We shall see...
Cav J-Rod & Pinot dropped on the Buttertubs.
Cannondale & Lotto drilling it.
Cannondale & Lotto drilling it.
Have got Purito for KOM in my predictor comp. Looks like everyone is back on.
is it me or have there been loads of advert breaks, seems to be one every five minutes.
I've been waiting for one for ages, I'm dying for a toilet break. Fantastic to see the crowds and scenery. Amazing.
Indeed, it is amazing, we just need the manx missile to be launched to top it off.
I'm:
Kittel big red
Cav £0
field nice green
Demare big green
Sagan 22/1 ew Pads
Kittel big red
Cav £0
field nice green
Demare big green
Sagan 22/1 ew Pads
not a good start, place money from Sagan is scant consolation there
Grim from a P/L pov and Cav looks like he's out of the tour. Welcome to Yorkshire!
Looked totally Cav's fault there. He was leaning all over Gerrans.
I reckon Cavendish is totally to blame there.
Caused crash through huge recklessness
Caused crash through huge recklessness
Fully expected to win in England ,and hit the panic button as he was in a hopeless position .No sympathy whatsoever for him.
Gerrans started leaning on Cav and then Cav leaned back to stop losing the sprint. Would have been fine between the two but the Europcar rider pushed Gerrans the other way and it was curtains.
Great win for Kittel though, I've been stung again backing against Kittel on an incline. You'd think I would learn.
Great win for Kittel though, I've been stung again backing against Kittel on an incline. You'd think I would learn.
Very surprised Kittel won that. Spartacus looks in cracking form though.
Also, Kwiatowski lost 2.30mins according to the letour.com classifications. Still loads of money trying to back him at 4/1 for white jersey too.
Also, Kwiatowski lost 2.30mins according to the letour.com classifications. Still loads of money trying to back him at 4/1 for white jersey too.
SwingingPick 19 Jun 14 07:00
The Manx was involved in the inevitable crash the ninety-degree turns would bring in the finale, however he is looking like an increasingly reckless rider, and while this crash wasn't his fault he looks like he might cause them in the Tour. Good to see Kristoff up there, although he never threatened.
...That was on the Switzerland thread, so no surprises from me. Cav is a dangerous rider and should face a strong penalty for that. Gerrans might have been a prime selection for tomorrow's stage.
Sagan got out to 11/1, which was surprising since he was always going to figure in the finish on a such run-in. Went out way too ealry and that's what has cost him in the end. SP
The Manx was involved in the inevitable crash the ninety-degree turns would bring in the finale, however he is looking like an increasingly reckless rider, and while this crash wasn't his fault he looks like he might cause them in the Tour. Good to see Kristoff up there, although he never threatened.
...That was on the Switzerland thread, so no surprises from me. Cav is a dangerous rider and should face a strong penalty for that. Gerrans might have been a prime selection for tomorrow's stage.
Sagan got out to 11/1, which was surprising since he was always going to figure in the finish on a such run-in. Went out way too ealry and that's what has cost him in the end. SP
Kwiatkowski involved in or blocked by the crash, no time lost in GC
fantastic day out in Harrogate, managed a spot 150m from the finish.
Looked like OPQS played their hand a little early on an uphill finish that would always favour a late finisher. What were Cofidis up to with their 3 man attack at the 3km pole?
Cav's crash looked like mostly his fault, obviously out now but wish him a speedy recovery.
Congrats to Kittel who is so strong.
Highlights of the day :
Jensie going for it, that sprint to the top of the climb when we expected him to ease up and he really went for it
Spartacus taking it to the sprinters with 1km to go
The amazing crowds throughout the route
Low point
Harrogate train station which really wasnt geared up to cope with the numbers
Looked like OPQS played their hand a little early on an uphill finish that would always favour a late finisher. What were Cofidis up to with their 3 man attack at the 3km pole?
Cav's crash looked like mostly his fault, obviously out now but wish him a speedy recovery.
Congrats to Kittel who is so strong.
Highlights of the day :
Jensie going for it, that sprint to the top of the climb when we expected him to ease up and he really went for it
Spartacus taking it to the sprinters with 1km to go
The amazing crowds throughout the route
Low point
Harrogate train station which really wasnt geared up to cope with the numbers
By the way Cavendish did admit the crash was 100% his fault, and said he texted then rang Gerrans last night to apologise and wish him well.
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